Climate change issues, prevention, adaptation 12
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1margd
History may not repeat itself but looks like it might rhyme... :(
In last thread, researchers found evidence of CO2 increase, AMOC weakening, and climate upheavals in water isotopes from ancient Antarctic ice.
Below, researchers link human decimation and migration related to climate change 900,000 years ago.
Study Reveals How Ancient Humans Escaped Climate Extinction 900,000 Years Ago
Humans
Michelle Starr | 18 March 2024
...researchers re-evaluated records of sites of early hominid habitation across Eurasia, and found a cluster of sites reliably dated to 900,000 years ago. In comparison, the dating on older sites used as evidence of a population bottleneck was more ambiguous and therefore disputable.
They compared their findings to marine sediment records, which preserve evidence of changes in the climate in the form of oxygen isotopes . Ratios of oxygen trapped in sediment layers indicate whether the climate was warmer or cooler at the time the minerals were deposited.
The genomic data and the dating of the hominid sites together suggest that the bottleneck and the migration were simultaneous. During the Mid-Pleistocene Transition, global ocean levels dropped, and Africa and Asia dried out, with large patches of aridity. Hominids living in Africa would have faced horrible conditions depriving them of food and water. Fortunately, with the falling sea level, land routes into Eurasia became available and they were able to skedaddle, according to the researchers' model...
https://www.sciencealert.com/study-reveals-how-ancient-humans-escaped-climate-ex...
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Giovanni Muttoni et al. 2024. Hominin population bottleneck coincided with migration from Africa during the Early Pleistocene ice age transition. PNAS March 11, 2024. 121 (13) e2318903121. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2318903121 https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2318903121
In last thread, researchers found evidence of CO2 increase, AMOC weakening, and climate upheavals in water isotopes from ancient Antarctic ice.
Below, researchers link human decimation and migration related to climate change 900,000 years ago.
Study Reveals How Ancient Humans Escaped Climate Extinction 900,000 Years Ago
Humans
Michelle Starr | 18 March 2024
...researchers re-evaluated records of sites of early hominid habitation across Eurasia, and found a cluster of sites reliably dated to 900,000 years ago. In comparison, the dating on older sites used as evidence of a population bottleneck was more ambiguous and therefore disputable.
They compared their findings to marine sediment records, which preserve evidence of changes in the climate in the form of oxygen isotopes . Ratios of oxygen trapped in sediment layers indicate whether the climate was warmer or cooler at the time the minerals were deposited.
The genomic data and the dating of the hominid sites together suggest that the bottleneck and the migration were simultaneous. During the Mid-Pleistocene Transition, global ocean levels dropped, and Africa and Asia dried out, with large patches of aridity. Hominids living in Africa would have faced horrible conditions depriving them of food and water. Fortunately, with the falling sea level, land routes into Eurasia became available and they were able to skedaddle, according to the researchers' model...
https://www.sciencealert.com/study-reveals-how-ancient-humans-escaped-climate-ex...
----------------------------------------------
Giovanni Muttoni et al. 2024. Hominin population bottleneck coincided with migration from Africa during the Early Pleistocene ice age transition. PNAS March 11, 2024. 121 (13) e2318903121. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2318903121 https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2318903121
2margd
Dramatic Shift in Africa 5,000 Years Ago Could Be a Warning of The Future
Martin Trauth | 12 May 2024
...Around five and half millennia ago, northern Africa went through a dramatic transformation. The Sahara desert expanded and grasslands, forests and lakes favoured by humans disappeared. Humans were forced to retreat to the mountains, the oases, and the Nile valley and delta.
As a relatively large and dispersed population was squeezed into smaller and more fertile areas, it needed to innovate new ways to produce food and organise society. Soon after, one of the world's first great civilisations emerged – ancient Egypt.
This transition from the most recent "African humid period", which lasted from 15,000 to 5,500 years ago, to the current dry conditions in northern Africa is the clearest example of a climate tipping point in recent geological history. Climate tipping points are thresholds that, once crossed, result in dramatic climate change to a new stable climate.
...before northern Africa dried out, its climate "flickered" between two stable climatic states before tipping permanently. This is the first time it's been shown such flickering happened in Earth's past. And it suggests that places with highly variable cycles of changing climate today may in some cases by headed for tipping points of their own.
Whether we will have any warnings of climate tipping points is one of the biggest concerns of climate scientists today. As we pass global warming of 1.5˚C, the most likely tipping points involve the collapse of ice sheets in Greenland or Antarctica, tropical coral reefs dying off, or abrupt thawing of Arctic permafrost.
Some say that there will be warning signs of these major climate shifts. However, these depend very much on the actual type of tipping point, and the interpretation of these signals is therefore difficult. One of the big questions is whether tipping points will be characterised by flickering or whether the climate will initially appear to become more stable before tipping over in one go...
...We now know that at the end of the African humid period there was around 1,000 years in which the climate alternated regularly between being intensely dry and wet...
...We see the same types of flickering during a previous change from humid to dry climate around 379,000 years ago in the same sediment core {long before humans had any influence on the environment}. It looks like a perfect copy of the transition at the end of the African humid period.
...It seems that highly variable climate conditions such as rapid wet–dry cycles may warn of a significant shift in the climate system. Identifying these precursors now may provide the warning we need that future warming will take us across one of more of the sixteen identified critical climate tipping points. {https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abn7950}
This is particularly important for regions such as eastern Africa whose nearly 500 million people are already highly vulnerable to climate change induced impacts such as drought...
https://www.sciencealert.com/dramatic-shift-in-africa-5000-years-ago-could-be-a-...
-----------------------------------------
Martin H. Trauth et al. 2024. Early warning signals of the termination of the African Humid Period(