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2030: How Today's Biggest Trends Will Collide and Reshape the Future of Everything

par Mauro F. Guillén

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""Bold, provocative...illuminates why we're having fewer babies, the middle class is stagnating, unemployment is shifting, and new powers are rising." - Adam Grant The world you know is about to end-will you be prepared for what comes next? A groundbreaking analysis from one of the world's foremost experts on global trends. Once upon a time, the world was neatly divided into prosperous and backward economies. Babies were plentiful, workers outnumbered retirees, and people aspiring towards the middle class yearned to own homes and cars. Companies didn't need to see any further than Europe and the United States to do well. Printed money was legal tender for all debts, public and private. We grew up learning how to "play the game," and we expected the rules to remain the same as we took our first job, started a family, saw our children grow up, and went into retirement with our finances secure. That world-and those rules-are over. By 2030, a new reality will take hold, and before you know it: - There will be more grandparents than grandchildren - The middle-class in Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa will outnumber the US and Europe combined - The global economy will be driven by the non-Western consumer for the first time in modern history - There will be more global wealth owned by women than men - There will be more robots than workers - There will be more computers than human brains - There will be more currencies than countries All these trends, currently underway, will converge in the year 2030 and change everything you know about culture, the economy, and the world. According to Mauro F. Guillen, the only way to truly understand the global transformations underway-and their impacts-is to think laterally. That is, using "peripheral vision," or approaching problems creatively and from unorthodox points of view. Rather than focusing on a single trend-climate-change or the rise of illiberal regimes, for example-Guillen encourages us to consider the dynamic inter-play between a range of forces that will converge on a single tipping point-2030-that will be, for better or worse, the point of no return. 2030 is both a remarkable guide to the coming changes and an exercise in the power of "lateral thinking," thereby revolutionizing the way you think about cataclysmic change and its consequences"--… (plus d'informations)
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Despite its futurist-sounding title, the book mostly covers subjects whose trends are so far along as to be “inevitable”, as the title of author Kevin Kelly’s forecast book claims. This makes it a good overview of the present, and I thought it was a helpful and highly-readable guide to the biggest trends happening now.

See my detailed review


( )
  richardSprague | Mar 26, 2022 |
I was rather disappointed in this - I expected more. None of the trends mentioned in here are very surprising and often there's a fair bit of handwaving of this will happen - but without any real delve into what that might change as of 2030. My audiobook did have a brief update mentioning Covid but just to say it would accelerate all these trends - not sure I'm convinced by that. I have a few other books to read on tech trends so hope they are less disappointing. ( )
  infjsarah | May 31, 2021 |
Not particularly impressed. I wanted to be, just wasn't. It's a nice overview of interesting topics to look out for over the next couple of years, but it doesn't scratch the surface for any of them. Any reader of The Economist won't find any of these discussions particularly novel.

There are some really odd jabs. The author mentions that millennials won't know what CDs are, which is a bizarre statement.

When talking about crypto, he doesn't seem to grasp one of the key selling points—that it's trustless. None of the examples he gave require any sort of a trustless ledger. ( )
  saimaus | Apr 19, 2021 |
This was interesting, but I'd be lying if I said it was mind-blowing. It is essentially a review of the demographic shifts occurring the world, and speculation as to how said world will have to adapt to those shifts. (My guess is, it will adapt very poorly. Civilization is great at adapting in the long term, and really awful at doing so in the short term.) ( )
  jarlalex | Nov 25, 2020 |
A savvy futurist's look at what he thinks the world will be like in 2030. Some of his major topics include immigration (and why it is beneficial), the role of women, the elderly. rentalism, and paperless economies among other topics. He concludes with tips about how to adapt and thrive in this future. Whether we like it or not most of these changes are coming so the book is a very helpful field guide for the future.I am really glad I am too old to see many of these changes come to fruition. Still a very stimulating read.. ( )
  muddyboy | Sep 13, 2020 |
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""Bold, provocative...illuminates why we're having fewer babies, the middle class is stagnating, unemployment is shifting, and new powers are rising." - Adam Grant The world you know is about to end-will you be prepared for what comes next? A groundbreaking analysis from one of the world's foremost experts on global trends. Once upon a time, the world was neatly divided into prosperous and backward economies. Babies were plentiful, workers outnumbered retirees, and people aspiring towards the middle class yearned to own homes and cars. Companies didn't need to see any further than Europe and the United States to do well. Printed money was legal tender for all debts, public and private. We grew up learning how to "play the game," and we expected the rules to remain the same as we took our first job, started a family, saw our children grow up, and went into retirement with our finances secure. That world-and those rules-are over. By 2030, a new reality will take hold, and before you know it: - There will be more grandparents than grandchildren - The middle-class in Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa will outnumber the US and Europe combined - The global economy will be driven by the non-Western consumer for the first time in modern history - There will be more global wealth owned by women than men - There will be more robots than workers - There will be more computers than human brains - There will be more currencies than countries All these trends, currently underway, will converge in the year 2030 and change everything you know about culture, the economy, and the world. According to Mauro F. Guillen, the only way to truly understand the global transformations underway-and their impacts-is to think laterally. That is, using "peripheral vision," or approaching problems creatively and from unorthodox points of view. Rather than focusing on a single trend-climate-change or the rise of illiberal regimes, for example-Guillen encourages us to consider the dynamic inter-play between a range of forces that will converge on a single tipping point-2030-that will be, for better or worse, the point of no return. 2030 is both a remarkable guide to the coming changes and an exercise in the power of "lateral thinking," thereby revolutionizing the way you think about cataclysmic change and its consequences"--

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