Russia: international moves, W responses, Putin...Ukraine...China...internal devts. 16

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 8:58 AM · Jan 16, 2024:
Ukrainian patriot. Advisor to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine. Founder of the Institute of the Future. Official enemy of Russian propaganda

Dmitriy Vinnik, a professor of the Department of Humanities at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, suggests banning fact-checking, critical thinking, feminism and pacifism courses in Russia for being "Russophobic":

"There should be a revision of state assignments, curricula for compliance with the values of our society and the interests of our state. All gender, feminist, postmodernist and pacifist topics and courses should be simply abolished."

Also, according to the professor, "the imposed foreign courses of so-called critical thinking and fact-checking, which have nothing to do with philosophical skepticism or logic," should be abolished. "In fact, this is a course of applied Russophobia," Vinnik believes.

I wonder what will be banned next in Russia?

Photo ( https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1747256913728016811/photo/1 )

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 5:12 AM · Jan 16, 2024:

Putin's eldest daughter earned $10.73 million during three years of owning the New Medical Company (NOMECO), — Current Time with reference to Navalny's associates investigation.

Maria Vorontsova who has a PhD in medical sciences and an endocrinologist by education, received 944 million rubles ($10.73 million) in dividends and wages over her three years in the NOMECO company, associates of the opposition activist Alexei Navalny calculated.

After the formation of NOMECO in 2019, Maria Vorontsova, as a member of the Board of Directors and one of the five co-founders of the company, regularly received high paychecks.

Navalny's associates found out that the main source of income for NOMECO was cooperation with the Sogaz clinic.

"The generosity and involvement in state affairs of the Sogaz clinic can be explained simply: among its owners was Putin's friend Yuri Kovalchuk," Georgy Alburov, a member of Navalny's team's investigations department, said.

He recalled the Radio Liberty investigation, which claimed that Sogaz serviced the Russian president's closest friends, heads of the Federal Security Service, Federation Council Speaker Valentina Matvienko and other representatives of the Russian ruling elite.

Earlier, the Mozhem Obyasnit project found that the firms of Putin's daughters, Maria Vorontsova and Katerina Tikhonova, earned more than 1.2 billion rubles ($13.64 million) in 2022, a financial record for these companies since their founding.

Photo ( https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1747200055428137190/photo/1 )

Steve Rosenberg @BBCSteveR | 1:39 AM · Jan 15, 2024:
Russia Editor for BBC News. Moscow.

This morning an electronic billboard on my way to work is displaying this Putin quote: “Russia’s borders do not end anywhere.”

Photo ( https://twitter.com/BBCSteveR/status/1746784252312891463/photo/1 )

Russia's slamming Ukrainian civilians and infratructure with many missiles, and Medvedev statement of Russian intent below, almost seem calculated to renew flow of western weapons to Ukraine??

Oleksandr Polianichev @OPolianichev | 7:27 AM · Jan 17, 2024:
Historian of Tsarist Russia and colonialism at @sodertorn | PhD from @EUI_History | Writing a book on Ukraine and empire

Here we go. Dmitry Medvedev writes on Telegram that Russia will deny any form of Ukrainian statehood, "Nazi" or not. The existence of any independent Ukrainian polity on "historical Russian territories" is impossible. 1/
Text, Russian ( https://twitter.com/OPolianichev/status/1747596403944136995/photo/1 )

The further preservation of Ukraine, a "cancerous growth" on the Russian body, will be a reason for Russia to invade again, regardless of any security guarantees Ukraine may receive. 2/
Text, Ru ( https://twitter.com/OPolianichev/status/1747596406762750456/photo/1 )

The only choice the Ukrainians are offered is to embrace Russia or accept their "inevitable death." 3/
Text, Ru
https://twitter.com/OPolianichev/status/1747596409556041734/photo/1
https://twitter.com/OPolianichev/status/1747596409556041734/photo/2
------------------------------------------

Jessica Berlin @berlin_bridge | 7:09 AM · Jan 17, 2024:
Security & geopolitics | Past work & life in 🇦🇫🇨🇳🇲🇲🇷🇼🇬🇧🇺🇸 | Capital Germany 40under40 | ☕ http://buymeacoffee.com/jberlin | Don’t just get mad, get busy

If you refused to believe Ukrainians the past 2 years when they told you what Russia wants, believe Putin now.
He openly says what we’ve known all along: Russia came to #Ukraine to conquer & has zero intention to negotiate or cede any occupied territory.

0:25 ( https://twitter.com/berlin_bridge/status/1747591868999774715 )
From Anton Gerashchenko

The Worst US I've Ever Seen | Col. Larry Wilkerson
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RsVpqFs0zO4
Among other points, highlights the evolution of Putin's goals and the fundamental unseriousness of the MIC's response to our situation. We lack the industrial capacity to hold a shadow to Russia's arms production capabilities, and we will continue to do so because the investment required to reactivate whatever is still standing of what capacity we once had (Rock Creek, etc.) would likely cut into MIC profits -- the maintenance and increase of which, after all, appears to be the entire point of our foreign policy.

Anne Applebaum @anneapplebaum | 4:23 AM · Jan 18, 2024:

Ukrainians say their drones hit an oil depot near St Petersburg

Ukrainian drones hit oil depot in St Petersburg
VALENTYNA ROMANENKO — Thursday, 18 January 2024, 09:59

...According to Russian media, the Petersburg Oil Terminal is the largest Russian oil transshipment terminal in the Baltic region.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/01/18/7437771/

How Kyiv shooting down a Russian spy plane could impact war
Roman Goncharenko | 18 Jan 2023

Ukraine claims it shot down a Russian A-50 reconnaissance aircraft. Analysts tell DW the weapons it could have used and lay out potential military consequences for Kyiv and Moscow if the claim is accurate.

... Experts expect the Ukrainian attack over the Sea of Azov will have several consequences. {Austrian military historian Colonel Markus Reisner} said that Russia will not be able to act as if nothing happened until the situation has been clarified.

{Valeriy Romanenko from the National Aviation University}, for his part, said he expects the Russian military to withdraw its reconnaissance aircraft to about 100 kilometers from the front. He added that such a step would give Kyiv "tactical advantages in certain areas," from which the Ukrainian military could conduct attacks on Crimea and targets located well within the other Russian-occupied territories of Ukraine.

He said this could also improve conditions for the deployment of Ukrainian fighter aircraft, both to support ground operations and to deploy Western cruise missiles such as the Storm Shadow.

Reisner said downing an A-50 would represent an "impressive success" for Ukraine on the battlefield and in the media. He compared the recent developments to the Ukrainian attack on a Russian submarine in Crimea last September and explained that Ukraine had again demonstrated that it could use the "limited resources that it has at its disposal to incredible effect." He said that this was important with regard to continued support from the West.

https://www.dw.com/en/how-kyiv-shooting-down-a-russian-spy-plane-could-impact-wa...

Dmitri Alperovitch @DAlperovitch | 9:43 PM · Jan 17, 2024:
Geopolitics, NatSec, Great Power Competition, Cybersecurity. Chairman @SilveradoPolicy; Host @GeopolDecanted; Founder @alperovitch; Co-Founder @CrowdStrike

Remarkable Ukrainian success over the last few months: grain sea exports are closing in on pre-war levels.

Four companies are providing insurance including at least one British one. Rates have dropped from 7% to 1.25% of cargo value

https://www.epravda.com.ua/rus/news/2024/01/17/708855/

Col. Wilkerson appears again today with Judge Nap. He begins by pointing to Clausewitz and the changing nature of wars and evolution of war aims. Goals held at the outset (viz. something along the lines of the Russian-Georgian War model, Wilkerson suggests) often evolve as a war proceeds. (I'd say >4 margd: gets it wrong. It may look the same, but it's not. The longer we keep this going and continue to make strategic errors, the less the Russians have to lose by living up to our propaganda in some degree. )

Col. Lawrence Wilkerson: Blinken in Davos: A Disaster.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LfAQGceiTJE

Col. Wilkerson appears again today with Judge Nap. He begins by pointing to Clausewitz and the changing nature of wars and evolution of war aims. Goals held at the outset (viz. something along the lines of the Russian-Georgian War model, Wilkerson suggests) often evolve as a war proceeds. (I'd say >4 margd: gets it wrong. The longer we keep this going and continue to make strategic errors, the less the Russians have to lose by living up to our propaganda in some degree. It may look the same, but it's not. The underlying dynamics are entirely different.)

Col. Lawrence Wilkerson: Blinken in Davos: A Disaster.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LfAQGceiTJE

'Say you're sorry': Russia's trend for humiliating videos (BBC)

a rapidly spreading culture of apology videos, which have become increasingly prevalent since the full-scale invasion almost two years ago. But many of the videos are released by police and feature people who have come under far more pressure than the high and mighty of Russia's pop scene. Some of the forced apologies were for alleged offences against the Kremlin's official ideology rather than anything else. The intention of these videos is two-fold, according to Russian rights lawyer Dmitry Zakhvatov. To humiliate critics of the war with Ukraine and "to intimidate those who do not support the war but have so far not summoned up the courage to say so in public," he told the Kavkaz Realii website... since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, numerous clips have appeared featuring critics of what it calls its "special military operation". Some were published via official police accounts on social media. Many others were posted by pro-war activists or state media, but they also appear to have had some police involvement. They were filmed in barren rooms typical of police stations and use language characteristic of police reports... There have been accusations that such videos are often recorded under duress. For example, a blogger known as Nekoglay said police in Moscow forced him to appear on camera after stripping him, beating him up and attempting to rape him with a plastic bottle... Apology videos are also being used to shame war critics in Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine. Two-thirds of the apology videos monitored by Russian human rights website OVD-Info over a period of almost 16 months after the start of the invasion actually came from the occupied region of Crimea. Russian social anthropologist Aleksandra Arkhipova describes the videos as "rituals of guilt and shame" that amount to extrajudicial punishment... A puppet theatre actress from occupied Donetsk who was shown saying sorry for sharing Ukrainian songs on TikTok said later she had been pressured into doing it by the police. "Either you record this video or... you're going to jail and your child is going to an orphanage," she quoted a police officer as saying...

>10 davidgn: Unfortunately, I think I must add: the sentiment I expressed may already be moot. It may be too late to stop making strategic errors or to stop this.

Logic would indicate that, having thus blundered, if the war can truly not be stopped, a sane occupant of the White House should order the reactivation of every square foot of intact arms manufacturing space and bring the economy onto a war footing. But we are ruled by fools. It is the worst of all worlds. We are stoking World War 3 while leaving ourselves unprepared to fight it except by nuclear means.

I choose to believe the war still can be stopped.

---

Martin Sixsmith has a very good interview with The Times on his new book,
Putin and the Return of History
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oHuGFtlQH6c
Unlike many, you can't accuse him of a failure to grasp the situation.
“If that’s not a wake up call I don’t know what is.”

NATO should “start negotiations” with Russia before it’s too late, as analysts believe there could be a Russian attack on a NATO state “in the next seven years”, former BBC correspondent Martin Sixsmith tells #TimesRadio.

Fire erupts at Russia's Novatek Baltic Sea terminal after suspected Ukrainian drone attack
Reuters | January 21, 2024

A fire broke out at a Baltic Sea terminal belonging to Novatek (NVTK.MM)
, opens new tab, Russia's largest liquefied natural gas producer, after a suspected Ukrainian drone attack, forcing the company to suspend some operations there.

The Ust-Luga complex, located on the Gulf of Finland about 170 km (110 miles) west of St. Petersburg, processes stable gas condensate into light and heavy naphtha, jet fuel, fuel oil and gasoil, according to Novatek's website. The port is used to ship processed products to international markets.

The Interfax-Ukraine news agency, citing unnamed sources, said the fire was the result of a special operation carried out by Ukraine's security services...

https://www.reuters.com/world/fire-erupts-russias-novatek-baltic-sea-terminal-af...

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 5:57 PM · Jan 20, 2024:

The Russian cities of Tula, Smolensk, and Oryol were attacked by drones, Russian media report.

Reportedly, the target of the attack in Tula was the Shcheglovsky Val military plant.

This plant manufactures military equipment for the front (Pantsyr MANPADS) and modernizes armored vehicles.

Photos
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1748842173531935180/photo/1
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1748842173531935180/photo/2
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1748842173531935180/photo/3
----------------------------------------------------------

Factory that Makes Pantsir SAM Systems Hit by Multiple Drones in Tula, Russia (2:58)
Suchomimus | Jan 20, 2024

The Shcheglovsky Val in Tula, 300+ km from the border with Ukraine was hit by at least four drones, with some reports saying seven. The drones hit at different intervals with staggered arrivals. This factory makes Pantsir-S1 SAM systems and turrets for various armoured fighting vehicles.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qq9YdPan_hc
----------------------------------------------------------
If only such engineering expertise and national resources were being directed at our common enemy, climate change...

How Powerful Is the Russian Pantsir Missile System to Fend Off Ukrainian Counterattacks? (8:03)
U.S. Defense News | Jun 22, 2023

The war between Ukraine and Russia does not seem to be ending shortly. Daily updates regarding either new positions or new weapons in these two countries exist.

Russia will soon reinforce its special military operation zone in Ukraine with the latest Pantsir systems. According to an informed source, air defenses in the Area of Operation (AOR) of the Russian forces in Ukraine will soon be bolstered with Pantsir anti-aircraft missile and artillery system "in the latest modification", Sputnik reported.
Transcript

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nJ2bH0oL24M

>14 margd: contd.

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 7:09 PM · Jan 20, 2024:

Russian Telegram channels publish a video of a powerful explosion during a drone attack on Russian Tula. The explosion happened in the area where a military plant Shcheglovskiy val is located.

0:10 ( https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1748860387582173332 )

>13 margd: contd.

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 11:48 AM · Jan 21, 2024:

A fire after the drone attack on an Ust-Luga oil port in Leningrad region burns for 11 hours already.

The fuel produced here is delivered to the Russian army.

0:20 ( https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1749111772840128910 )
_______________________________________

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 10:18 AM · Jan 21, 2024:

This past week has been full of events in Russia:

▪️A-50 and Il-22 aircraft destroyed and damaged, respectively;
▪️Massive protests and clashes with the police in Bashkortostan;
▪️Massive collapses in communal infrastructure in numerous Russian cities;
▪️Drone attack on Tambov gunpowder plant;
▪️First drones reached Leningrad region - one of them exploded at the territory of Petersburg oil terminal, the other at the Novatek plant;
▪️Massive fire on an oil reservoir in Bryansk region - reportedly, over 3,100 tonnes of oil was in the burned down reservoirs. It took two days to put out the fire;
▪️Lukoil oil refinery in Nizhniy Novgorod had to stop a large part of its equipment for making petrol - the equipment broke down, and there is no replacement due to sanctions.

>16 margd: I hope this is what the opening salvos to secure negotiations look like. At this point, it's arguably going to take this sort of a bloody nose to bring the Russians to the table (or so I tell myself). I guarantee things are going to get worse before they get better, though. In the immediate term, Putin will feel obliged to do some very nasty things in response.

Russian elections in March.
US in November...

Štefan Auer @stefanauer_hku | 10:14 PM · Jan 21, 2024
Professor of European Studies, twice named Jean Monnet Chair (La Trobe & HKU) @HKuniversity, occasional bylines in FT @Politico @unherd
.
‘If countries believe they cannot annex their neighbours without losing access to their global reserves, that is a good thing.’ {former president of the World Bank} Robert Zoelick’s compelling argument in the FT {Financial Times?} in favour of transferring Russian reserves to Ukraine.

Text (https://twitter.com/stefanauer_hku/status/1749269213850808545/photo/1)

Frederik Pleitgen @fpleitgenCNN | 1:58 AM · Jan 23, 2024:
CNN Senior International Correspondent and Anchor

Ukrainian forces so starved for artillery ammo they sometimes fire smoke rounds at advancing Russians. Near Bakhmut.

⁩See why US-supplied howitzers are not having an impact on Ukrainian front lines
Ammunition is running low for Ukrainian forces on the front lines. (2:20)
CNN's Frederik Pleitgen takes a closer look at the desperate situation on the ground.
http://cnn.com/video/data/2.0/video/world/2024/01/23/ukraine-ammunition-shortage...

>20 margd: Well, y'know where those shells are going instead, and for what.
https://youtu.be/OQvoPGydGRc?si=wcwsYiqHrRqXAR43&t=377

>20 margd:

If there's one thing that World War II should have taught us it is that in any long term war of attrition the side with the greatest industrial capacity and other resources (including human resources) will ultimately "win", if there is such a thing as "winning" in this type of conflict. Ukraine can hold its own as long as wealthy western industrialised nations are willing to provide it with war materiel and other support, at least until it runs out of young men and women to sacrifice in the meat grinder of war, but once that support begins to wane, as it apparently already is, Ukraine will be forced either to negotiate a peace they can live with, or gradually succumb to total destruction and surrender, probably with an ongoing guerilla resistance movement which will continue to make life pretty miserable for both Russians and Ukrainians (and indirectly the rest of the world, to say nothing of the environment) for many more years to come.

The other thing WW2 taught us is that appeasement is not the solution.

>23 margd:

Appeasement is a vague, emotive and value-laden word which carries a lot of different meanings. I wonder what you actually mean by it in the concrete reality of the current Russia-Ukraine war?

Incidentally there are many historians and analysts who argue that what has often been labelled "appeasement" in the 1930s was actually an essential element in buying time for Britain and France to begin the process of industrialised re-armament, and that when Czechoslovakia was invaded in 1938 they knew they were not yet ready for war with Germany, whereas by the time Poland was invaded in 1939 they felt that they were ready. History proved that they were only just ready enough to hang on until the war was "won" largely by the industries and human resources of the USSR and USA.

The Rise of the American Oligarchy
What targeting Russia’s wayward billionaires revealed about our own.
Tim Murphy | January+February 2024 Issue

...underpinning the sordid Russian saga was an inescapably American one. As investigators pored over bank statements and real estate records, they added new layers to a map journalists and watchdogs have been piecing together for years—of a sometimes underground but often wholly legal international network in which the wealth of autocratic regimes was funneled through the firms, markets, and institutions of places that fashion themselves as the antithesis of Putin’s Russia. Through a labyrinth of corporations, trusts, and false fronts, oligarch money made its way into the hands of nannies in California, fracking firms in Texas, wealth managers in New York, startups in Silicon Valley, and factory workers in the Midwest.

...American oligarchy offers a twist on the pilfering of the commons that produced Russia’s. It is built on a different kind of resource, not nickel or potash, but you—your data, your attention, your money, your public square. These men (mostly) exult in their almost godlike status over the politicians they fund, the platforms they own, and the industries they’ve effectively monopolized. They are prone to grandiose proclamations about outer space and immortality. But the day-to-day effect of their power is felt less in the glitter than in the gravity it exerts on everything else—the accumulated burden and strain that hardening political and economic inequality puts on public services, on policy, and on the places we live and work. This world ropes you in with its yachts and private jets, but the story of American oligarchy is not just about the spoils. It’s about what everyone else is losing in the process.

...The spoils of Russia and other countries flowed to the United States not just because of its stability, but because the American political and financial system put up a big flashing sign inviting the world’s wealth hoarders to come and stay a while. Here, they could achieve near-total anonymity if they purchased real estate in cash or routed the transaction through a shell company or a trust—which were increasingly based in decidedly onshore US jurisdictions such as Wyoming and South Dakota. In New York and Miami, gleaming new high-rises sat empty; a penthouse, for the asset-hoarding class, was not a home but a different kind of bank.

This great transnational wealth transfer was eased along by the booming, multitrillion-dollar American private-investment industry. If a foreign investor wanted to put money in a US-based financial institution or publicly traded company, notes Gary Kalman, the executive director of Transparency International US, those shops are required to perform due diligence. But hedge funds, venture capital, and private equity are bound by no such rules and have fought efforts to impose them.

...The spoils of Russia and other countries flowed to the United States not just because of its stability, but because the American political and financial system put up a big flashing sign inviting the world’s wealth hoarders to come and stay a while. Here, they could achieve near-total anonymity if they purchased real estate in cash or routed the transaction through a shell company or a trust—which were increasingly based in decidedly onshore US jurisdictions such as Wyoming and South Dakota. In New York and Miami, gleaming new high-rises sat empty; a penthouse, for the asset-hoarding class, was not a home but a different kind of bank.

This great transnational wealth transfer was eased along by the booming, multitrillion-dollar American private-investment industry. If a foreign investor wanted to put money in a US-based financial institution or publicly traded company, notes Gary Kalman, the executive director of Transparency International US, those shops are required to perform due diligence. But hedge funds, venture capital, and private equity are bound by no such rules and have fought efforts to impose them...

https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2024/01/american-oligarchy-introduction-ess...

>24 John5918: appeasement

"...I renounce war, and am therefore determined not to support any kind of war..."

>26 margd:

Is that your understanding of appeasement? Sounds more like a worthy inspirational and aspirational ideal to me. In reality most conflicts end through negotiation, and there are other ways of transforming conflicts, even violent conflicts, than lengthy and damaging wars of attrition in which ultimately nobody wins.

Someone determined not to support any kind of war will do anything to avoid it, including appeasing the most bestial. Period.

>28 margd:

That's a remarkable leap of false logic, once again using the emotive term appeasement. Someone opposed to any form of war will firstly work very hard to pre-empt the political and social conditions which lead to war, but if war does break out they will do all they can to hasten the end of the conflict. I repeat that virtually all conflicts are ended by negotiation rather than "victory", so it makes sense to encourage a move to that inevitable phase of the conflict as swiftly as possible.

"All they can to hasten the end of the conflict" can involve meeting force with force.
Someone who pledges "...I renounce war, and am therefore determined not to support any kind of war..." cannot pursue force as a means of hastening end of conflict. Appeasement (and platitudes) are all that's left apparently.

We're obviously not going to agree. You appear to be oversimplifying the immensely complex field of conflict transformation, overlooking all the possibilities of active nonviolent resistance, ignoring the reality that virtually all conflicts end with negotiation, and I think setting up narrow and false conclusions about "all that's left". I also disagree about pursuing violence (which I take it is what you mean by "force") to hasten the end of conflict. Usually all it does is drive the violent conflict underground without resolving the root causes of the conflict, leading to renewed and often more virulent conflict a few years down the line.

'Send back our husbands' - Russian women in rare protest (BBC)

In a function room on the edge of Moscow, something unusual is happening. A group of women are publicly criticising the Russian authorities. Their husbands are among the 300,000 reservists mobilised by Russian President Vladimir Putin for the war in Ukraine in autumn 2022. And they want them home. "When will our husbands be considered to have discharged their military duty?" asks Maria. "When they're brought back with no arms and legs? When they can't do anything at all because they're just vegetables? Or do we have to wait for them to be sent back in zinc coffins?" The women met via social media and have formed a group called The Way Home. They have differing views on the war. Some claim to support it. Others are sceptical about the Kremlin's "special military operation". What seems to unite them is the belief that the mobilised men have done their fair share of the fighting and should be back home with their families. It is an opinion the authorities do not share. In Russia public criticism of anything related to the war comes with a risk. Most of the speakers choose their words very carefully. They know there's a string of laws in place now in Russia for punishing dissent. Their frustration, though, is palpable...

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 5:19 AM · Jan 24, 2024:

Russian Il-76 airlifter crashed in Belgorod region of Russia, Russian media report.
There has been no official information.
Ukrainian Defense Ministry cannot confirm at the moment whether the aircraft has been shot down by Ukrainian Defense Forces - information is being clarified.
Footage from the site of the crash shows that the plane is completely destroyed.

0:11, 0:19, photo ( https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1750100995026112904 )
-----------------------------------------------------

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 10:11 AM · Jan 24, 2024:
Ukrainian patriot. Advisor to Internal Affairs Minister (2021-2023). Founder of Institute of the Future.

The official version of the Russian Federation regarding the crash of Il-76 on January 24, 2023, is reduced to the following position:

The airplane carried Ukrainian prisoners of war who were to be delivered for exchange (192 for 192).
▪️ This version is illogical, and here is why:

a) the aircraft crashed (was shot down) on takeoff from the airfield in Belgorod. Where exactly could the prisoners, who were already 40 kilometers away from the Ukrainian border, have been delivered to? The Kolotilovka-Pokrovka border point is the only functioning "corridor" for exchanges. It is 95 km away from Belgorod and it is impossible to deliver anyone there by plane.

b) That very aircraft has never been used for transporting POWs before. Moreover, it flew to the Middle East and its current flight was a return from there. "The Il-76 shot down today near Belgorod was returning to Chkalovsky (military air base - ed.) after its routine patrol of the Middle East. Such a route the aircraft has been doing regularly for several years now," sources reported.

c) the Russian side claims to have warned the Ukrainian side about the route of the prisoners' delivery. However, a strike on our own soldiers is absolutely not favorable to Ukraine and would create massive problems for us (both at home and in the international arena). Whereas for the Russian Federation, everything is exactly the opposite, as the first reaction of officials confirms (for example, the speaker of the State Duma V. Volodin changed the discussion towards the necessity of finding out what weapon was used to shoot down the aircraft — with an obvious promotion of demands to the West to stop providing high-tech military aid to Ukraine).

d) the aircraft was flying north, in the opposite direction from the border with Ukraine. No official Ukrainian spokesman gave any information about the shooting down of the aircraft, no confirmation or claim of responsibility.

c) the attack on the aircraft could happen only in case of a Russian provocation and special operation of Russian special services that misinformed the Ukrainian side about the particular flight.

There is no evidence that there were 63 Ukrainian prisoners of war on board; the lists that are thrown in the media space by the Russian side are not any kind of evidence, and it is impossible to verify them. In fact, about 17 names on the list coincide with the names of prisoners of war already exchanged earlier.

d) observers pointed out that for such a large number of prisoners, the number of declared accompanying officers (3) is too small, which is a violation of all statutes and protocols.

e) such a large number of victims is not confirmed by the first photos and videos from the crash site — neither bodies nor their fragments were seen in the frame. Only later it was stated that the bodies were found 1.5-2 kilometers away from the crash site — which is also strange, given the circumstances of the fall as captured on video.

f) there are obvious traces of detonation of some cargo on board (there was data that Il-76 carried missiles for the S-300 complex). I.e., it is extremely strange that there could be both prisoners of war and a cargo of missiles on the same board.

▪️Conclusions

1. The circumstances of the crash have not been established fully; the fact of Ukrainian prisoners of war being on board has not been established either. If the latter is confirmed, then they could have been on board this particular aircraft only as a result of a provocative special operation by Russian special services.

2. The situation is favorable to Russia and 100% disadvantageous to Ukraine. The allegations about the purposeful killing of its own military captives is a deliberate lie that fits only within the framework of Russian propaganda clichés.

3. In the operational information "boost," Russian agents in the West and Russian bot farms have been noticed, and became active from the very first minutes.

4. The circumstances of the story with Il-76 are similar to the story of the killing of Ukrainian POWs at the Russian Olenivka prison camp. No evidence that the strike on the camp was conducted by the Ukrainian side has ever appeared, and international experts were not allowed to visit the scene.

5. If the Russian Federation is confident in its version of the events, it should initiate the creation of an international commission to investigate the case and open access to all materials related to it.
-------------------------------------------------------

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 6:42 AM · Jan 25, 2024:

Il-76 crash in Belgorod region: violation of the laws and rules of war. Assessment of the situation.

Russia officially stated that "Ukrainian prisoners of war who were allegedly on board, allegedly died".

▪️ As of today, we know two facts:
1. The plane was shot down;
2. A prisoner exchange was planned but did not take place.

▪️ The plane went down on Russian territory - outside of Ukraine's control.

▪️ International experts must determine whether the facts are true. Ukraine insists on an international investigation - President Zelenskyy.

▪️ The Security Service of Ukraine has opened a criminal investigation of the crash of the Il-76 (SSU confirmed this in a comment to Radio Liberty).

There are currently three hypothetical versions of what the plane could have been carrying:

1️⃣ there were no Ukrainian prisoners of war on board;
2️⃣ there were prisoners of war on board;
3️⃣ in addition to prisoners of war, there was military cargo on board.

All three options mean a blatant violation of the Geneva Conventions.

The first one assumes that the aggressor organized a provocation and was preparing for it. This is a gross violation of the Third Geneva Convention by the Russian Federation and a war crime committed by Russians: repressions, i.e. killing prisoners of war in another place and in another way and taking prisoners of war as hostages.

The second option is also a violation of the Third Geneva Convention by the Russian Federation - a violation of the laws and customs of war. The Convention requires that the ICRC and the Protecting Power, i.e. an official intermediary, be involved in the exchange of prisoners of war and monitoring of their condition.

The Russian Federation sabotages the appointment of the Protecting Power and does not allow the ICRC to participate in the negotiation and exchange processes.

According to Article 23 of the Geneva Convention, "no prisoner of war may at any time be sent to or detained in areas where he may be exposed to the fire of the combat zone, nor may his presence be used to render certain points or areas immune from military operations".

The third option includes such war crimes of the Russian Federation as taking hostages in the form of a "human shield" on an airplane to "cover" the transportation of cargo (could be missiles for the shelling of Kharkiv. Earlier, there were several reports of S-300 missiles being delivered by Il-76 aircraft in Belgorod region).

Any hypothetical scenario, even the saddest one, described above, does not imply international responsibility of Ukraine and the Ukrainian military.

By commenting on the situation with the plane, Russian propaganda is trying to gain international support. If it succeeds, it could mean that the tactic of suddenly killing Ukrainian prisoners of war could be used again.

We remember how Russia and its propaganda acted when commenting on the massacre of Ukrainian prisoners of war in Olenivka and the explosion of the Kakhovka HPP. This is the same handwriting of a terrorist country.

"Russia consents to an international investigation into the crash of the Il-76 with Ukrainian prisoners of war near Belgorod on condition that it is seen as an investigation into the "criminal actions of the Kyiv regime" - presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said this morning.

In fact, this means rejecting an international expertise. And that speaks volumes.

0:34 ( https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1750484393544548769 )

John Bresnahan @bresreports | 6:05 PM · Jan 24, 2024:
Co-Founder of Punchbowl News.

NEWS - @LeaderMcConnell raises doubts about whether Senate Republicans should move ahead with border security-Ukraine aid deal.
He told GOP senators “The politics of this have changed,” and noted Trump wants to run on immigration.
“We are in a quandary,” McConnell said

2/ McConnell read out a quote from Trump criticizing the proposed border security-immigration policy changes.
Called Trump “the nominee” and said “We don’t want yo do anything to undermine him.”
This is McConnell reading the mood of his conference and the GOP nationally

3/ This may be the end of getting any significant Ukrainian funding thru Congress.
McConnell is as vocal a Ukraine backer as there is on Hill, but opposition is growing inside GOP. Only gonna be more so as Trump tightens grip on nomination
-----------------------------------------------

Doug Klain @DougKlain | 10:02 PM · Jan 24, 2024
Policy Analyst at @RazomForUkraine | Nonresident Fellow at @AtlanticCouncil
’s @ACEurasia | Writing on 🇺🇦+🇷🇺 published in @ ForeignPolicy & @newrepublic

Sources confirm that Trump is directly trying to tank Ukraine/border negotiations to deny Biden a political win and keep immigration as a campaign issue this year.
There's a few ways this might go. Few are good for Ukraine, and above all, precious time has been wasted. 🧵

Recent polling (e.g. @timothymfrye ) shows that Trump wields outsize influence on Republicans on Ukraine.
For Republican voters, a direct appeal from Trump against Ukraine aid torpedoes their support. Congressional Republicans know this.
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4662428

Despite McConnell's comments, not all Republicans are on board.

"Somebody who is trying to defeat legislation, all in the name of running for office? That is irresponsible," @BillCassidy told @USATODAY
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2024/01/24/conservative-gop-senator...

It's possible McConnell is trying to open the path to delinking Ukraine and immigration reform so that a Ukraine (maybe w/ Israel) package can be put forward on its own merits.
As a Senate Republican staffer said privately last week, the votes for Ukraine are absolutely there.
.
But Trump's direct intervention could also tank a Ukraine deal. He hasn't come out publicly against yet—thankfully—but doing so would make it very difficult for Republicans to defy him in an election year. He'd single them out, & doing the right thing just isn't worth it to many.

No matter what, it's worth remembering just how much time has been wasted here. Ukraine is running out of ammo, more missiles are getting through air defense, more people are dying.
This delay is happening because some are choosing political power over national interest.

The worst of cynical politics are on display from Republicans and Trump here. McCarthy thought linking Ukraine/border could save his speakership, the White House was willing to make a deal, and now Ukraine is being treated like nothing more than a bargaining chip.

From colleagues doing regular meetings with congressional offices, there is zero energy or motivation to make something happen on Ukraine. They support Ukraine, but they don't feel the urgency or like they have a chance of making something happen themselves.

Many Republicans want to aid Ukraine, but they won't break with Trump over it.
For European (and especially Ukrainian) observers, remember that many of these officials could have been killed by Trump's people on January 6, yet they still stand by him. Trump's the X factor here.

Above all, this shows that US politics in 2024 are too unmoored from rational statecraft for Europe and Ukraine to rely on America. That is a devastating reality.
I'm hoping to publish a more detailed article soon on what Europe can do to hedge against a second Trump admin.

The coming days will be critical for Ukraine.
Does Trump come out against a deal? Does the Senate bring something to a vote anyway? Can Ukraine and immigration be delinked?
America's allies are watching. Putin is watching. Ukrainians are fighting and dying.
What are we doing?

>33 margd:
How will Russian pilots and crew take this??

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 7:30 AM · Jan 25, 2024:

Russian military and political VIPs were supposed to be on the board of the Il-76, but at the last moment the FSB prohibited them to board - Andrii Yusov, representative of Ukraine's Main Intelligence Directorate.

He added that only five bodies had been delivered to the local morgue in Belgorod that day.

1:17 ( https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1750496286766227786 )

A GOP Border Reckoning
We’ll soon know if the party really wants to solve the problem.
The Editorial Board | Jan. 25, 2024

"Both a tighter border and a vote for a stable Europe are in the American interest. Better to act now than to fail and live with the consequences."

https://www.wsj.com/articles/republicans-border-deal-mitch-mcconnell-mike-johnso...

I think it's in this thread (or one of its predecessors) that there has been some discussion of "just war" theory. The three parts of this are generally held to be jus ad bellum, jus in bello, and jus post bellum. These Latin terms translate roughly as 'justice towards war', 'justice in war', and 'justice after war'.

A recent book examining the third of these, 'Justice after War: Jus Post Bellum in the 21st Century' by David Chiwon Kwon, published by Catholic University of America Press in May 2023, might be of interest, LT being a book site. I haven't read it yet, but here is the publisher's blurb:

Justice After War is aimed especially to both undergraduate and graduate students, as well as the general audience who want to understand the significance of a recent development within the just war tradition, namely, the increasing attention given to the category of jus post bellum (postwar justice and peace). While examining the interrelated challenges of moral and social norms in both political and legal domains, as well as church practices, this work proposes an innovative methodology for linking theology, ethics, and social science so that the ideal and the real can inform each other in the ethics of war and peacebuilding. The main task of this project, then, is to identify what the author views as three key themes of jus post bellum, and three practices that are essential to implementing jus post bellum immediately after a war: just policing, just punishment, and just political participation.

David Kwon endeavors to challenge the view of those who suggest that reconciliation, mainly political reconciliation, is the foremost ambition of jus post bellum. Instead, he attempts to justify the proposition that achieving just policing, just punishment, and just political participation are essential to building a just peace, a peace in which the fundamental characteristic must be human security. It thus demonstrates that human security is an oft-neglected theme in the recent discourse of moral theologians and that a more balanced understanding of jus post bellum will direct attention to the elements composing human security in a postwar context.

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 6:49 AM · Jan 27, 2024:

"As Moscow ramps up weapons production, Nato is struggling to keep up," — The Telegraph says, adding that in 3 years' time, Russia could gain decisive superiority on the battlefield.

The main points from the article:
▪️Russia is converting former shopping malls, bakeries, and other civilian infrastructure into weapons factories.

▪️Russia has increased military expenditures from 2.7% of GDP in 2022 to 6%—or approximately one-third of all state expenditures—in 2024. By this measure, Russia has surpassed all major NATO countries.

▪️In 2023, Russia produced 1,530 tanks and 2,518 armoured fighting vehicles. This means a 560% increase in tank production since February 2022. IFV (infantry fighting vehicles) production is up 360% and APC (armoured personnel carriers) production is up 350%.

▪️Russian Federation is approaching production of 2 million artillery shells per year — "twice as much as Western intelligence services originally estimated." For comparison, all European production during the first year of the war in Ukraine amounted to 300,000 shells.

▪️This should include supplies of shells, missiles and drones from Iran and North Korea.

▪️So far, the level of production is unlikely to allow Russia to launch a major offensive in 2024. However, the Kremlin, according to the newspaper's source, plans to reach this goal in 3 years.

"They are talking about mobilising their defence industry over the next three years, which implies they are looking to fight the war for at least three to four years."

Link to the article: https://telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/01/26/russia-arming-itself-faster-than-n...

Image, Putin w weapon ( https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1751210911698706881/photo/1 )

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 6:26 AM · Jan 18, 2024:

Why will the Russian empire - the Russian Federation - collapse?

▪️ Moral decay of the authorities and the people: lies, hypocrisy, deceit, denunciations, falsifications, aggressiveness, intolerance, xenophobia, chauvinism, acceleration of moral decay.

▪️ Opposition to the whole world, endless conflicts, cold war, growth of internal centrifugal tendencies.

▪️ Rapid degradation of elites, administrative and official apparatus degradation.

▪️ Emigration of part of the progressive, thinking and educated population.

▪️ Increased aggressive encroachments, rapid expansion of borders: many empires "choke" on new lands - die from inability to digest all that they have swallowed.

▪️ Loss of efficiency and possibility of further development.

▪️ Huge territories, provinces' distance, consequent difficulties of governance, national and religious contradictions.

▪️ Gradual weakening of the imperial center, national conflicts and feuds. Struggle of the peripheries for power.

▪️ Lack of modernization of the country. Stagnation. Material and moral deterioration. As a consequence, the "hurrah-patriotism" will be replaced by the destruction of the phenomenon of faith in the world spiritual and cultural primacy of Russia as an imperial nation.

🔹Because all empires collapse, it is a natural part of their evolution.

What would you add to my thoughts? {https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1747943433921065208}

Map, Russia {https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1747943433921065208/photo/1}
------------------------------------

Russia’s Hidden Colonialism: Its Origins, Forms, and the Ways to Escape It
Sergej Sumlenny | 15.01.2024
https://european-resilience.org/analytics/russias-hidden-colonialism-its-origins...

What Will Russia’s Dissolution Look Like and Should One Expect That?
Sergej Sumlenny | 09.03.2023
https://european-resilience.org/analytics/what-will-russias-dissolution-look-and...

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 5:36 AM · Jan 27, 2024:

In recent months in Russia, there have been incidents of Internet shutdowns and blocking of messengers such as WhatsApp and Telegram in regions where even minimal protest activity is detected.

On the one hand, this indicates that Russian regional authorities consider the possibility of mass protests to be quite real. On the other hand, this is "insurance" against accusations of inaction on the part of Moscow authorities. At the same time, an important point is overlooked: restricting access to the Internet does not narrow, but on the contrary, expands the pool of those dissatisfied.

On January 24, messengers stopped working in two regions of the Far Eastern District of Russia (Khabarovsk region and Yakutia). A week earlier, similar shutdowns occurred in Bashkiria. In the case of Bashkiria (where there were protests related to the trial of Fayil Alsynov) and Yakutia (where there was a conflict on interethnic grounds), the reason for the shutdowns can be explained by current events and attempts to "extinguish" possible coordination of protesters. Whereas in Khabarovsk region, there was no obvious reason and the shutdowns were of a "preventive and prophylactic" nature.

This practice is becoming a system: now the authorities will probably disable messengers in any unclear situation - for example, dispersal of peaceful demonstrations.

Such actions can indeed hinder mass gatherings. However, it is evident that they will worry not just activists but also the apolitical general public, aggravating them and effectively pushing them towards protests.

This is especially noticeable by the reaction of the population of Yakutia - they complain en masse on social networks about the problems (with studying, work, business) that have arisen after the blocking. One of the few "platforms" on which they try to "reach out" to the local authorities is the page of the Head of the Republic Aysen Nikolaev on the Vkontakte Russian social network.

Since Nikolaev writes nothing at all about either protests or blockades, the disgruntled leave their comments under all posts available for comment (for example, the one on the Forum and Exhibition "Russia"). "Turn on WhatsApp back! All of our life goes through the Internet, work, study, shopping, etc. etc. What kind of discrimination is this? Or turn on wi-fi for everyone," indignant residents of Yakutian cities wrote.

The attempt of pro-government trolls to blame "the West" for disconnections ("They say it's the Americans who have permanently turned off the Internet") does not inspire confidence and does not receive support.

Yakutian authorities themselves are trying to explain what is happening by some kind of "preventive maintenance" of a technical nature, which almost no one believes in either. At the same time, official media emphasize that WhatsApp belongs to Meta company, which is recognized as an extremist organization in Russia; its activities are banned. The reasons for blocking Telegram owned by Russian Durov are not specified.

◾️ It seems that the Russian authorities are actively preparing for mass protests and have already technically tested ways to make coordination between protesters through messengers more difficult.

◾️ The initiators of the blockings are acting within the framework of the perception that mass protests are always "political technology" and that by removing the possibility of rapid distribution of certain information they can be suppressed.

◾️ "Side" effects of blocking (people's dependence on stable work of the Internet) are not taken into account or are considered admissible, and expressed mass discontent is ignored. It is believed that the claims will be limited to virtual outrages.

◾️ The negative impact of the shutdowns will be directed at local authorities, who are unable to explain to the apolitical common man why they should suffer inconvenience and losses from such actions, nor to give guarantees that the shutdowns will not become permanent.

◾️ For several years now there has been talk in Russia of developing national social networks following the example of China and blocking Western ones. A huge number of Russians are already using VPN services.

◾️ The creation of a "sovereign Internet" (with a ban on all uncontrolled services - from WhatsApp to YouTube) is, to a certain extent, utopian. At least, it will not directly affect possible protest activity, because the reasons for it lie in the unresolved problems of Russians, not in the availability of access to the Internet.

◾️ People who experience everyday inconveniences due to non-working messengers, now spend time and energy on this problem and therefore do not pay attention to the general situation in Russia and the current major problems in their regions.

Is Congress Really Going to Abandon Ukraine Now?
Anne Applebaum |

The U.S. rallied the world to help the Ukrainians. Are Americans really going to leave them to their fate?

...The looming end of American aid to Ukraine is not a policy decision. For two years, the Biden administration successfully led an international coalition to provide not soldiers but rather military aid to Ukraine. Officials convened regular meetings, consulted with allies, pulled in military support from around the world. Majorities in the U.S. continue to support Ukraine. Majorities in both houses of Congress do too. The Senate is said to have its legislation almost ready to go. But now, for reasons that outsiders find impossible to understand, a minority of Republican members of Congress, in a fit of political pique, are preparing to cut it all off. They might succeed.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/01/us-congress-support-ukraine-wa...

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/01/us-congress-support-ukraine-wa...

Darth Putin @DarthPutinKGB | 1:26 PM · Jan 27, 2024:
Czar for life of all Russians. Master Strategist. Thought leader. Influencer. Content creator. Author. Wanted in 123 countries. Parody, apparently.

Russia has no plans to invade:

Moldova...

Ok. But not Georgia
Ok, but not Ukraine.
Ok, just Crimea
Ok, just Crimea & part of Donetsk
Ok, just Crimea & all of Donetsk
Ok, just Crimea & all of Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk & Zaporizhzhia
Ok, all of Ukraine

But not NATO…

Anne Applebaum {The Atlantic} @anneapplebaum | 3:20 AM · Jan 28, 2024:

Russia, an impoverished society, is hoping to capitalize on dysfunction in Washington, interfere in European elections, win the war in Ukraine - and then establish a new set of international rules.
Sounds insane, but that kind of megalomania has emerged from the Kremlin before
------------------------------------------------------

Russia projects confidence as it pursues alliances to undermine West
Catherine Belton | January 27, 2024

Russia is increasingly confident that deepening economic and diplomatic ties with China and the Global South will allow it to challenge the international financial system dominated by the United States and undermine the West, according to Kremlin documents and interviews with Russian officials and business executives.

Russia has been buoyed by its success in holding off a Western-backed Ukrainian counteroffensive followed by political stalemates in Washington and Brussels over continued funding for Kyiv. In Moscow’s view, the U.S. backing of Israel’s invasion of Gaza has damaged Washington’s standing in many parts of the world. The confluence of events has led to a surge of optimism about Russia’s global position.

Officials in Moscow point to growing trade with China, military cooperation with Iran, diplomatic outreach in the Arab world and the expansion of the BRICS grouping of major emerging economies — Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — to include Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Ethiopia...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/01/26/kremlin-global-alliances-ukraine...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/01/26/kremlin-global-alliances-ukraine...

Ukraine’s security service arrests five people accused of $40m arms fraud (Guardian)

Ukraine’s SBU security service has arrested five people who allegedly tried to steal nearly $40m (£31m) that was supposed to be used to buy shells for the country’s military in its war against Russia. The SBU said on Saturday it had arrested two senior officials from the ministry of defence. They had allegedly conspired with the chief executive of a little-known arms firm, Lviv Arsenal, over a contract for 100,000 mortar shells. Another employee and an alleged accomplice were also detained. The ministry paid the amount in full in August of last year. The firm failed to deliver any shells and instead diverted some of the cash to a bank account in the Balkans, it was claimed. The SBU said it had charged five people. One was arrested as he tried to flee the country. All face up to 12 years in prison. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, has tried to clamp down on corruption. He is keen to demonstrate that Ukraine is tackling the problem as it seeks to join the EU and Nato. Both blocs have demanded comprehensive anti-graft reforms...

Douglas Macgregor: U.S. NATO Council to give the Russians a role in Europe | Chas Freeman & Douglas
Interview with Mike Krupa for VotumTV (Polish.)

Posting on sight. (ETA: Sorry, this is a year old, but just posted).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UguD9HzDwfg

Ukraine’s Democracy in Darkness
With elections postponed and no end to the war with Russia in sight, Volodymyr Zelensky and his political allies are becoming like the officials they once promised to root out: entrenched.
By Masha Gessen
January 29, 2024
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2024/02/05/ukraines-democracy-in-darkness

"No wonder India is refusing to buy Russian weapons. China is definitely watching the success rate of Russian weapons closely."

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 2:26 AM · Jan 31, 2024:
Russian Telegram channels report that a drone attacked Nevsky Mazut plant in St Petersburg last night.
There is a fire on the plant's territory, the entrances to the plant are blocked by security services.
0:10 ( https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1752619890526040219 )

4:08 AM · Jan 31, 2024
A drone damaged several tanks of the Nevsky fuel oil refinery "Nevsky Mazut" on Glukhoozerskoye highway in Russian St. Petersburg. Emergency services were working at the site, according to Russian media.

...There are big doubts that everything is well at the plant. AcA drone damaged several tanks of the Nevsky fuel oil refinery "Nevsky Mazut" on Glukhoozerskoye highway in Russian St. Petersburg. Emergency services were working at the site, according to Russian media.

It is reported that around 4:20 a.m. there was an attempt to shoot down the UAV 60 km from St. Petersburg, S-400 missile system was engaged. From 03:53 a.m. to 05:11 a.m. the airspace at Pulkovo airport was closed.

Authorities said the UAV was shot down in Kolpino, but it flew another 30 kilometers and landed on allegedly empty tanks of the Nevsky Mazut plant. That's a world record for survivability: no drone has ever flown 30 kilometers after being shot down.

The Nevsky Mazut refinery produces bunker fuel, in other words, fuel for ships. And the suspension of the refinery's work will hit the logistics from St. Petersburg ports hard.

The drone was being shot down by the latest S-400 system, and, apparently, it failed to fulfill the task.

Nevsky Mazut plant is located close to the center of St Petersburg, about 9 km from the Winter Palace.

No wonder India is refusing to buy Russian weapons. China is definitely watching the success rate of Russian weapons closely.
0:36 ( https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1752619890526040219/video/1 )
map ( https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1752619890526040219/photo/2 )

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 10:02 AM · Jan 31, 2024:

Putin discusses that "historical Russia has risen."
0:33 ( https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1752708936304865684 )

Meanwhile, according to an opinion poll conducted by Russian Public Opinion Research Center in January, less than 10% of Russians feel pride in Putin, the Russian armed forces and their actions in Ukraine.

According to the survey, more than half of Russian citizens - 52% - say they feel "a sense of pride" when they "think about Russia." At the same time, only 9% of respondents are proud of the president and the government.

Only 5% feel pride in the army and Russian weapons, and 8% feel pride in "victories in the SMO". The idea of regaining the lost power in the world also did not find a mass response: "status in the international arena" and "foreign policy" as a source of pride named only 9%.

Ukraine has warned its allies that it is facing a “critical” shortage of artillery shells with Russia deploying three times as much firepower on the frontlines each day - Bloomberg

via Iuliia Mendel @IuliiaMendel | 10:12 PM · Jan 31, 2024:
@UMWallaceHouse fellow; @umichWCEE fellow; The Fight of Our Lives http://shorturl.at/gsOW3; @PostOpinions, @nytimes; spokesperson to @ZelenskyyUa
(2019-2021)
------------------------------------------------

ETA:
EU leaders ‘cautiously optimistic’ on deal with Viktor Orbán over Ukraine
Henry Foy, Alice Hancock, Laura Dubois, Andy Bounds and Paola Tamma in Brussels and Marton Dunai | 1 Feb 2024

Brussels summit is bloc’s last attempt to secure €50bn funding for Kyiv {over four years}and prevent irreparable rift...Ahead of the formal meeting of all EU leaders, holdout Hungarian presisent} Orbán held private talks with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and the bloc’s three most powerful leaders — Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni...

https://www.ft.com/content/d61ccd8c-42b5-4735-a206-64c29d4f80a7

ICJ finds Moscow violated terrorism and anti-discrimination treaties (BBC)

Russia violated elements of terrorism and anti-discrimination treaties, the UN's top court has ruled. However, in allegations brought to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) by Ukraine, judges declined to rule on allegations Russia funded fighters involved in downing Flight MH17. They also declined to order reparations requested by Kyiv. The cases relate to the conflict which erupted in Ukraine in 2014 and were filed in 2017. Meeting in The Hague, the ICJ found that under the anti-terrorism treaty, only allegations that related to the funding of terrorism could be considered, not the alleged supply of weapons and specifically the surface-to-air rocket used to shoot passenger jet MH17 out of the sky. As a result, judges declined to rule specifically on allegations Russia had funded fighters involved in downing the airliner... the ICJ found that Russia had violated the 1999 International Convention for the Suppression of the Financing of Terrorism by failing to investigate people who had allegedly funded pro-Russian separatist groups in eastern Ukraine. The judges ordered Russia to investigate plausible allegations of terrorism funding in Ukraine under the treaty. The ICJ also said limiting school classes in the Ukrainian language in Crimea, which was illegally annexed by Russia in March 2014, was a violation of the 1969 International Convention on the Elimination of Racial Discrimination...

Russia officials see 'errors' in Putin challenger paperwork
DW | 2 Feb 2024

Boris Nadezhdin says he collected over 100,000 signatures, but the Central Election Commission claims many were forged. The move is the latest to keep anyone from challenging Putin in Russia's presidential election.

...Nadezhdin and communist candidate Sergey Malinkovich have been summoned to appear before the Commission on Monday, when officials will reportedly show them the, "results of the checking procedure."

Boris Nadezhdin has previously said he would challenge the Commission's decision in court if he is barred from running.

Political observers in Russia and elsewhere say they assume the Central Election Commission will use any means necessary to keep candidates from challenging Putin, who had the Russian Constitution rewritten in 2020 to make it possible for him to run for two more consecutive terms in office.

...The invasion of Ukraine — which has never been called a war in Russia but rather a "special military operation" — has become a sore spot for Putin domestically and by disqualifying Nadezhdin, the president may be able to conduct his electoral campaign without having to defend his decision to invade Ukraine and plunge Russia into a war with no end in sight.

https://www.dw.com/en/putin-challengers-paperwork-has-errors-says-russian-electo...

Michael Carpenter, U.S. Ambassador to the OSCE @USAmbOSCE | 9:57 AM · Feb 2, 2024:
United States Ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe

This past week, Vladimir Kara-Murza @vkaramurza was moved to solitary confinement in a harsh penal colony for the "crime" of not standing on command. This reflects the pattern of repression within Russia that silences those who dare speak the truth about the Kremlin's war of aggression against Ukraine. #FreeKaraMurza

Image ( https://twitter.com/USAmbOSCE/status/1753432363458056430/photo/1 )
Vladimir Kara-Murza and Evgenia Kara-Murza

‘They told me we’re all Russians’: fears grow over ‘re-education’ of Ukrainian children (Guardian)

Russia, which boasts of taking in 700,000 children, stands accused of trying to erase their Ukrainian identity... “Every day they said to me that I would be staying here for ever and would never leave Russia,” she said. “They told me that Ukraine doesn’t exist, that it never existed, that we’re all Russians … At times the other kids would beat me for being pro-Ukrainian”...

Russian Artillery Gunners Are Getting Cocky. As Ukraine Runs Out Of Ammo, Russian Guns Gather For Devastating Salvos.
David Axe | 2 Feb 2024

...Where as recently as this summer, Ukraine’s artillery enjoyed parity with, if not superiority over, Russia’s own artillery, today the Russians have a fivefold advantage. Ukrainian batteries fire around 2,000 shells a day. Russian batteries fire 10,000.

And as a result, Russian gunners are getting cocky. Unworried by the risk of Ukrainian gunners firing back at them, the Russians are concentrating their biggest guns and launchers for devastating salvos targeting Ukrainian positions in front-line cities...

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/02/02/russian-artillery-gunners-are-g...

Exclusive: Ukrainian general wants Canada’s 83,000 decommissioned rockets
Stewart Bell & Jeff Semple | February 5, 2024

...Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov urged the {Cdn} government to let Ukraine have the decommissioned CRV7 rockets (Saskatchewan military base)...would be used both in Ukrainian attack helicopters and ground launchers to target Russian tanks and artillery.

...Canadian officials said they were looking into the request, but cautioned the CRV7s are decades old and could have become unstable, rendering them dangerous to handle and transport.

The Ukrainians argue they are in a dire predicament and are willing to assume the risks. They said they are accustomed to handling older munitions like the CRV7s...They believe that about 8,000 of the Canadian rockets are in pristine condition and that some are still fitted with warheads. Those rockets that are no longer functional will be stripped of their parts for use in Ukraine’s drone program, the officials said.

...83,303 rockets — most of them tubes with rocket motors but no warheads...Aside from concerns about whether they could be safely airlifted, giving them to Ukraine would mean breaking the contract with the disposal company, which has been building a special facility for the job.

...Experts...said rocket propellent had a limited lifespan and could become unstable after so many years. But since the CRV7s use a solid fuel, they may still be safe, provided they had been stored properly and not exposed to moisture or contamination...

https://globalnews.ca/news/10271532/ukraine-general-canada-crv7-rockets/
_____________________________________

Opinion: Trump’s betrayal of Ukraine
The Republicans refusal to supply arms is sabotaging Kyiv’s war effort
Gideon Rachman | 5 Feb 2024

...Jack Watling of the Royal United Services Institute, a frequent visitor to the frontline in Ukraine, says the situation there is now “extremely serious”. The ammunition shortage has already led to an increase in Ukrainian casualties. With no certainty about when new supplies of materiel will arrive, the Ukrainian military is finding it impossible to plan future operations.

The shortage of weaponry is also having an effect on the willingness of Ukrainians to volunteer for military service. The mounting pressure on the Kyiv government is part of the explanation for the public falling out between President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his commander-in-chief, Valeriy Zaluzhny.

One piece of positive news for Ukraine was last week’s agreement that the EU will provide €50bn in new financial support for the Ukrainian government. In a joint letter to the FT, Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany and four other EU leaders also called for an increase in European military aid.

But European production lines are not yet ready to fill the munitions gap left by the Americans. That will take until at least 2025, and makes the second half of this year potentially very dangerous for Ukraine.

Watling believes that the consequences of the munitions shortage “will initially be felt slowly and then felt fast”. He warns that “when it reaches the point that the consequences are very obvious, it will already be too late”...

https://www.ft.com/content/18c5296a-f0d5-47d5-aacd-af5210d638fc

>55 margd: Never forget: obliterating Gaza was more important.

Yaroslav Trofimov @yarotrof | 6:21 PM · Feb 4, 2024:
Chief Foreign-Affairs Correspondent of The Wall Street Journal.

Russian advances in Avdiivka, which increasingly looks likely to become the first Ukrainian city to fall since the capture of Bakhmut last May, are the direct result of acute ammunition shortage — caused by the U.S. Congress withholding further military aid to Ukraine.

Quote
Rob Lee @RALee85 | 5:36 PM · Feb 4, 2024:
Senior Fellow @FPRI {Foreign Policy Research Institute}. Previously USMC, @ColumbiaSIPA, CentreAST. Focused on Russian defense policy.

After gaining a foothold in the south two weeks ago, Russian forces have advanced and entered Avdiivka from the north over the past few days. {Ukrainian journalists} Butusov and Tsaplienko both say the situation is critical.
https://t.me/DeepStateUA/18771
https://t.me/ButusovPlus/7864
https://t.me/Tsaplienko/47758

aerial photos 1&4Feb 2024
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1754272865510146382/photo/1 https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1754272865510146382/photo/2
Text (https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1754272865510146382/photo/3)
Text & map 4 Feb 2024 (https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1754272865510146382/photo/3 )

Ursula von der Leyen @vonderleyen | 1:52 AM · Feb 6, 2024:
President of the @EU_Commission

Last night’s political agreement on the €50 billion Ukraine Facility is a major step forward.

Europe is true to its word.

We will continue to deliver much-needed funding and predictability for our brave partner and aspiring member.

We aim to start payments in March.
______________________________

"...The aid package — about two-thirds loans and one-third grants — is not intended to help fight off Russia. Apart from supporting the economy and paying for rebuilding, it’s also aimed at setting Ukraine up for future EU membership. The EU has a separate plan for funding arms and ammunition..."

https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-war-russia-hungary-eu-summit-budget-6d0f11bc1...

Goodbye Ukraine.

Goodbye Europe.

Goodbye America.

>56 davidgn: If there is one thing in the world that most democratic and republican politicians agree on is that the state of Israel comes before anything else. I don't think there is much else other than that. Certainly not Ukraine. It's interesting how the democrats are willing to throw even the border issue and the undocumented migrants under the bus. People say on Israel/Palestine 'well Trump would be even worse' but here's the thing Schumer and most Senate and House democrats would get behind Trump whatever draconian measures he would take in support of Israel. They would send twice, three times as much, maybe even put soldiers on the ground.

NEW — BIDEN says he would veto a standalone bill that would provide $17.6 billion to Israel.

{"Does nothing to secure the border, does nothing to help the people of Ukraine, fails to support the security of synagogues, and denies humanitarian assistance to Palestinian civilians, most of whom are women & children."}

Text
https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1754639913524330629/photo/1
https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1754639913524330629/photo/2

- Jake Sherman @JakeSherman | 5:55 PM · Feb 5, 2024
Founder of @punchbowlnews. @nbcnews /@msnbc.

Ukrainian special forces ‘in Sudan operating against Russian mercenaries’ (Guardian)

Ukrainian special forces are reportedly operating in Sudan in support of the country’s army against Russian Wagner mercenaries aligned with the rebel Rapid Support Forces (RSF), according to a video released on Monday. The Kyiv Post released a short film which it said came from sources within Ukrainian military intelligence, responsible for covert operations, showing a captured Russian prisoner being interrogated alongside two African men. The Russian soldier says he is from “PMC Wagner” and came into Sudan from Central African Republic, where fighters from the Russian group are based, “to overthrow the local government” with a force of about 100. The location and content of the video have not been independently verified. However, it has surfaced following months of speculation that Ukrainian forces are operating in Sudan as part of an emerging campaign by Kyiv to strike at Russian interests far beyond the Ukraine war’s frontlines...

Andrew—Author of America Rises On Substack—Wortman
@AmoneyResists
Feb 6 • 18 tweets • 4 min read •
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1754721336029520133.html
Read on X ( https://twitter.com/AmoneyResists/status/1754721336029520133 )

Russia coopted the Republican Party before Trump. The GOP’s lovefest with the Kremlin dates back to 1995...right-winger Allan Carlson met with Ivan Shevchenko, Russian chairman of the group “the orthodox brotherhood of scientists & specialists”...

...“World Congress of Families (WCF),” one of the most prominent Russian-American anti-LGBTQ collaborations to date, and the foremost international anti-LGBTQ organization in the world...

...NRA...

...Trump was initially coopted as a Russian asset before this, of course. Trump-Russia dates back to 1987, when he began renting condos in his shitty buildings to sketchy Russian oligarchs...

>57 margd: contd. WSJ: "Russian advances in Avdiivka, which increasingly looks likely to become the first Ukrainian city to fall since the capture of Bakhmut last May, are the direct result of acute ammunition shortage — caused by the U.S. Congress withholding further military aid to Ukraine."
--------------------------------------

📹: Yurii Butusov
2:38 ( https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1755514529671213434 )

Avdiivka. February 2024.
A zone of total genocide by the Russian army. Demolished buildings, hospitals in ruins, destroyed playgrounds. This is the true face of Putin, of Russia.

- Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 3:50 AM · Feb 8, 2024:
Ukrainian patriot. Advisor to Internal Affairs Minister (2021-2023). Institute of the Future founder.

Things are going badly for Ukraine — really badly
Mia Jankowicz and Tom Porter | Feb 13, 2024

Ukraine is experiencing serious problems in fighting Russia's invasion.

It's running low on troops and ammo, and top commanders are squabbling.

However, Ukraine is hoping to boost its domestic weapons production...

...While it struggles on land, Ukraine's ability to subdue Russia in the Black Sea is an area of ongoing success. About 20% of Russia's Black Sea Fleet has been destroyed, the UK's defense minister, Grant Shapps, said in December.

That's no mean achievement for a country without a functioning navy of its own.

Not every vessel struck by Ukraine would have had a meaningful impact on the ground war, but the actions still come with benefits. Firstly, Ukrainian ports have been able to continue shipping grain — not back up to prewar levels but enough to provide a vital economic boost.

Secondly — and particularly after strikes on the Black Sea Fleet headquarters at Sevastopol last year — Crimea itself is becoming "increasingly vulnerable," Basil Germond, a maritime-security expert at the UK's Lancaster University, told BI.

"It's a political blow to Putin because this contradicts its narrative of Crimea being a 'normal' part of the Russian state," he said.

This matters: Control over the peninsula is a cornerstone of Putin's conception of Russia...

https://www.businessinsider.com/things-going-badly-for-ukraine-war-russia-putin-...

Yaroslav Trofimov @yarotrof | 5:19 AM · Feb 13, 2024:
Chief Foreign-Affairs Correspondent of The Wall Street Journal.

Putin to Carlson: we do not intend to attack NATO countries.
Two days later: Russia issues an arrest warrant for the prime minister of a NATO country.

Interesting that the Russian arrest warrant states the birthplace of the prime minister of Estonia, @kajakallas, as “Estonian Soviet Socialist Republic.” As the Russian song goes, “Russia is where my tank can reach.”
https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1757351689651167374/photo/1
---------------------------------------

Anna Tema @Anatema0: ... So when the ICJ issued an arrest warrant for Putin, they were declaring an intention to attack Russia?

Yaroslav Trofimov @yarotrof: ICC is not a government.

Vladimir Putin surprised by lack of ‘sharp questions’ in Tucker Carlson interview (Guardian)

Russian president Vladimir Putin has said he is grateful to rightwing US television host Tucker Carlson for his interview last week, but was surprised by a lack of “sharp questions”. Former Fox News star Carlson released a two-hour interview with Putin in Moscow on Thursday last week which made headlines around the world. Putin told Russian TV presenter, Pavel Zarubin, on Wednesday that he had wanted Carlson to behave more aggressively, which would have given him the right to reply just as pointedly. “To be honest, I thought that he would behave aggressively and ask so-called sharp questions. I was not just prepared for this, I wanted it, because it would give me the opportunity to respond in the same way,” Putin said in comments broadcast on Wednesday. There was no sign of a response from Carlson in the hours following the Zarubin interview, other than a glowing endorsement of the quality of Moscow’s subway system...

I think outside the USA few people know who this Carlson bloke is, but it appears he's a political spin doctor rather than any sort of real journalist.

>67 John5918: This will about do it for context.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aFQFB5YpDZE

ETA: This basically ended up getting the show cancelled. One of Stewart's finer moments.

ETA: Oh, and this might help as well.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/5M9iJOdlzNM

Janis Kluge @jakluge | 7:22 AM · Feb 16, 2024:
Russia & Economics. Deputy Head of Eastern Europe & Eurasia Division. German Institute for International and Security Affairs

Putin had Navalny killed*, and while he will half-heartedly deny it, he wants everyone to know. Here is a video of Navalny at yesterday's court hearing.

Quote
Медиазона @mediazzzona | 6:52 AM · Feb 16, 2024:
Новостное независимое медиа {News independent media}
SOTAvision опубликовала видео Алексея Навального со вчерашнего заседания Ковровского суда по видеосвязи из Харпа
«Алексей бодр, здоров и весел», — отмечает издание

{SOTAvision published a video of Alexei Navalny from yesterday's meeting of the Kovrov court via video link from Kharp "Alexei is cheerful, healthy and cheerful," the newspaper notes }

Видео: SOTAvision // Антонина Фаворская
{Video: SOTAvision // Antonina Favorskaya}
0:29 ( https://twitter.com/mediazzzona/status/1758459251373031588 )

*margd: Putin's hand in Navalny's death is not yet proven(?), but widely and reasonably assumed given past attempts. RIP, brave Navalny (47). I hope Russia soon takes a turn to peace, justice, prosperity, and freedom...
____________________________________

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 7:59 AM · Feb 16, 2024:
DPhil/PhD Intl Relations @UniofOxford, Assoc Fellow @RUSI_org,
Author "Russia in Africa" & Putin's War on Ukraine

RT {Russia Today} chief Margarita Simonyan claims that opposing forces benefit from Navalny's death

Simonyan mocks The Guardian and Latvia's claims that Navalny was murdered

A conspiracy that the West benefits from Navalny's death before elections is circulating in Russian propaganda outlets
____________________________________

Russian activist and Putin critic Alexei Navalny dies in prison
Opposition leader, 47, was being held in jail about 40 miles north of Arctic Circle
Global reaction to Alexei Navalny’s death – latest updates
Andrew Roth and Helen Sullivan | Fri 16 Feb 2024

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/16/russian-activist-and-putin-critic-...
____________________________________

Bianna Golodryga @biannagolodryga | 7:39 AM · Feb 16, 2024:
CNN Anchor, Senior Global Affairs analyst, journalist...

Navalny’s Valentine’s Day message to his wife, Yulia “Baby, everything with us is like a song: between us there are cities, take-off lights of airfields, blue snowstorms and thousands of kilometers. But I feel that you are near every second, and I love you with all my strength”❤️

Quote
Alexey Navalny @navalny | 4:00 AM · Feb 14, 2024:
Крошка, у нас с тобой все как в песне: между нами города, взлетные огни аэродромов, синие метели и тысячи километров. Но я чувствую, что ты рядом каждую секунду, и я люблю тебя все сильнее ❤️
Photo of the Navalnys ( https://twitter.com/navalny/status/1757691374449664492/photo/1 )
__________________________________

'Putin killed Navalny': Michael McFaul on his friend dying from 'weak' Putin (4:29)
MSNBC | 16 Feb 2024

Fmr. Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul joins Morning Joe to discuss the death of jailed Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zlRDKNWIc-0
___________________________________

Yaroslav Trofimov @yarotrof | 6:28 AM · Feb 16, 2024:
Chief Foreign-Affairs Correspondent of The Wall Street Journal. Author...

Russian opposition leader Navalny felt sick during a walk, fainted and died quickly after that, as per Russian prison services statement.
Text ( https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1758453324716617893/photo/1 )
____________________________________

Anton Gerashchenko {Ukraine blogger} @Gerashchenko_en | 8:44 AM · Feb 16, 2024:

Today, the Russian authorities reported the death of the convicted opposition activist Aleksey Navalny, allegedly due to a "blood clot". I would like to recall the main events of his life. We will follow the further development of events.

🔷Political activity:
▪️From 2000 to 2007, Navalny was a member of the Russian United Democratic Party Yabloko.
▪️ In 2009, he was an advisor to Nikita Belykh, governor of Kirov region and former leader of the Union of Right Forces.
▪️In 2012, he was a member of the Board of Directors of Aeroflot.
▪️In 2013, he ran for mayor of Moscow, and in 2016 he announced his intention to run for president of Russia. However, the Russian election committee refused to register him.

In 2001, Aleksey Navalny called United Russia "a party of crooks and thieves" in a live broadcast. This expression spread across the web and became an Internet meme.

🔷Movies:
▪️ A film-investigation about the illegal enrichment of Russian
Dmitry Medvedev (then Russian PM), narrated by Navalny, became extremely popular, and its title "Don't Call Him Dimon" became the slogan of a number of anti-corruption protests that took place across Russia.
▪️ In 2019, Aleksey Navalny released a two-hour movie "Putin's Palace. History of World's Largest Bribe" about a luxury mansion on the Black Sea coast, which belongs to Putin and is financed by people from his entourage.

🔹On August 20, 2020, Navalny became ill on board a plane. The plane made an emergency landing in Omsk and the politician was hospitalized, Russian doctors denied that it was poisoning. On August 22, the Russian oppositionist was transported to Germany's Charité clinic, whose doctors later said he had been poisoned with Novichok poison. On October 1, Navalny blamed the poisoning on Putin.

🔹On January 17, 2021, Navalny returned to Russia and was detained at Sheremetyevo airport. He was accused of violating his probation and detained for 30 days before being sentenced to 3.5 years in a general regime colony.

🔹In August 2023, Navalny was sentenced to 19 years in prison on charges of organizing an "extremist community" and several other articles of Russian crooked justice. In December, he was transferred to a colony in the far north - in the settlement of Kharp in the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug.

"We have no way to confirm it (the death) or prove it's not true. Navalny's lawyer is on his way to Kharp," the politician's associate Leonid Volkov said.

Navalny was alive and looked healthy at a court hearing yesterday, as the video from the court proves.

🔷According to the version of the Kremlin channels, Navalny became ill around 1 p.m. An ambulance was called, the doctors tried to drain him, but failed - at 2:17 p.m. he died. Two minutes later, information about his death appeared on the penitentiary system's website.

It was reported that Navalny had no previous complaints about his health.

...⚡️Aleksey Navalny has died in prison - Russian Federal Penitentiary Service. They wrote:
"On 16.02.2024 in the correctional colony number 3, convict Navalny A.A. has felt unwell after a walk, and has lost consciousness almost immediately. The medical workers of the institution have arrived at once, an emergency medical brigade was summoned.

All the necessary resuscitation measures were carried out, but did not yield positive results. Emergency doctors confirmed the death of the convict,” the release said.

"Following the decision of Aleksey Navalny's family, I do not comment on anything at the moment. We are figuring it out. The lawyer visited Aleksey on Wednesday. Everything was all right then" - Navalny's lawyer Leonid Solovyev told Novaya Gazeta.

Putin kills and will continue murdering anyone he wants.
Photo ( https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1758454641031823414/photo/1 )
____________________________________

Hillary Clinton @HillaryClinton | 8:26 AM · Feb 16, 2024:

“Listen, I've got something very obvious to tell you. You’re not allowed to give up. If they decide to kill me, it means that we are incredibly strong.” - Alexei Navalny

My deepest condolences to Alexei Navalny’s family and friends, to his staff, and to the people of Russia.
----------------------------------------------------

‘In case I am killed, don’t give up’: Alexei Navalny’s ‘final message’ to Russian people (1:10)
Navalny's 'final message' to Russian people if he is killed recorded in documentary before death Storyville, Navalny, BBC
Independent TV
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/in-case-i-am-killed-don-t-give-up-alexei-na...
_____________________________________

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 8:28 AM · Feb 16, 2024:

MPs of the United Russia (ruling) party have been told to keep silent about Navalny's death, Russian Telegram channels report.

According to a source of a Russian news agency, the instruction came from the United Russia apparatus about two hours after Navalny's death was announced by the Federal Penitentiary Service (FSIN).

https://www.mediaite.com/politics/former-u-s-russian-ambassador-mourns-friend-na...
Former U.S. Russian Ambassador Mourns ‘Friend’ Navalny: ‘Putin Killed Navalny. Let’s Be Crystal Clear’

***
Interesting timing. Navalny died days after Tucker Carlson interviewed Putin and profusely praised the wonders of sites in Moscow that he visited.

>70 Molly3028: It's unforgivable.

Joe: Trump, Johnson are what stands between Congress passing or not passing Ukraine aid (10:48)
MSNBC | Feb 20, 2024

NBC News Chief Foreign Correspondent reports on the hardships Ukrainian soldiers are facing in the war and the state of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. Joe Scarborough weighs in about the effort in Congress to give Ukraine more aid and how the aid is being held up by Donald Trump and Speaker Mike Johnson.

...Avdiivka...Zaporizhzhia...Trump & Mike Johnson & Orban (NATO"s Hungary)...allies stepping up...Mark Levin "This is not theoretical" Putin eyeing Poland, Romania, and the Balkan States {Norwegian islands, too?}...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JdShhnO7BB4
---------------------------------------------
e.g., ally JAPAN:

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 3:34 PM · Feb 19, 2024:
Japan will provide $12.1 billion in aid to Ukraine — Prime Minister Fumio Kishida during a meeting with the Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal.
Prime Minister Fumio Kishida emphasized that Japan's position in support of Ukraine remains unwavering.
Thankful to the people and government of Japan for your support!

---------------------------------------------
e.g., ally DENMARK:

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 4:48 AM · Feb 18, 2024
Denmark has decided to send all its artillery to Ukraine — Mette Frederiksen, Prime Minister of Denmark.
"Ukraine is asking us for ammunition and artillery now. We, Denmark, have decided to transfer all our artillery to Ukraine. So, sorry, friends, there is military equipment in Europe, it is not only a matter of production. We have weapons, ammunition, air defense systems, which we do not use yet. They must be handed over to Ukraine."
Thank you, Denmark! You are true friends!
---------------------------------------------
RUSI outlook:

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 9:06 AM · Feb 20, 2024:

‼️2024 is the decisive year‼️

The Royal United Services Institute for Defense and Security Studies (RUSI {UK defense & security think tank}) released a new report recently that says Russia will reach the peak of its capabilities at the end of 2024.

🔷According to the report, Russia is still confident it can reach its strategic goal and overtake Ukraine. To fulfill this goal, it will act in three ways:
▪️Continue pressure along the entire front line to deplete the AFU of ammunition and personnel;
▪️Russian intelligence services will have to seek to break the resolve of international partners to reduce military and economic aid to Ukraine;
▪️Continue major offensive operations to seize new territories.

The planning horizon for achieving these objectives, which are the basis for the formation of Russian armed forces and industrial production, envisages achieving victory by 2026.

🔷Russian military capabilities:
After Russia failed to capture Ukraine quickly, it declared mobilization and formed a group of 360,000 soldiers on the front line in 2023 (we are talking specifically about combat soldiers, without supply personnel, rear service personnel, and clerks). It continued to increase its numbers, and by 2024, the Russian army in the occupied territories already consists of 470,000 soldiers.

At the same time, Ukraine has been able to inflict serious damage on Russian aviation, which has lost many of its skilled pilots. However, Russia still has pilots with sufficient experience to carry out key missions.

Russia has the potential to ensure a steady pace of its offensives throughout 2024.

🔷Russian economy:
Russia has been able to mobilize its economy and increase the introduction of tanks to 1,500 and armored vehicles to 3,000 per year. Despite these seeming successes, the quality of the output is generally low.

The most serious challenge for Russia, however, is the shortage of 152-mm and 122-mm shells. Russian military leadership estimates its needs for 2024 at 4 million of the former and 1.6 million of the latter, of which the industry is prepared to produce only 1.3 million and 800,000 respectively in 2024.

‼️Russian theory of victory seems plausible only if Ukraine's international partners do not provide the AFU {Armed Forces of Ukraine} with resources. But if Ukraine's partners continue to provide sufficient support, it will be difficult for Russia to succeed. After 2026, the deterioration of the military and economic system will reduce Russia's combat power, and Ukraine's proper sustainability (provided by the West) will force Russia to reconsider its plans.

Link to the research:
Commentary: Russian Military Objectives and Capacity in Ukraine Through 2024
Dr Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds | 13 February 2024
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/russian-military-o...

Wagner in Africa: How the Russian mercenary group has rebranded (BBC)

Russia is offering governments in Africa a "regime survival package" in exchange for access to strategically important natural resources, a major new report has found. Internal Russian government documents, seen by the BBC, also detail how it is working to change mining laws in West Africa, with the ambition of dislodging Western companies from an area of strategic importance. This is part of the process of the Russian government taking over the businesses of the Wagner mercenary group, broken up after a failed coup in June 2023. The multibillion dollar operations are now mostly being run as the Russian "Expeditionary Corps", managed by the man accused of being behind the attempt to murder Sergei Skripal using the Novichok nerve agent on the streets of the UK - a charge Russia has denied. "This is the Russian state coming out of the shadows in its Africa policy," says Jack Watling, land warfare specialist at the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi) and one of the report's authors...

Talking of rebranding, US private military corporations (aka mercenary companies) are also active in Africa running, believe it or not, humanitarian aid operations as sub-contractors of the US government. While they may have neither the expertise nor the philosophy of humanitarianism, they are quite good at the logistical and bureaucratic processes involved in obtaining and reporting on USAID funding.

Hunter Biden informant charged with lying had high-level Russian contacts: Documents
Mike Levine, Lucien Bruggeman, and Alexander Mallin | February 20, 2024

Alexander Smirnov was indicted for alleged false statements and obstruction...

Special Counsel David Weiss reveals that after his arrest last week, Alexander Smirnov told the FBI "that officials with Russian intelligence were involved in passing a story" about Hunter Biden.

Prosecutors argued in their filing Smirnov should be held pending trial, with Weiss saying that Smirnov's claims he has active contacts with "multiple foreign intelligence agencies" and had planned to leave the U.S. just two days after his arrival in the U.S. last week "for a months-long, multi-country foreign trip."...

https://abcnews.go.com/US/hunter-biden-informant-charged-lying-high-level-russia...

Anne Applebaum (The Atlantic) @anneapplebaum | 7:34 AM · Feb 21, 2024:

Words of condemnation are pointless. The right response to Navalny's death is to give frozen Russian assets to Ukraine, now:
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/12/ukraine-russia-frozen-assets/6...

Josh Marshall @joshtpm | 12:44 PM · Feb 21, 2024:
Founder & reigning monarch at TPM. Lapsed historian. Polk Award winner. ✡️ (Sign up for my newsletter The Backchannel http://bit.ly/3LXafUs)

Don’t think most people get the magnitude of the Hunter Biden/Smirnov revelations. One big ongoing Russian operation from 2015 until today. Basically confirms what was always obvious, “Hunter Biden laptop” was part of the same operation.

A Bigger Story Than You Can Possibly Imagine
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/a-bigger-story-than-you-can-possibly-imagin... Member Newsletter | February 21, 2024

Behind the Debate over U.S. Military Aid to Ukraine (International Crisis Group)

Two years after Russia’s all-out invasion of Ukraine, Washington is struggling to maintain support for Kyiv. A new assistance package is stuck in Congress. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Sarah Harrison explains what is causing the holdup and what it could mean for the war... Opposition to the assistance is concentrated among Trump’s staunchest supporters in Congress... opposition to the aid package seems more a manifestation of political fealty to Trump than an expression of strong policy preferences... As for Trump’s own objectives, these have not yet fully emerged. Beyond a desire to deal the Biden administration a political blow, he appears to be setting the stage for realigning U.S. strategic priorities should he be elected. The implications for Washington’s transatlantic partners could be substantial. In addition to saying he would cut any remaining aid to Ukraine as part of an effort to force a peace deal between it and Russia (an approach that would likely leave Ukraine at the mercy of its far more powerful neighbour), the former president has also signalled an intention to distance Washington from its longstanding NATO allies... If Ukraine does not get more U.S. military aid, it may find itself struggling to sustain its fight before too long. Battlefield assessments are bleak... Now, despite significant losses of personnel over the last two years, it is Moscow that has the momentum and is pressing Ukrainian defences... As of now, no other state can match the U.S. in delivering military aid on short timelines. Even though European military aid allocations for Ukraine are only €2 billion (about $2.16 billion) less than those of the U.S., the latter (unlike the EU and its member states) has vast stocks from which it can draw...

>77 John5918: "he appears to be setting the stage for realigning U.S. strategic priorities should he be elected."

Wish DOJ would release unredacted Mueller report...

"The Mueller report, officially titled Report On The Investigation Into Russian Interference In The 2016 Presidential Election, is the official report documenting the findings and conclusions of former Special Counsel Robert Mueller's investigation into Russian efforts to interfere in the 2016 United States presidential election, allegations of conspiracy or coordination between Donald Trump's presidential campaign and Russia, and allegations of obstruction of justice." (Wikipedia)

The Smirnov Affair: MAGA Republicans Are Useful Idiots for Russian Intelligence
How GOP lawmakers got caught doing Moscow’s dirty work.
David Corn | 23 Feb 2024

...the Party of Trump and its leader...seem unconcerned about collaborating—colluding?—with a Kremlin operation. After all, it worked for Trump in 2016, and since then he and his cult have demonstrated no reluctance to be exploited by Russia or to exploit Russian disinformation, even as Putin wages a horrendous war in Ukraine and intensifies his repressive and murderous reign at home. The Smirnov case—of which there is much more to learn—shows not only that Trump and the GOP are Putin dupes; they are willing dupes.

https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2024/02/smirnov-biden-fbi-comer-jordan-giul...

Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar | 9:33 AM · Feb 27, 2024:
ISW is a policy research organization focused on U.S. national security.
https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1762486072787767317

ISW continues to assess that Russia will likely be able to determine the time, location, and scale of future offensive operations in Ukraine if Ukraine conducts an active defense throughout the theater in 2024, thereby ceding the strategic initiative to Russia. (1/3)

Quote
Square profile picture
Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar · 10h
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on February 25 that Russia is preparing a new offensive that will start in late May or summer 2024, consistent with ISW’s assessment that Russian forces have regained the theater-wide initiative... 🧵(1/6) x.com/

2/ Russian forces will have the ability to maneuver reserve concentrations and determine how and where to allocate resources while forcing Ukraine to respond defensively as long as Russia maintains the strategic initiative.

3/ Ukrainian forces could deny Russia these opportunities if Ukrainian forces have enough means to challenge the Russian initiative and pursue their own offensive operations in 2024.

Janis Kluge @jakluge | 2:17 AM · Feb 27, 2024:
Russia & Economics. Deputy Head of Eastern Europe & Eurasia Division. German Institute for International and Security Affairs (Berlin)

After several attacks on Russian refineries, Russia is worried that it won't have enough gasoline in the coming months. It has once again banned exports to keep prices from rising.
https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6533716

Yulia Navalnaya spoke in the European Parliament.

"You are dealing not with a politician but with a bloody mafiosi. Putin is the head of an organized criminal group....The political innovation is that the methods that need to be used are ones used to fight organized crime, not political competition. Not diplomatic notes, but investigation of intricate financial schemes. Not expressing concern but searching for mafia accomplices in your countries, invisible lawyers and financial experts who help Putin and his friends hide money," Navalnaya said about Putin.

In the video, she speaks of the full-scale war Putin wages against Ukraine.

0:52 English ( https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1762804030164639868 )

- Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 6:36 AM · Feb 28, 2024

And so it begins...

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 7:47 AM · Feb 28, 2024:
"Transnistria has addressed Russia asking for help due to economic blockade from Moldova, declaration was adopted by a congress of deputies" - Russian Ria Novosti.

According to an alleged text of the declaration, published by a Telegram channel, the deputies are asking Russia to:

"carry out a complex of events to defend Transnistria in the conditions of Moldova intensifying its pressure, taking into account the fact that over 220 thousand of Russian citizens have permanent residency in Transnistrian Moldovan Repulic, and the unique positive experience of the Russian peacekeeping on the Dniester, and its status as guarantor and mediator in the negotiations process."

The declaration reportedly also approves addresses to the UN and various EU institutions, as well as CIS members asking them to influence Moldova.
Text
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1762821713702629692/photo/1
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1762821713702629692/photo/2

Quote
Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 3:59 AM · Feb 28, 2024:
A "congress of deputies of all levels" is gathering in unrecognized Transnistria. It hasn't been convened for 18 years.
0:11 ( https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1762764556802064445 )

>83 margd: I called that one too. Looks like the plan is to at least threaten Odessa. I hope this can still be stopped while Ukraine retains a seacoast.

Getting Ukraine’s History Right Is Crucial for Anti-Imperialist Politics (truthout)

This month marks the 10th anniversary of the 2014 Maidan Revolution in Ukraine, which ousted President Viktor Yanukovych and in turn prompted the Russian seizure of Crimea and the Russian-backed secessionist movement in the Donbas. It also marks the second anniversary of the Russian invasion eight years later. Western anti-imperialists have correctly recognized a number of provocative actions and other missteps by the United States and NATO which are a necessary part of the context for the ongoing tragedy. However, it is essential for us to get our criticisms right if we are going to build a progressive, internationalist alternative...

Now do
Moldova (Transnistria)
Norway (Svalbard archipelago)
Japan (Kuril Islands Northern Territories)
Africa...

Transnistria appeals to Russia for ‘protection’, reviving fears for Moldova breakaway region
Guardian staff and agencies | Wed 28 Feb 2024

US says it is closely watching situation in key region on Ukraine border after officials asked Moscow for help against the government in Moldova...

...Russia...one of its “priorities” was to protect the thin sliver of land, which has been de facto controlled by pro-Russian forces since the collapse of the Soviet Union but is internationally recognised as part of Moldova...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/29/transnistria-moldova-breakaway-reg...
-----------------------------------------------

{Russian} Deputy Prime Minister {in charge of Far Eastern and Arctic affairs} sends warning to Oslo: Russian rights at Svalbard {archipelago, where seeds stored} must not be challenged
Atle Staalesen | February 13, 2024

"Today, our warriors are spilling blood for the sovereignty of our country and the rights of people to speak the Russian language," Yuri Trutnev said in a government commission meeting devoted to the situation on the Norwegian Arctic archipelago.

...In what appeared as an organized and coordinated campaign, a number of state-affiliated Russian newspapers and media companies published series of stories that expressed a highly negative, partly aggressive, attitude towards the authorities in Oslo. The message was that Norway must comply with Russian demands in Svalbard and that continued opposition could have serious consequences.

Norway has full sovereignty over the archipelago in accordance with the Svalbard Treaty of 1920, and individuals and companies from signatory states are allowed to engage in economic activity. Russians have since the 1930s run coal mines in the area...

https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/2024/02/deputy-prime-minister-sends-warning-os...
----------------------------------------

Russia to Japan: Drop territorial claim if you want a peace treaty
Andrew Osborn | January 30, 2024

Deputy head of Russia's Security Council Medvedev marks WW2 victory over Japan

Russia won't cede on territorial dispute - Medvedev
Question of disputed islands is closed for Russia
Kuril islands will continue to be militarised
Medvedev accuses Japan of cosying up to US

Jan 30 (Reuters) - Senior Russian security official Dmitry Medvedev told Japan on Tuesday it would have to drop territorial claims to a group of Pacific islands if it wanted to conclude a peace treaty with Russia formally ending World War Two.

The blunt remarks by Medvedev, a former president who is deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council, over what Moscow calls the Kuril islands are likely to anger Japan which lays claim to four of the southernmost islands, which it calls the Northern Territories.

Russia, the main successor state to the Soviet Union, and Japan have never signed a peace treaty formally ending their hostilities during World War Two, with the islands remaining the primary stumbling block.

The islands are located off Hokkaido, Japan's northernmost main island, and were seized by the Soviet Union at the end of World War Two...

https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-japan-drop-territorial-claim-if-you-want-pe...
--------------------------------------------------

Russia’s Growing Footprint in Africa
Mariel Ferragamo | December 28, 2023

Summary
While Moscow’s involvement in Africa lags behind other powers, it is increasingly tapping into anti-Western sentiment to bolster its influence on the continent amid geopolitical competition between Russia and the West.

Critics of growing involvement by Russia’s Wagner Group, a private military company, say Moscow is bolstering authoritarianism, driving conflict over resources, and threatening human rights.

The fallout from the war in Ukraine has revealed diplomatic fault lines. Analysts say the West needs to pursue more equal partnerships with African countries...

https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/russias-growing-footprint-africa

I think, Putin's speech at Russia's Federal Assembly--

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 4:46 AM · Feb 29, 2024:

No lasting world order is possible without a sovereign, strong Russia – Putin.

Some of his other statements:

◾️The West unleashed war in Ukraine and the Middle East, and now they say that we are going to attack their territory - they are talking nonsense.

◾️It is necessary to seriously strengthen the military grouping in the western direction after Sweden and Finland were drawn into NATO.

◾️Russophobia deprives of reason.

◾️No lasting world order is possible without a strong Russia.

◾️We, too, have weapons that can hit targets on their territory.

◾️We remember the fate of those who sent their contingents into the territory of our country. Now, the consequences for the interventionists will be much more tragic.

0:07 Putin, untranslated ( https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1763138678501548513 )
0:13 Medvedev, listening intently ( https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1763150506367558002 )

Elon Musk's Starlinks reportedly sold openly on Chinese website. How can Elon Musk be eligible for US defense and space contracts??

Jay in Kyiv @JayinKyiv | 11:07 AM · Feb 28, 2024:
No longer blocked, Russians are pouring Musk's starlinks to the front to help them murder people in Ukraine.

0:36 (https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1762872088203780203 )
From Czarne Niebo NEWS

Yulia Navalnaya @yulia_navalnaya | 8:14 AM · Mar 1, 2024:

Translated from Russian by Google
Lyosha, thank you for 26 years of absolute happiness. Yes, even over the last three years of happiness. For love, for always supporting me, for making me laugh even from prison, for the fact that you always thought about me.

I don’t know how to live without you, but I will try to make you up there happy for me and proud of me. I don't know if I can handle it or not, but I will try.

We will definitely meet one day. I have so many untold stories for you, and I have so many songs saved for you on my phone, stupid and funny, in general, to be honest, terrible songs, but they are about us, and I really wanted to let you listen to them. And I really wanted to watch you listen to them, laugh, and then hug me.

Love you forever. Rest in peace.
2:04 ( https://twitter.com/yulia_navalnaya/status/1763553407690788881 )
----------------------------------------------

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 8:56 AM · Mar 1, 2024

Yulia Nalimova, a follower of Russian Z-activist Pozdnyakov, threw away flowers at the monument to the victims of political repression in St. Petersburg (makeshift memorial after Navalny's death).

In the video, she asks people, "And who are you mourning for?! Good luck."

She signed her Instagram story with the words, "To a dog, a dog's death, and no flowers."
0:22 ( https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1763563988858679628 )
----------------------------------------------

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 8:51 AM · Mar 1, 2024:
People who came to Navalny's funeral chant "No to war!"
0:20 ( https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1763562696211866004 )

The crowd chants "Putin is a murderer!" - Russian media. x.com/
0:08 ( https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1763541193672085575 )

Russian Telegram channels report that a line to the farewell ceremony for Alexei Navalny is about a kilometer long.
The hearse hasn't arrived yet.
Reportedly, the cemetery where Navalny has been buried has been closed today.
There are a lot of police in the area.
1:26 ( https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1763513967987605911 )

Alexei Navalny was buried. Thousands of people who came were not allowed to say goodbye to him.
Reportedly, Frank Sinatra's song My Way played at the cemetery.
On the video, people chant "Let us through to say goodbye!"
0:17 ( https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1763558025095201194 )

Alexei Navalny's mother is saying goodbye to him.
Navalny's team published a video of the people in line to the church. It is several kilometers long.
0:20 & 0:30 ( https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1763537807790764171 )
____________________________________
ETA
Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 10:15 AM · Mar 1, 2024:

Russian media report that about 30 people were detained in Moscow, Yekaterinurg and Novosibirsk at the funeral and memorials of Alexei Navalny.

18 people were detained in Novosibirsk for bringing flowers to Navalny's makeshift memorial. 10 more were detained in Yekaterinburg for the same reason.

Reportedly, in Moscow a person was detained for shouting "Who killed Navalny?"

Wilkerson's latest.
Incompetence is Killing the US | Col. Larry Wilkerson
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m1i1w0Hp5EI

After Navalny...

‘We Are Being Punished for Daring to Criticize the Authority’
Anne Applebaum | 3 March 2024

Following a grim tradition, a brave Russian human-rights advocate {Oleg Orlov, co-chair of the “Memorial” Centre for Defence of Human Rights} speaks out before being sent to prison {2.5 yrs for discrediting the Russian Armed Forces}...“These are all links in the same chain. Alexey’s death or, rather, murder; the trials of other critics of the regime including myself; the suffocation of freedom in the country; the invasion of Ukraine by the Russian army. So I have decided to speak.” ...

...The law is whatever Putin dictates. Everything else, the lawyers, prosecutors, and judges, are just there for show, to pretend that there is rule of law when there is not...

GIFT ARTICLE -- https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/03/oleg-orlov-russian-activist-me...
-------------------------------------------

“Memorial” Centre for Defence of Human Rights recognized as foreign agent three days after verdict against Oleg Orlov
1 March 2024
https://eng.kavkaz-uzel.eu/articles/64083
--------------------------------------------

Memorial was one of three Nobel Peace Prize Laureates in 2022:
https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/2022/memorial/lecture/

Michael McFaul McFaul | 1:40 AM · Mar 5, 2024:
{Stanford U, frmr US ambassador to Russia)

Look at this map rolled out by @MedvedevRussiaE & then explain to me how @ZelenskyyUa is supposed to negotiate with Putin now.

Map Medvedev & sw border as envisioned by Russia ( https://twitter.com/McFaul/status/1764903672159617502/photo/1 )

ICC issues arrest warrants for top Russian commanders (BBC)

The International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued arrest warrants for top Russian commanders over alleged war crimes in Ukraine. Sergei Kobylash and Viktor Sokolov, an army lieutenant general and a navy admiral, are the two men named by the ICC. This is the second round of warrants for Russian officials related to the war in Ukraine. The first were for President Vladimir Putin and his children's rights envoy. Russia does not recognise the ICC, making it highly unlikely they will ever be deported to face the charges. The ICC said the latest warrants were due to there being reasonable grounds to believe that the two suspects were responsible for "missile strikes carried out by the forces under their command against the Ukrainian electric infrastructure"... The court said that the attacks caused civilian harm and damage that would have been clearly excessive. The two men "are each allegedly responsible for the war crime of directing attacks at civilian objects" and are also accused of the "crime against humanity of inhumane acts", the court said...

Ukraine Is Now Fighting Russia in Sudan (WSJ)

In fighting against Russian-backed rebels in Sudan, Ukraine hopes to make the war more costly for Moscow... When Lt. Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, Sudan’s military ruler, found himself besieged by rebel forces in the country’s capital last summer, he called an unlikely ally for help: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Zelensky had reasons to take the request seriously: Burhan had been quietly supplying Kyiv with weapons since shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, according to Ukrainian and Sudanese military officials. In addition, the Sudanese rebels were backed by Russia’s Wagner paramilitary group, which has also mined gold in the country and used it to fund Moscow’s war in Ukraine...

>94 John5918: The phrase "fractal clusterfuck" comes to mind.

James Landis #Fella 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 🇨🇿 @JamesLLandis | 2:40 PM · Mar 9, 2024:
Global security professional, U.S. State Department DSS SSA 2501 (ret), RSO, Diplomat and USMC 0802.

Russia's demographic problem.
- Russia's population peaked in the early 1990s at about 149 million
- Russia's population today is 144 million
- Russia's fertility rate is 1.4
- Male life expectancy is 65 years
Do the math. Russia is F__ked.

Pope Francis: “Ukraine must have the courage to raise the white flag and negotiate.”

1:09 Italian subtitles
https://twitter.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1766701584870719522

1:09 English subtitles
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1766785979472388251
--------------------------------------------

What does Our Lady of Fátima have to do with Russia and Ukraine?
Jane Sloan Peters | March 15, 2022

On March 15 {2022}, the Vatican announced that Pope Francis, heeding a request from the Catholic bishops of Ukraine, will consecrate Russia and Ukraine to the Immaculate Heart of Mary during a penance service on Friday, March 25. Cardinal Konrad Krajewski, the papal almoner, will carry out the same act in Fátima on the same day.

...Asking Mary’s intercession for the conversion of Russia has been a recurrent priority of the church in the last 100 years. At Fátima, Mary asked that Russia be consecrated to her Immaculate Heart. In 1929, she renewed her request in an appearance to Lucia, who was then preparing for life as a religious sister.

...On Oct. 13, 1942, in the thick of the Second World War, Pope Pius XII consecrated the world to the Immaculate Heart of Mary. Ten years later, during the Cold War, he specifically consecrated the Russian people to her Immaculate Heart, in the hopes Mary would intercede in bringing about “a true peace, fraternal concord, and the freedom due to all people.”...

https://www.americamagazine.org/faith/2022/03/15/ukraine-russia-rosary-fatima-wa...

>97 margd:

For the record, the Vatican has clarified that the pope's reference to a white flag did not mean that Ukraine should surrender, but rather that the white flag is a symbol of the need for negotiation (link).

Johnson says he expects to take up Ukraine aid with Democratic votes
Olivia Beavers | 03/14/2024

Speaker Mike Johnson...expects to pass a future Ukraine assistance bill with Democratic votes, an acknowledgment of the persistent resistance to any new aid within the GOP...aid to both Ukraine and Israel could come up as one or even two separate bills. He said he anticipates it would happen using the House’s suspension calendar, which he’s used often in recent days to overcome pushback from his own party.

“I think it is a stand-alone, and I suspect it will need to be on suspension,” Johnson said of foreign assistance.

...The suspension calendar requires a two-thirds majority to approve legislation on the House floor — meaning Johnson would need a substantial number of Democratic votes. He has taken that approach with many contentious measures so far in his speakership...

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/14/mike-johnson-israel-ukraine-aid-bill-00...
______________________________________

Meanwhile, on eve of Russian election (15-17 March 2024):

Russian Defectors Tell Putin to Evacuate Belgorod: 'Forced to Inflict Fire'
Isabel van Brugen | Mar 13, 2024

Three groups of Russian defectors serving with the Ukrainian Armed Forces have urged President Vladimir Putin to evacuate the country's border regions of Belgorod and Kursk as they prepare to shell the positions of troops in the area.

The warning was issued in a joint statement on Wednesday by three Ukraine-aligned military units—the Freedom of Russia Legion, the Siberian Battalion and the Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK)—who said they had crossed into Russian territory a day earlier, and that they captured the village of Tyotkino in the Kursk region, less than 3 miles from the border with Ukraine.

"Every day, dozens of ordinary innocent Ukrainians (mostly women and children) die from shelling from Belgorod. The shelling of Ukraine from the territory of Belgorod must stop!" said the statement posted on Telegram. "In this regard, we are forced to inflict fire on military positions located in Belgorod. To avoid civilian casualties, we urge everyone to leave the city immediately."...

"We appeal to our fellow citizens: residents of the city of Belgorod, officials of the Belgorod administration and all those who hear us," the statement said. "Putin's killers are carrying out massive attacks on peaceful Ukrainian cities, placing their positions between your homes, your children's schools and government institutions...We call on local authorities to save human lives and begin evacuation from the cities of Kursk and Belgorod regions."

...Alexei Baranovsky, a volunteer of the Freedom of Russia Legion ... an operation was launched "with united forces of Ukraine's Russian volunteer units crossing the border together." Putin's forces, Baranovsky said, "did not expect these breakthroughs in two separate regions simultaneously, so let's see how this situation unfolds."

https://www.newsweek.com/russian-defectors-putin-evacuate-belgorod-kursk-1878830
---------------------------------------------

Need confirmation, but...

Daractenus @Daractenus | 12:39 PM · Mar 14, 2024:
There seems to be a breakthrough in Belgorod and there are lots of UA helicopters landing troops in the area.

Grab a coffee, this will be an interesting night. Turns out this might not be just another incursion into Belgorod.

Superb update from Amb. Chas Freeman on all questions of present interest (In rough order Ukraine/Russia -- China -- Israel)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=om0omxonClU

>100 davidgn:

No mention of the other war which is certainly causing as big a humanitarian disaster as Israel-Gaza, namely Sudan?

>100 davidgn: IF report of helicopters ferrying troops into Russian territory is true, hope they weren't NATO helicopters, which they must be unless they are leftovers from Soviet days? Sounds like Ukrainians are becoming skilled in drone manufacturing and deployment, and reportedly troops headed to Belgorod are Russians that came over to Ukrainian side, but NATO involvement can be plausibly denied unless helicopters transporting troops were from the West?

GOP Ex-Reps. To Johnson: Pass the Ukraine Bill
William Kristol | 15 March 2024

"...When we were given the privilege of serving in the United States Congress, we proudly served as members of the Republican Party. We were, and still are, dedicated to beliefs including limiting government overreach, supporting our military, and standing up to autocrats while defending democracies. It is not an exaggeration to say that our world is at a critical juncture. Vladimir Putin has a desire to change our world order as he has shown a territorial and barbaric thirst for Russian expansion. He has killed his political adversaries and jailed innocent Americans. So much is at stake: Alexei Navalny gave up his family, his health, and most recently, his life. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has given up any assurance of personal safety. The Ukrainian people have given up everything but hope. We urge you not to let these sacrifices be in vain and to bring the Ukrainian aid bill to the floor as soon as possible..."
https://www.thebulwark.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/03.07_Letter_to_Speaker_Jo...

https://plus.thebulwark.com/p/former-gop-lawmakers-urge-speaker?r=1emko

>101 John5918: Quite right, John. Amb. Freeman does have that not-uncommon blind spot.

Following a meeting with his French and Polish counterparts, Germany’s Chancellor Scholz said Europe will use profits from seized Russian assets to purchase weapons for Ukraine.

0:46 in German ( https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1768711567548244105 )

- DW News @dwnews | 2:51 PM · Mar 15, 2024

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 1:20 PM · Mar 16, 2024:
Ukrainian patriot. Advisor to Internal Affairs Minister (2021-2023). Institute of the Future founder.

An armed and masked soldier checks a voting cabin when a voter is inside. "Look what's going on, and it's been like that the whole day" - a voice is heard behind the camera, presumably of an observer.

We've already seen imitations and falsifications of elections in Russia, but it's the first time I'm seeing a soldier with a rifle looking over the voter's back. ...

0:14 ( https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1769051177528725692 )

Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 @IAPonomarenko | 3:23 PM · Mar 17, 2024:
Live straight out of Bucha

So, with Russia's operation to observe meaningless formalities and re-crown Vladimir Putin for the next 6 years of his lifelong rule (a.k.a. 'Russian presidential elections'), which continues since the pre-9/11 era, they have this:

- OSCE not admitted as an international electoral observer to confirm or disprove it as free and fair elections under democratic standards.

- All opposition imprisoned, killed, or driven out of the country. Even marginal and bogus 'anti-war candidates' not admitted to the 'ballot'.

- Illegal, totally uncontrolled, and illegitimate 'voting' for Putin in a neighboring country's occupied zone that is almost as big as Greece in area.

- All non-loyal and non-state-aligned media completely eradicated.

- Absolutely zero ways to prevent and detect vote rigging of any scale.

And thus, of course, absolutely ridiculous and unrealistic 'early results', the North Korean style.

'Exit polls' say Putin 'wins' with 87%. In Moscow, with 70% of 'ballots' processed, Putin now 'gets' almost 89% (!!!).

Sure, sure.

Russia is a totalitarian dictatorship in which the Kremlin is not even trying to salve the appearances anymore. We could hardly expect anything, but them simply forging 90% for Putin.

The question here is: why the heck is Putin still not officially deemed an illegitimate and illegal usurper of power in Russia, given the abovementioned reasons, by normal, self-respecting democracies, particularly in the West?

...And of course, in occupied Ukraine, Putin 'gets' 95% in Donetsk Oblast, 94% in Luhansk Oblast, 93% in Zaporizhia Oblast, and 88% in Kherson Oblast.

Sure, sure...
--------------------------------------------

Michael McFaul McFaul | 3:09 AM · Mar 18, 2024:
{Stanford, frmr US ambassador to Russia}

Hey @Reuters, try harder. Putin did not “win” anything. The word win implies that there was a competition (like in a football match). That didn’t happen in Russia today. And “landslide”? That’s a positive word. What about “sham” , “stolen”, “Potemkin”?

Hey reporters & analysts, if you can’t independently verify Putins alleged percentage of the vote or the alleged turnout, aren’t you obligated to tell your readers so? Your only source for these numbers is the Russian government that notoriously lies all the time.

Quote
Reuters @Reuters | · 5h:
President Vladimir Putin won a record post-Soviet landslide in Russia's election, cementing his already tight grip on power in a victory he said showed Moscow had been right to stand up to the West and send its troops into Ukraine https://reut.rs/48TyTNC (2:49) https://www.youtube.com/user/ReutersVideo

--------------------------------------------

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 4:38 AM · Mar 18, 2024:

Putin was congratulated on his election victory by the leaders of Vatican, Venezuela, Nicaragua, North Korea, China, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Honduras and Cuba.

Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela was among the first to congratulate Putin on his election "triumph" and expressed his "deep commitment to democracy in Russia." Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega joined him in congratulating Putin. He also called the election victory a "triumph."

The Cuban government also congratulated Vladimir Putin on his victory in the Russian presidential election. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, Pope Francis, President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev, President of Tajikistan Emomali Rahmon, Prime Minister of Myanmar Min Aung Hlaing, President of Honduras Xiomara Castro, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian and former Bolivian president Evo Morales also joined in the congratulations.

A telling group...

Sytheruk (Ben) 🇬🇧 🇺🇦 @SythUK | 5:21 PM · Mar 18, 2024:
Pharmaceutical Microbiology- British 🇬🇧 -A Fella - Slava Ukraini! 💪🇺🇦

24 hours after signing a security agreement with Russia, Serbia's Vucic announces they will invade Kosovo at a time of their choosing.
0:29 ( https://twitter.com/SythUK/status/1769836587544617004 )

...Russia helped Hamas attack Israel in order to open a second conflict to divert weapons and money away from Ukraine.

Now, Russia seems to want to do the same with Kosovo. Open up another front and further strain NATO...
-------------------------------------

NATO's role in Kosovo
Last updated: 20 Nov. 2023 17:24
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_48818.htm

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 6:26 AM · Mar 22, 2024:
Peskov: Russia is in a state of war.

"Yes, it started like a special military operation but as soon as that group formed there, when the collective West became a participant of this on the side of Ukraine, it became a war for us," Peskov said in an interview to Argumenty i Fakty media.

He added that the territory of the four Ukrainian regions that Russia has partly or completely occupied (Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia regions) are considered "occupied by the Kyiv regime".

After Putin's "election victory", Russia is raising the stakes. Previously, Russias were forbidden to call the "special military operation" a "war". People were detained and fined for doing it. Now, Russia is in full swing war mode...

Photo Peskov ( https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1771121232420724761/photo/1 )
--------------------------------------------

Meanwhile, its treaties on behalf of Gaza ignored, the US doesn't send Ukraine resources, but requests mercy for Russia, oil prices being a weapon in US elections:

US urged Ukraine to halt strikes on Russian oil refineries
Christopher Miller, Ben Hall, Felicia Schwartz, and Myles McCormick | 22 March 2024

Washington told Kyiv that drone attacks risk driving up crude prices and provoking retaliation...

https://www.ft.com/content/98f15b60-bc4d-4d3c-9e57-cbdde122ac0c
--------------------------------------------

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 7:59 AM · Mar 22, 2024:

...The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine responded to the article {US: halt strikes on Ru oil refineries}. "We understand the calls of American partners. At the same time, we are fighting with the capabilities, resources and practices that we have today. There are also statements by other officials that these are absolutely legitimate targets from a military point of view," Deputy Prime Minister Olga Stefanishyna said at the Kyiv Security Forum.

She said that Ukraine had responded to such calls by "achieving its goals" and "very successful operations" on Russian territory.

Stefanishyna also said that in the first month of the Russian invasion, she spoke to NATO headquarters and was told that it was in the Alliance's standards to first destroy the infrastructure on Russian territory that makes it possible to bomb Ukrainian cities.

"We are acting in accordance with the best NATO standards," the deputy prime minister said.

Was the simultaneous release of this article and one of the strongest strikes on the Ukrainian energy sector during the full-scale war a coincidence?
Such a strike takes a long time to prepare.
Such articles are not written in one day.

I can repeat after @StefanishynaO: we are acting in accordance with NATO standards.

Ukraine has the right to self-defense and confrontation. Ukrainians have the right to live, after all.

https://ft.com/content/98f15b60-bc4d-4d3c-9e57-cbdde122ac0c

Igor Sushko @igorsushko | 3:57 PM · Mar 21, 2024:
Born in Ukraine. American. @WindofChangeRG Racecar Driver (Ret.)...

🚨 Russia is now mass producing FAB-3000kg bombs in Nizhny Novgorod. That's 6,600 lbs. Ukraine must be equipped with weapons to quickly destroy such factories on Russian soil. That's what would in a rational world.
2:31 (https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1770902586058735743)
--------------------------------------

Jay in Kyiv @JayinKyiv | 12:14 PM · Mar 21, 2024:
American in Ukraine

While the West is busy telling Putin what they WONT do, Russia has just started mass production of 3000kg guided bombs that are sufficient to obliterate any European city.

The western world just has no idea what the fuck is happening

2:17 (https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1770846533069541444)
From АSLAN

Jay in Kyiv @JayinKyiv | 4:12 AM · Mar 22, 2024:
American in Ukraine

What we are about to see in Ukraine will be one of the greatest losses of human life since WW2.

This morning's air defense report confirms there are no longer sufficient air defenses to protect the country. The faster missles are all striking their targets.

- 0 out of 12 Iskander-M ballistic missiles.

- 0 out of 7 Kh-47M2 "Kinzhal" aeroballistic missiles.

- 0 out of 5 Kh-22 cruise missiles.

- 35 out of 40 Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles.

- 2 out of 2 Kh-59 guided air missiles.

- 0 of 22 S-300/S-400 anti-aircraft guided missiles.

- 55 out of 63 "Shahed-136/131" attack UAVs.

What we are about to see in Ukraine will be one of the greatest losses of human life since WW2.

https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1771087479468175546
------------------------------------------

Jay in Kyiv @JayinKyiv | 3:47 AM · Mar 22, 2024:

Russia spent about $700,000,000 launching missiles at Ukraine last night.

Saving thousands of lives, this is what our air defense systems managed to destroy.
Image ( https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1771081172136649176/photo/1 )

Barry van der Tas @Eikbosserweg
700mln? I find this hard to believe.

Jay in Kyiv @JayinKyiv
Each kinzhal alone is $10m. Others vary.
We shot down only about 70% last night.

Tymofiy Mylovanov @Mylovanov | 7:01 AM · Mar 23, 2024:
President, Kyiv School of Economics; Minister of economy, Ukraine, 2019-2020; Associate professor, University of Pittsburgh
https://twitter.com/Mylovanov/status/1771492547606577262
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1771492547606577262.html

Putin might not have a choice but to blame Ukraine for the terrorist attack in Moscow. He might not be successful, though, because the facts point to Islamic radicals.
This is why:
1. The Russian law enforcement’ve shown suspects 1/
0:14 (https://twitter.com/Mylovanov/status/1771492547606577262) From NEXTA

They claim one of them is from Tajikistan. None of them are Ukrainians or have lived in Ukraine
Ukraine has explicitly denied involvement in the attack and ISIS has claimed responsibility. 2/

US officials have told media that the claim of responsibility by the Islamic State appears to be credible.
Three days before the attack the U.S. warned Russia about a possibility. Putin dismissed the warning as “blackmail” 3/
Photo empty Ru podium (https://twitter.com/Mylovanov/status/1771492562534043926/photo/1)

If it is true that ISIS is behind the attack, Putin must respond in force. Otherwise he looks weak. But he despot have the capability to execute any meaningful action against ISIS. In part because he is stuck in Ukraine. 4/

So, there are two options for him
1. Pull out of Ukraine and focus on ISIS.
2. Ignore ISIS and continue to focus on Ukraine
Either one is bad, but he seems to start building a context to blame Ukraine 5/

Exhibit 1. Russia state media TASS states: The "Crocus City Hall" terrorist tried to escape in the direction of the Russian-Ukrainian border. reports the Central Office of the FSB. They were planning to cross the border and had contacts on the Ukrainian side 6/
Text Ru (https://twitter.com/Mylovanov/status/1771492574605271356/photo/1)

Exhibit 2. Head of Russia's Defense Committee:
"Ukraine and its patrons are the main stakeholders in the terrorist attack on Moscow's concert hall. If the information about Ukraine's involvement in the terrorist attack is confirmed, there should be … ."
Source: Sputnik https://x.com/MarioNawfal/st

But regardless of what Putin decides and who he blames the ISIS problem in Russia won’t go away. And Putin is unable to deal with it. 8/

His security apparatus is trained to prevent and suppress democratic protests by civilians, not terrorist attacks. FSB and Rosgvardiya clearly failed to respond to the attack properly. 9/
Text Engl (https://twitter.com/Mylovanov/status/1771492587095883996/photo/1)

It might be the beginning of the end for Putin. Once people and his thugs understand that he is weak, he will lose power. Because his power is based on strength and his ability to deliver security to Russian people. It is a trade of secondary and human rights for security 10/

Once Putin can’t deliver on security, the social contract is broken. Russia is brutal and power changes hands, just not in a democratic way.

Putin’s has made a horrible strategic mistake by invading Ukraine. And now he is committed to doubling down no matter what 11/

This strategy has only one end game - he is out of power and Russia weakened and isolated. 12X
------------------------------------------

Marion Van Renterghem @MarionVanR
How did that neat video come out of the blue ??
Quote
Ragıp Soylu @ragipsoylu
Here is the video with English subtitles
3:02 (https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1771499538122989586)

>112 margd: contd. Here we go... :(

WarTranslated (Dmitri) @wartranslated | 8:43 AM · Mar 23, 2024:
Estonian-born blogger

Putin accuses Ukraine of preparing an escape route for the terrorists that attacked the Crocus City Hall in the Moscow region last night.
0:25 (https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1771518223424377137)
___________________________________

OSINTdefender @sentdefender | 10:19 AM · Mar 23, 2024:
Open Source Intelligence Monitor focused on Europe and Conflicts across the World.

ISIS has now released an additional Statement in which they claim Responsibility for the Terrorist Attack last night against the Crocus Concert Hall in the Russian Capital of Moscow; while also Posting a Picture of the Attackers only minutes before the Shooting began, in which you can clearly see the same Outfits on several of the Terrorists that were Arrested by Russian Security Forces in the Bryansk Region earlier today.

Photos ( https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1771542281436254682/photo/1 )

If/when Russians are successfu in blowing hole in that dam, hundreds of square miles of land will be flooded...

DW News @dwnews | 11:34 AM · Mar 23, 2024:
This is the moment a Russian missile hit Ukraine's largest dam south of the city of Dnipro:
0:48 (https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1771561280614039952)

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | Last edited 4:31 PM · Mar 23, 2024
Explosions in Sevastopol. Air raid sirens are sounding in the city.

The Kerch Bridge has been closed for traffic.

"Several aerial targets were shot down in Sevastopol," the so-called "governor" Razvozhayev said.

Crimean Telegram channels report hits in the headquarters of 810th Naval Infantry Brigade.

Local media also report hits on ships in Sevastopol.

No official information at the moment.

Photos smoke
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1771635806974709802/photo/1
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1771635806974709802/photo/2

0:43 ( https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1771635806974709802/video/3 )
-----------------------------------------------

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 4:39 AM · Mar 24, 2024:
Officially confirmed!

In Sevastopol, the Ukrainian Defense Forces successfully hit the large landing ships Yamal and Azov, a communications center and several infrastructure facilities of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, the General Staff reported.

OSINTtechnical reports that at least three Storm Shadow missiles hit the main communications center of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

According to the OSINTtechnical project, military units of missile gunners and FSB are also located there.

Last night, the most massive attack "for the entire time of the SMO" was carried out on Sevastopol, official Russian channels wrote.

According to the occupation authorities of the peninsula, allegedly "the air defense system shot down several dozen missiles, including British Storm Shadow missiles, on their approach to the city."

The occupiers confirm that the main communications center of the Russian Black Sea Fleet was the target of the attack.

According to Russian media, 34 military personnel were killed, 40 wounded, and three Su-27 airplanes were damaged at the Belbek airfield.

Photos ships
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1771817606346936609/photo/1
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1771817606346936609/photo/2

>113 margd: contd.

OSINTdefender @sentdefender | 6:30 PM · Mar 23, 2024
Open Source Intelligence Monitor focused on Europe and Conflicts across the World

Al-Amaq, a Media Outlet linked to ISIS has released several Minutes of Footage which was Filmed by the 4 Tajik Terrorists during last night’s Terrorist Attack on the Crocus Concert Hall in the Russian Capital of Moscow; due to the Graphic Nature of the Footage I will not be able to Post a Majority of it on X, however in the Video you can see several Individuals being Point-Blank Shot by the Terrorists as well as at least 1 of the Victims having their Throat Slit all while they continue to Shout, “Allahu Akbar” and Extremist Islamic Quotes regarding Christians.

0:42 (https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1771665904868237690/video/1)

Photos
https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1771665904868237690/photo/2
https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1771665904868237690/photo/3

"Romania joined the North Atlantic Treaty Organization on March 29, 2004" (Wikipedia)

Daractenus @Daractenus | 6:29 AM · Mar 24, 2024:
Mostly tweeting about the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Lavrov: “Moldova follows in Ukraine's footsteps"
Romania: "Hold my țuică!"

"Romania has massed troops at the border that can intervene very quickly. We will militarily defend Moldova in case of a Russian attack!"

The statement was by the Vice-Rector of the National Academy of Intelligence, a "former" officer in the Romanian Intelligence Service.

Photo ( 6:29 AM · Mar 24, 2024 )

This is most likely a first Romanian attempt at "strategic ambiguity", remains to be seen if more is to follow (including from decision making individuals).
Whatever makes the Russians pause and think twice is more than welcome.

Around 30% of the {Moldovan} population has Romanian citizenship (including the president and most of the current political leadership).

{Source} Ziar din Republica Moldova, declaratia e facuta la conferinta SSWP&FSPUB de acum 3 zile.
Translated from Romanian by Google: Newspaper from the Republic of Moldova, the statement was made at the SSWP&FSPUB conference 3 days ago.
Text Romanian {https://twitter.com/Daractenus/status/1771850853965496382/photo/1}

I'll spare gentle readers the photo published elsewhere of alleged terrorist laying on his side on what appears to be basketball court, his pants down and a wire running from genital area to a shoebox-sized (electrical) box--but I'm sure alleged terrorist implicated Ukraine if that's what Putin wishes. Apparently Russia turned down assistance of US in investigating--you think they would grab opportunity to gain insights on US sources, methods?

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 8:30 AM · Mar 25, 2024:
On Saturday, Russian media published footage of detaining the alleged terrorists who committed the terrorist act in Crocus City Hall (or the people appointed to be terrorists). On Sunday evening, a trial of them was also shown in Russian media (they were all arrested and will remain in prison until the court hearing in May).

The footage contained a lot of violence (an ear cut off - and showing off the knife that did that, an eye taken out, beatings, tortures by electrocuting). In court, the accused looked like they were tortured.

This was done deliberately. Reasons:

◾️ To show Russian society that punishment for those who commit acts of terror will be tough and horrible. With all the obvious inconsistencies in how the authorities handled the accident, they needed to demonstrate that they are still strong and punish evil.

◾️There was lot of uncertainty about the situation and whether the detained actually committed the crime, and that the act of terror was not prevented despite the warnings about its possibility, and the delays and unprofessionalism of Russian law enforcers. So the tortures are intended to show an average Russian that no one is safe in their country.

◾️ To demonstrate future potential terrorists what their fate would be. In reality, that would simply increase costs for future potential organizers and would probably trigger a desire for revenge.

◾️ To once more open up discussions about the moratorium on death penalty (something Russian propagandist Solovyev has been discussing for years and longs for).

◾️To remind the average Russians that the Russian state is quite barbaric in its essence and now citizens cannot pretend they had no clue. Moreover, a large part of Russians approved of these scenes of torture.

◾️And one more thing: the usual level of violence in Russia is quite high. Home abuse is basically legalized, there is a lot of violence towards women, children, animals etc.) So in order to show the special services working effectively, the level of violence had to be very high - tortures instead of usual beatings.

Also, note that nothing has been said or done about changes to prevent such things from happening in the future. This legitimizes what happened.

❗️And it's impossible to even imagine what is going on in Russia-occupied Ukrainian territories. That is where main Russian torturers have moved. We already know a lot about the horrible tortures of Ukrainian prisoners and soldiers, this has been documented, there are witnesses and accounts. Russian law enforcers and abusers make these videos and publish them online themselves - for fear or amusement.

All of this is coming out to the public area. It is not condemned by neither the authorities nor Russian society. It will obviously unravel further. What will it lead to in a multi-million nuclear state? Where will this hatred, fear and desire for violence be channeled? Unfortunately, the answers are obvious.

Photos of abused alleged terrorists:
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1772239647097151762/photo/1
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1772239647097151762/photo/2
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1772239647097151762/photo/3
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1772239647097151762/photo/4

Quote
Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 7:04 AM · Mar 25, 2024:
A terrorist attack in Russian Crocus City Hall: Peskov commented on the failure of special services, torture of detainees and ISIS statement

Putin's speaker said nothing new, blaming everything on the West.

Peskov evaded answering the question about where the special services were and why such a terrorist attack was even possible. He called the accusations "hysterical and provocative" and put all the blame on foreign countries that do not cooperate with Russia.

He left unanswered the journalists' question about the injuries of those accused in the terrorist attack in Crocus City Hall. "No, I leave this question without an answer," he said.

Peskov did not comment on the alleged connection of terrorists with ISIS and suggested "to be guided by the information that comes from law enforcement agencies."

It is known that law enforcers arrived at the site of the terrorist attack in Crocus City Hall an hour after the first reports of gunfire. There are many questions about how only four people, according to the FSB version, were able to completely seize the building.

0:37 Putin spokesman Peskov, Russian w English subtitles ( https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1772218030514114978 )

Russia’s weaponising of sexual violence, and Ukraine’s response, reveals a grim war of values

Atrocities are Russia’s means of warfare. Since the beginning of its aggression against Ukraine in 2014, the Kremlin has weaponised actions that are internationally considered as crimes, including sexual violence. With the all-out invasion in 2022, Russia’s sexual violence has expanded in its prevalence and gravity. It makes for difficult reading, but the extent of documented crimes includes rapes; gang rapes; sexual slavery; beating and mutilation of genitalia; castration; threats of rape and forcing family members to witness abuse of their loved ones. Sexual violence is common in war. But these are not only isolated battlefield incidents. Russia has allowed toxic gender hierarchies to become the norm within its borders, and allowed more brutal expressions to flourish on the frontlines of its war. This begins at the top... It is easy to see how this creates a permissive environment for sexual violence in times of war. At the same time, Russia pardons rapists in return for joining the war against Ukraine... According to the UN Commission of Inquiry on Ukraine, Russian servicemen perpetrate sexual violence “at gunpoint, with extreme brutality”, with torture and summary killings. Victims include girls and boys, women and men, aged from age four to 80. Civilian women and girls are largely targeted in occupation. In detention, victims are civilians and PoWs, mostly men. The perpetrators do not spare pregnant women...

Russia lauding torture was unthinkable – now it is proud to do so

There was no attempt to hide the evidence of torture. In fact, its perpetrators – serving officers in the Russian military and intelligence services – may have already received state awards for bravery. By the time the men accused of murdering 137 people at a concert on Friday night appeared in court in Moscow on Sunday, their faces were swollen and disfigured, their eyes vacant. One, named as Saidakrami Murodali Rachabalizoda, arrived with gauze over his ear. A video released online showed one of his captors, who appeared to be Russian military personnel, slicing off his ear and shoving it in his mouth, telling him to eat it. Others beat him with their rifle butts. After his arrest, Shamsidin Fariduni appeared in a photo lying on the floor of a school gym, his pants pulled down around his knees and with wires connected his genital area... But the promotion of the suspects’ brutal treatment by law enforcement and high-ranking Russian officials after their capture has surprised even seasoned observers of the Russian security services. After two years of war in Ukraine, videos of death and torture have become commonplace in Russia. And methods of torture once only spoken about in witness testimonials are now being promoted online by the perpetrators themselves as they publish photos and videos of brutality for bragging rights. Human rights researchers said that it was no revelation that Russian security services employ torture against terror suspects... “What is different now is the clear demonstrative nature of the torture,” said Tanya Lokshina, the Europe and central Asia associate director at Human Rights Watch. “The footage of the torture seems to be shared not by accident, but in order to warn others who are planning attacks on Russia that they will face the same consequences. The Russian authorities are no longer shy about showing that its security services torture people. There are no window dressing exercises any more. Such videos show the level to which violence has become normalised in Russia over the past two years of war; previously, there were widespread allegations of systematic torture by Russian law enforcement, but it would have been unthinkable for them to proudly publicise the video evidence”...

Both from the Guardian.

Crooke's take on Crocus City Hall (first segment after ad reel) is invaluable.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0uy6KVHRB30

🚨 Russia: Yesterday Vladimir Osechkin {https://twitter.com/Vlad_Osechkin?} relayed info from FSB sources that an order for indiscriminate mass raids and repressions against Muslims came down in 'response' to the Crocus City Hall massacre. Today, the FSB made mass arrests at the Wildberries warehouse in Electrostal.
0:43 (https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1773017329460252790)

-Igor Sushko @igorsushko | 12:00 PM · Mar 27, 2024
Born in Ukraine. American. @WindofChangeRG Racecar Driver (Ret.)

https://metro.co.uk/2024/03/29/nato-warplanes-scrambled-putin-strikes-ukraines-p...
Polish PM warns ‘we are in pre-war era’ as Putin’s missiles fire close to border

Unprecedented GPS jamming attack affects 1600 aircraft over Europe
Jeremy Hsu on March 29, 2024

A 63-hour-long marathon of GPS jamming attacks disrupted global satellite navigation systems for hundreds of aircraft flying through the Baltic region – and Russia is thought to be responsible...

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1nZLIh9Dw_vBmQpkHjHdOdQplUE7Av1dV/edit

Ambassador Bridget A. Brink @USAmbKyiv | 10:46 PM · Mar 30, 2024:
5:30 a.m. Sunday morning, the third air raid alert of the night, the whole country called to bunker with Russia launching missiles all over Ukraine.
-----------------------------------------

Anne Applebaum @anneapplebaum | 2:49 AM · Mar 31, 2024:
@TheAtlantic and @SNFAgoraJHU. Author of Gulag, Iron Curtain, Red Famine, Twilight of Democracy.

Easter morning

For those who keep noting that this isn't Orthodox Easter....it is Easter for the large numbers of Ukrainian Catholics. More to the point, it is Easter for @SpeakerJohnson who is personally responsible for Ukraine's lack of air defense ammunition.
____________________________

margd: It's Easter in Gaza, too, for most Palestinian Christians...

Maria Avdeeva @maria_avdv | 2:45 AM · Mar 29, 2024:
Security expert covering invasion from day one. Countering Russian disinformation since 2014 🇺🇦

Russia massively attacked Ukrainian energy facilities. At least three power plants were damaged. Dnipro, Poltava, and Cherkasy regions were targeted. Explosions were also reported in Khmelnytsky, Lviv, and Ivano-Frankivsk regions

Air raid map of Ukraine ( https://twitter.com/maria_avdv/status/1773602278391304499 )

Russia demands extradition of Ukraine intelligence chief
DW | 31 March 2024

Russia's...foreign ministry said it has called on Ukraine to "immediately arrest and extradite" several people including the head of the SBU secret service, Vasil Malyuk.

It said Malyuk had admitted to "organizing the bombing of the Crimean Bridge in October 2022" and "revealed details of the organization of other terrorist attacks in Russia."

In its statement, the Russian Foreign Ministry reiterated its claim that the mass shooting attack at a concert hall on the outskirts of Moscow in late March was linked to Ukraine. An affiliate of the so-called "Islamic State" claimed responsibility for the attack that killed at least 140 people...

https://www.dw.com/en/russia-demands-extradition-of-ukraine-intelligence-chief/a...

Russian nexus revealed during 60 Minutes Havana Syndrome investigation into potential attacks on U.S. officials
60-minutes-overtime

Scott Pelley , Aliza Chasan , Oriana Zill de Granados, Michael Rey, Emily Gordon, Kit Ramgopal, Jamie Woods | Updated on: March 31, 2024

...A 2023 government report deemed it "very unlikely" that a foreign adversary was behind the mysterious brain injuries suffered by U.S. national security officials, yet more than 100 Americans have symptoms scientists say could be caused by a beam of microwaves or acoustic ultrasound. Victims are frustrated that the government publicly doubts an adversary is targeting Americans. The ongoing, five-year 60 Minutes investigation has now uncovered new evidence pointing toward Russia.

Are we being attacked?
The investigation into Kovalev
Russian intelligence unit 29155
Has there been a cover-up?
Statements from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, the White House, and the FBI

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/havana-syndrome-russia-evidence-60-minutes/

Russia appears to have possibly just Tested an Intercontinental-Ballistic Missile off its Eastern Coast from the Kura Missile Test Range in the Northern Kamchatka Krai Region; 2 U.S. Air Force RC-135S “Cobra Ball” Ballistic Missile Tracking Aircraft as well as their Aerial-Refueling Tankers have also just been launched from Elmendorf Air Force Base in Alaska and are heading Southwest towards the Launch.

- OSINTdefender @sentdefender | Last edited 1:11 AM · Apr 3, 2024:
Open Source Intelligence Monitor focused on Europe and Conflicts across the World.
-----------------------------------------------

Thenewarea51 @thenewarea51 | 12:53 AM · Apr 3, 2024:
...Kura Missile Test Range on the Kamchatka Peninsula has gone hot per NOTAM issued by Magadan FIR (UHMM)
Map ( https://twitter.com/thenewarea51/status/1775386198241886522/photo/1 )

Jake Tapper @jaketapper | 1:33 PM · Apr 7, 2024:
Proudly represent the 10th District of Ohio. Montgomery, Greene and Clark Counties | Chairman of @HouseIntel & Member of @HASCRepublicans & @GOPoversight

.@RepMikeTurner tells me it's "absolutely true" that Russian propaganda has "infected" a portion of the GOP base, calling out "anti-Ukraine and pro-Russia messages, some of which we even hear being uttered on the House floor."

https://nypost.com/2024/04/07/us-news/massive-container-ship-loses-power-near-ny...
https://abc7chicago.com/verrazzano-narrows-bridge-new-york-apl-qingdao-cargo-shi...

How interesting.
ETA:
Probably less interesting.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=de21JU3iyb0

With US congress now paralyzed from preventing any of Russia's actions, FBI Director Wray confirms Russians are not only attacking US critical infrastructure such as cutting undersea cables, but doing reconnaissance on the US energy sector.

0:35 (https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1777908167151640738)

- Jay in Kyiv @JayinKyiv | 11:55 PM · Apr 9, 2024

Republicans against Trump @RpsAgainstTrump | 7:06 AM · Apr 11, 2024:

NEW
Russia has completely destroyed the Trypilska Thermal Power Plant in Kyiv. Due to Speaker Mike Johnson's refusal to bring the Ukraine aid bill for a vote, Ukraine doesn't have the capacity to shoot down Russian missiles and drones.
Shame on you, @SpeakerJohnson

0:23 ( https://twitter.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1778379183543980365 )

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 7:56 AM · Apr 12, 2024:

Lukashenko said that Ukraine and the West should start negotiations with Russia.

"Today is the moment, first of all for the Ukrainians, to sit down at the negotiatiating table and finally come to an agreement," Lukashenko said.

Why today?
(0:55) https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1778753969092800754
____________________________________

Mike Johnson to meet with Trump at Mar-a-Lago amid threat to speakership
Kathryn Watson | April 12, 2024

...GOP Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia...has threatened to force a vote to oust Johnson over government spending and aid to Ukraine, although no other House Republicans have signed on to the effort...

Johnson and Trump are set to deliver remarks Friday afternoon from Mar-a-Lago about "election integrity."

...Back in Washington, Greene has not said when she might force a vote on Johnson's removal. Her opposition comes as Johnson faces mounting pressure to call a vote on approving more aid for Ukraine, something Greene strongly opposes. Greene renewed her threat in a letter this week.

Johnson told the Christian Broadcasting Network earlier this week that ... a stalemate in Congress is counterproductive to the Republican Party and Trump's chances in 2024. The House ground to a halt for weeks after McCarthy's ouster in the fall.

"We've got to demonstrate the American people that we can keep the train on the tracks," he told CBN. "And so pulling a motion to vacate, removing the speaker right now is exactly the opposite of what we need to show the country. We can't close the Congress down, because that's what will happen. They will blame us. And so it would hurt our chances of growing the majority, or our party or President Trump's chances for his election because all of our fates in, in some sense, are tied together."...

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-mike-johnson-mar-a-lago-meeting-press-confere...

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 10:56 AM · Apr 12, 2024:
DPhil/PhD Intl Relations @UniofOxford Assoc Fellow @RUSI_org
Author "Russia in Africa" & "Putin's War on Ukraine"

BREAKING: Dozens of Russian military instructors arrive in Niger

Russia's military cooperation agreement with Niger is intensifying and it is being paired with training in the use of Russian air defence systems

The deployment of air defence systems likely reflects Niger junta's concerns about an ECOWAS intervention not terrorism concerns

The Tillabery region near the border with Mali is a hotspot for terrorism in Niger

The next step could be cross-border military operations or given the fact that Russian has troops streaming into Burkina Faso, possible operations in the Mali-Burkina Faso-Niger tri-border area

An overview of what we known about Russia's military arrival in Niger:

Russian troops arrive in Niger as military agreement begins
Kathryn Armstrong & Chris Ewokor | 12 April 2024
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-68796359

John Mearsheimer gets it right on Ukraine and Gaza; but should his “Realism” be guiding America’s strategic direction?
https://grahamefuller.com/john-mearsheimer-gets-it-right-on-ukraine-and-gaza-but...

5 April 2024

Graham E. Fuller

Graham Fuller is a longtime CIA operations officer, who subsequently headed up CIA’s National Intelligence Council for Long Range Strategic Forecasting, later served as an analyst in International Relations over a decade at the RAND Corporation. He speaks numerous languages of the the region including Russian, Turkish and Arabic.

I pen this “attack” on John Mearsheimer, Chicago’s dean of Political Science, as a long time admirer of his. My critique is not based on his superb and insightful situational analyses of Ukraine and Gaza but rather on his potentially dangerous self-described”Realist” school of foreign policy analysis and its future implications.

John’s brilliant and imaginative work over the years offers us a profound contradiction. Perhaps the unkindest remark one might make about that work is that he has been remarkably right on major critical events – but for the wrong reasons. John’s spot-on foreign policy analysis is so good precisely because it stems not from his theories on international relations but rather from his innate personal feel for key global events.

John’s penetrating and accurate commentaries on Ukraine and Gaza mark him out as one of a small handful of courageous, perceptive and outspoken analysts examining the deep flaws in American strategic thinking in the realities of Russian, Ukrainian and Israeli geopolitical actions. He is joined by small group of other fine observers who include Alastair Crooke, Scott Ritter, Anatol Lieven, Douglas MacGregor, Moon over Alabama, John Mercouris (sic, Alexander Mercouris?), and other analysts who, for their sins of accurate analysis, have been systematically stricken from the the mainstream media. Their views clearly represent an affront to Washington’s dismayingly effective efforts to shape and dominate the West’s entire narrative about Ukraine. (I should add that I too have closely associated myself with their views over the last decade.)

John and others have been spot on in their critique of the foolish enterprise of America’s fervid ideologically-driven drive to expand NATO right up to the very gates of Russia in a grand effort to bring Russia to its knees. That drive has now patently failed, although Washington itself is far from making any such admission–yet.

This is not the place for a complex discussion of diverse longtime schools of international relations. Yet there is one approach John nominally represents–the “Realist” school. Realists tend to write primarily from abstract and theoretical positions about power relationships. They seem in my view largely innocent of, or uncomfortable with, the role that political culture and history play in the world arena. This critique here is hardly new— but there are increasingly dangerous implications for these theories as we move towards deeper great power confrontation.

In perhaps an oversimplification of the basic theoretical views of Realism they appear highly “mechanistic” in their view of the international arena. Mearsheimer’s and other writings in the so-called “Realist” school seem to portray actors on the international scene as little more than random uneven billiard balls on a billiard table. Very little distinguishes them from each other except for perhaps size. There is little room for the messinesses of cultural analysis based on study of the cultural, historical and psychological character of the players and peoples involved.

Yet in my own thinking, good long term analysis of International affairs involves heavy emphasis on the nature of the political and cultural character of the players – in which historical experience, languages and cultures–even myth– are key analytical ingredients. Of course in any analysis of the political culture of other states, strong elements of the subjective inevitably creep in. After all, history can be read in many different ways and it can be bent to the particular geopolitical goals the writer seeks. But regardless of what body of school of thought analysts emerge from, the bottom line is some analysts are more deeply perceptive and accurate than others. The same can be said of Меаrsheimer himself – that it is not his theories but his deep skills of geopolitical perception that have proven him to be so correct on critical international issues – particularly in more recent times.

...

The world owes much to the creative – and evolving – character of Mearsheimer’s contributions to international relations theory. John has been indisputably right on the critical issues of recent times on Ukraine and Gaza. Hopefully his thoughtful and important analyses will continue to take precedence over his vaguer and possibly more dangerous theories on the inevitability of great power conflict. A little deeper analysis of the nature of our competitors – based on cultural and yes, even empathetic insight into their own positions and fears might help spare us this kind of confrontation.

Ukraine could face defeat in 2024. Here's how that might look (BBC)

The former commander of the UK's Joint Forces Command has warned that Ukraine could face defeat by Russia in 2024. General Sir Richard Barrons has told the BBC there is "a serious risk" of Ukraine losing the war this year. The reason, he says, is "because Ukraine may come to feel it can't win". "And when it gets to that point, why will people want to fight and die any longer, just to defend the indefensible?" Ukraine is not yet at that point. But its forces are running critically low on ammunition, troops and air defences. Its much-heralded counter-offensive last year failed to dislodge the Russians from ground they had seized and now Moscow is gearing up for a summer offensive... "The shape of the Russian offensive that's going to come is pretty clear," says Gen Barrons. "We are seeing Russia batter away at the front line, employing a five-to-one advantage in artillery, ammunition, and a surplus of people reinforced by the use of newish weapons"... "At some point this summer," says Gen Barrons, "we expect to see a major Russian offensive, with the intent of doing more than smash forward with small gains to perhaps try and break through the Ukrainian lines. "And if that happens we would run the risk of Russian forces breaking through and then exploiting into areas of Ukraine where the Ukrainian armed forces cannot stop them." But where? Last year the Russians knew exactly where Ukraine was likely to attack... Now the boot is on the other foot as Russia masses its troops and keeps Kyiv guessing where it is going to attack next..."It's a very long front line and the Ukrainians need to be able to defend all of it." Which, of course, they cannot. "The Ukrainian military will lose ground," says Dr Watling. "The question is: how much and which population centres are going to be affected?"... Mass matters. The Russian army's tactics, leadership and equipment may be inferior to Ukraine's, but it has such superiority in numbers, especially artillery, that if it does nothing else this year, its default option will be to keep pushing Ukraine's forces back in a westward direction, taking village after village... Russia's strategic objective this year may not even be territorial. It could simply be to crush Ukraine's fighting spirit and convince its Western backers that this war is a lost cause... One thing is certain: Russia's President Vladimir Putin has no intention of giving up on his assault on Ukraine...

>136 John5918: "One thing is certain: Russia's President Vladimir Putin has no intention of giving up on his assault on Ukraine..."

That's for sure. So, in addition to NATO $ for defense,

loss of so many more soldiers than in Afghanistan (which crashed the Soviet Union) +

Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian infrastructure/supply chains, navy, etc. +

Putin's prioritization of war over domestic investment = plane crashes, heat loss, and most recently, dam burst, etc.

may be needed to bring down terrorist government of aging Vladimir Putin, whose overreach extends into Africa as well as Europe, at expense of his own people.

A Russian pacifist helped Ukrainians flee the country. Then the Kremlin caught him (Guardian)

Alexander Demidenko, who guided refugees back to their homeland, was arrested and tortured by Kremlin forces. One of the many he helped recalls his courage and kindness... Demidenko died last Friday in pre-detention custody in Belgorod where he had spent six months awaiting trial on charges of illegal gun possession, which his family and friends say were politically motivated as retribution for his volunteer efforts... On the day of the invasion, Demidenko staged a one-man protest in central Belgorod against the war. Soon after, the couple decided that they would aid Ukrainian refugees. “And we never doubted the decision once,” said Vishnevskaya...

America’s moment of truth on Ukraine
Edward Luce | 10 April 2024

Republicans have a stark choice: help Zelenskyy or pay fealty to Trump

...In the coming days, Johnson will submit what will surely be Congress’s final chance this year to bolster a faltering Ukraine. In addition to tougher border security measures that some Democrats will see as a poison pill, his package will divert interest from Russia’s sequestered assets and define part of the Ukraine aid as a loan. Neither gimmick is likely to sway Greene. Her aim is to stop any help from reaching Ukraine, not to help it in a fiscally responsible way. Johnson’s hope is to supply Ukraine without being branded a Maga traitor. In reality, he faces a simple choice; help Zelenskyy or please Trump. It is impossible to do both.

https://www.ft.com/content/98f37cee-aaf6-47c5-b032-bde2968e00f0

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 2:36 PM · Apr 13, 2024:

Feng Yujun, one of the China's leading Russianists and a professor at Peking University: Russia is sure to lose in Ukraine – The Economist

Four reasons why Russian Federation will lose to Ukraine, according to Feng Yujun:

🔹 The first is the level of resistance and national unity shown by Ukrainians, which has until now been extraordinary.

🔹 The second is international support for Ukraine, which, though recently falling short of the country’s expectations, remains broad.

🔹 The third factor is the nature of modern warfare, a contest that turns on a combination of industrial might and command, control, communications and intelligence systems. One reason Russia has struggled in this war is that it is yet to recover from the dramatic deindustrialisation it suffered after the disintegration of the Soviet Union.

🔹 The final factor is information. When it comes to decision-making, Vladimir Putin is trapped in an information cocoon, thanks to his having been in power so long. The Russian president and his national-security team lack access to accurate intelligence. The system they operate lacks an efficient mechanism for correcting errors. Their Ukrainian counterparts are more flexible and effective.

His conclusion is as follows:

🔸 Russia will be forced to withdraw from all occupied Ukrainian territories, including Crimea.

🔸 Russia's nuclear capability is no guarantee of success. Feng Yujun gives the example of the United States, which left Vietnam, Korea, and Afghanistan with no less nuclear potential than the Russian Federation has today.

🔸 Kyiv has proven that Moscow is not invincible, so a ceasefire under the "Korean" scenario is ruled out.

🔸 The war is a turning-point for Russia. It has consigned Putin’s regime to broad international isolation. He has also had to deal with difficult domestic political undercurrents, from the rebellion by the mercenaries of the Wagner Group and other pockets of the military — for instance in Belgorod — to ethnic tensions in several Russian regions and the recent terrorist attack in Moscow. These show that political risk in Russia is very high. Mr Putin may recently have been re-elected, but he faces all kinds of possible black-swan events.

🔸 After the war, Ukraine will have the chance join both the EU and NATO, while Russia will lose its former Soviet republics because they see Putin's aggression there as a threat to their sovereignty and territorial integrity.

According to Feng Yujun, the war, meanwhile, has made Europe wake up to the enormous threat that Russia’s military aggression poses to the continent’s security and the international order, bringing post-cold-war EU-Russia detente to an end. Many European countries have given up their illusions about Mr Putin’s Russia.

Source:
By Invitation | A Chinese view of Russia
Russia is sure to lose in Ukraine, reckons a Chinese expert on Russia
Feng Yujun says the war has strained Sino-Russian relations
11 April 2024
https://economist.com/by-invitation/2024/04/11/russia-is-sure-to-lose-in-ukraine...
------------------------------------

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 2:58 AM · Apr 14, 2024:
And I'd like to share with you one more quote from the article that I thought was very interesting:

"China’s relations with Russia are not fixed, and they have been affected by the events of the past two years. Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, has just visited Beijing, where he and his Chinese counterpart once again emphasised the close ties between their countries. But the trip appears to have been more diplomatic effort by Russia to show it is not alone than genuine love-in. Shrewd observers note that China’s stance towards Russia has reverted from the “no limits” stance of early 2022, before the war, to the traditional principles of 'non-alignment, non-confrontation and non-targeting of third parties'."

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene🇺🇸 @RepMTG | 9:23 AM · Apr 17, 2024:

No money for Ukraine!!!
The American people demand a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia!!!
No more death, no more murder!!!
Defend America’s border!!!
---------------------------------------------

Johnson on why he’s willing to risk his job to send aid to Ukraine:

“Look, history judges us for what we do. this is a critical time right now… I can make a selfish decision and do something that is different but I'm doing here what I believe to be the right thing. … I think providing lethal aid to Ukraine right now is critically important. … I’m willing to take personal risk for that.”

1:26 ( https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1780848094843646322 )

- Reese Gorman @reesejgorman | 5:06 PM · Apr 17, 2024
------------------------------------------------

House’s Ukraine, Israel aid package gains Biden’s support as Speaker Johnson fights to keep his job
STEPHEN GROVES, LISA MASCARO and KEVIN FREKING | April 17, 2024
https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-aid-house-speaker-f08102e171dcac2d66d513980d8...
---------------------------------------------

Matthew Kroenig @MatthewKroenig | 10:06 PM · Apr 17, 2024:
VP & Sr. Director @ACScowcroft @AtlanticCouncil ; Prof Georgetown ; Columnist @ForeignPolicy ; Ex @DeptofDefense ; Author/editor of 8 books.

The House package introduced tonight would push the United States to have a clearer and tougher Russia/Ukraine strategy, including:
*Requires the administration to submit to Congress a clear strategy with specific goals and metrics.
· Requires the transfer of long-range ATACMS.
*Closes off waivers related to Russia energy sanctions and imposes secondary sanctions to cripple Putin’s ability to finance his aggression.
· Authorizes REPO Act to seize and utilize Russian frozen assets.

Michael McFaul {frmr US Ambassador to Ru} McFaul | 3:41 AM · Apr 18, 2024:

Inspirational crowds in #Georgia! Supporters of freedom in Georgia are gaining strength. #NotoRussianLaw.

Quote
Mtavari TV @MtavariChannel | 1:59 PM · Apr 17, 2024:
Breaking news and the most relevant events from Georgia.

Tbilisi 🇬🇪🇪🇺 #NotoRussianLaw
0:42 ( https://twitter.com/MtavariChannel/status/1780657255370592632 )
-----------------------------------------------

Netgazeti @netgazeti | 4:02 PM · Apr 17, 2024
News and analysis on Georgia, the Caucasus region, and beyond | Based in Tbilisi

Drone scenes from #NoToRussianLaw rally today, April 17, #Tbilisi, #Georgia.

1:00 ( https://twitter.com/netgazeti/status/1780688219740557519)
🎞️Copyrigt: @mautskebeli (Google translate fr (Georgian?): An online media platform that tries to bring the concerns and needs of various excluded social groups to the political agenda

As dumb as she is mean, apparently:

Marjorie Taylor-Greene's amendments to the foreign aid bills:

1. Members who vote for Ukraine aid must conscript in the Ukrainian Army

2. Israel aid will be used for the development of "space laser technology" on the Southern border

https://twitter.com/KareemRifai/status/1780754606944891242/photo/2

- Kareem Rifai 🌐 @KareemRifai | 8:25 PM · Apr 17, 2024

What Can We Learn from Our Forever War in Ukraine with Ambassador Chas Freeman (via Massachusetts Peace Action)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xgvM8BJI_Vo

Now on C-SPAN 1 { early aft, 4/20/2024}
House Passes Aid for Ukraine 311-112

The House debates and votes legislation providing aid to Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan. They also work on a package of national security measures including sanctions on Russia & Iran, & one to force China to divest from TikTok or the app will face a ban

https://www.c-span.org/networks/
----------------------------------------------

DW News @dwnews | 2:04 PM · Apr 20, 2024:
JUST IN: The US House Of Representatives approves $95 billion military aid packages for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan.
------------------------------------------------

The New York Times @nytimes · 4m
Breaking News: The House resoundingly approved $95 billion in aid for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan with bipartisan support. The Senate is expected to pass the legislation as early as Tuesday and send it to President Biden’s desk. https://nyti.ms/3QbDpjS
-----------------------------------------------

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 10:52 AM · Apr 20, 2024:
Pentagon arms will reach Ukraine in less than a week once aid bill clears Congress - The Washington Post

The Pentagon has a massive infusion of military aid for Ukraine “ready to go,” U.S. officials said. They also noted that the Defense Department initiated the assembly of this assistance package well before the coming votes in a bid to speed the process.

One official, on condition of anonymity, said that once the $95 billion foreign aid bill is signed into law, it will take less than a week for some of the weapons to reach the battlefield.

This package is almost certain to contain desperately needed ammunition for systems Ukrainian personnel rely on most, including 155mm shells used in NATO howitzers and munitions for medium-range rocket artillery.

It is also likely the Pentagon will provide Ukraine with a fresh tranche of air defense equipment and ammunition to defend against Russia's attacks on civilian infrastructure.

Source: https://washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/04/19/ukraine-us-weapons-house...

Russia funneling weapons through Libyan port, eying gateway to Africa
Tom Kington | Apr 19, 2024

Russian vessels have been unloading thousands of tons of military equipment in the eastern Libyan port of Tobruk this month after repeated visits by Russia’s deputy defense minister Yunus-Bek Yevkurov to Gen. Khalifa Haftar, the strongman running eastern Libya.

The shipments, arriving from the Russian-controlled port of Tartus in Syria, contain towed artillery, armored personnel carriers and rocket launchers according to video released by Libyan news site Fawasel Media.

The equipment may in part be used to sustain Russia’s growing military presence in eastern Libya, but are also likely destined for countries further south in Africa like Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso where Russia has ties to leaders of recent coups.

...“Eastern Libya is becoming a significant way station into Africa for Russia, and it comes after the U.S. seriously misplayed Haftar,” said Ben Fishman, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

“There has been an continuous U.S. attempt to engage with Haftar, rather than isolate him, but he has repeatedly defied our requests and UN requests and moved closer to Russia...Fishman said that Haftar had received Russian visits and made trips to Moscow while also holding meetings in Libya with Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf and U.S. special envoy Richard Norland...

https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2024/04/19/russia-funneling-weapons-th...

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 4:12 AM · Apr 23, 2024 {X Twitter}:

These are Russian Su-34 crews. They are dropping high-explosive aviation bombs with a universal planning and correction module on Ukraine's territory.

Mass production of three-ton FAB-3000 aerial bombs has begun in Russia, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense following the visit of minister Sergei Shoigu to the enterprises of the defense-industrial complex in Nizhny Novgorod region.

"Sergei Shoigu was reported that at the enterprise... mass production of FAB-3000 has been organized since February this year," the ministry said.

In February 2024, Shoigu said that according to the state defense order, the production of FAB-500 was "multiplied" and the production of FAB-1500 was doubled.

Russia have also expanded the range of artillery ammunition produced.

Production of modern artillery and aviation munitions has been increased five times compared to the previous year, according to the press service of the Russian Defense Ministry.

0:49 ( https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1782473043178119174 )
--------------------------------------------------

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 2:14 PM · Apr 22, 2024 {X}:

Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi, President Zelenskyy said that the Russian military leadership has set the task to take Chasiv Yar before May 9 (Victory Day in Russia).

By my assumptions, it is also about the date of May 7, which is the day of Putin's inauguration, and they need at least a small "victory" by the memorable date. Now, the Russian public channels often mention this date as the date of some special "event" that will allegedly hit Ukraine and its allies like a ton of bricks.

Therefore, the Russian Federation is concentrating its efforts on breaking through the defenses west of Bakhmut in order to reach the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal and capture Chasiv Yar. The Russian brigades in this direction have been reinforced with additional ammunition, drones, and electronic warfare equipment.

British intelligence believes that the Russian army is using the same tactics during the offensive at Chasiv Yar as it did during the capture of Avdiivka.

British intelligence agents refer to a report by the Khortytsia operational-strategic group that the enemy drops 20-30 aerial bombs a day in the area of Chasiv Yar.

There will be other "meat assaults," and Chasiv Yar will be turned into another Avdiivka.

0:30 (https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1782473043178119174)

Video from Avdiivka, shot from a helicopter.

This is what the Russians call "liberation". They are liberating our territories from life.

0:18 (https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1782473043178119174)

Awful cute babies, but O.M.G.:

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 1:58 AM · Apr 23, 2024 {X}:

Nothing to see here, just Russians dressing their babies as wounded soldiers in preparation for victory day (USSR victory in WW2, or the Great Patriotic War, as the Russian narrative calls it).

0:30 (https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1782650276316332524)

Russia vetoes UN vote on stopping arms race in outer space (BBC)

Russia has vetoed a resolution at the UN Security Council calling on all countries to prevent an arms race in outer space. The draft resolution, put forward by the US and Japan, sought to reaffirm a principle already set out in the 1967 Outer Space Treaty... Russia said it was "firmly committed" to the existing treaty. The draft, put forward on Wednesday, called on "all States, in particular those with major space capabilities, to contribute actively to the objective of the peaceful use of outer space and of the prevention of an arms race in outer space." It also called on countries to uphold the Outer Space Treaty, under which all parties agreed "not to place in orbit around the Earth any objects carrying nuclear weapons or any other kinds of weapons of mass destruction". Of the council's 15 members, 13 voted in favour, while Russia - one of five permanent members with a veto - voted against and China abstained... Russian President Vladimir Putin said in response that Moscow was "categorically against" the use of nuclear weapons in space... Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said: "Russia is firmly committed to its international legal obligations, including 1967 The Outer Space Treaty." Russia's envoy to the UN, Vassily Nebenzia, described the US-Japanese resolution as a "cynical ploy" with "hidden motives"...

Putin’s war will soon reach Russians’ tax bills
Paul Sonne | 28 April 2024

President Vladimir Putin of Russia appears on track to institute a rare tax increase on corporations and high earners, a move that reflects both the burgeoning costs of his war in Ukraine and the firm control he has over the Russian elite as he embarks on a fifth term in office.

...Russia is allocating nearly one-third of its overall 2024 budget to national defense spending this year, a huge increase, adding to a deficit that the Kremlin has taken pains to keep in check.

The proposed tax increase underscores Putin’s rising confidence about his political control over the Russian elite and his country’s economic resilience at home, showing that he is willing to risk alienating parts of society to fund the war. It would represent the first major tax overhaul in over a decade...

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2024/04/28/world/politics/russia-ukraine-war-t...
------------------------------------------

Spring floods in Russia--one a week or two ago burst a dam, apparently leaving residents to fend for themselves?

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 7:08 AM · Apr 28, 2024:

Large-scale floods continue in Russia. But all the money and resources are aimed at supporting the war and killing of Ukrainians.

On the video: Russia's Tyumen region.
0:30 ( https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1784540132634136997 )

In the Abatsky district, the water level in the Ishim river rose by 18 cm and amounted to 1139 cm in 6 hours.

Emergency evacuation was announced in 4 settlements.
-------------------------------------------------

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 7:08 AM · Apr 28, 2024:

In Kurgan region of Russia, old wells of the Dobrovolnoye deposit, where one of Rosatom's enterprises mines uranium, flooded. The uranium solution could have flowed into the Tobol river. This information is confirmed by environmentalists.

It is reported that the flood washed the the radioactive mud into the Tobol river, which had been accumulating for years from the spreading underground water from old wells. An old, "leaking for 35 years well" could be under the water. It is to the right of the road on the video.

For years, Kurgan eco-activists have been pushing for a ban on uranium mining in Dobrovolnoye, fearing that radioactive solution would get into groundwater and the Tobol river. Rosatom explained the protests with "radiophobia." What will they say now?

0:47 (https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1782317330271256704)

Oleksandra Matviichuk @avalaina | 4:28 AM · Apr 29, 2024:
Heead of the Center for Civil Liberties (Ukraine)/ Nobel Peace Prize 2022/ Democracy Defender Award of OSCE 2016

The seven largest European banks in Russia - Raiffeisen Bank International, Unicredit, ING, Commerzbank, Deutsche Bank, Intesa Sanpaolo, and OTP - paid about 800 million euros in taxes to the Russian budget in 2023, the Financial Times reported.

This is four times more than before the full-scale invasion - in pre-war 2021, European banks paid 200 million euros in taxes to the Russian budget.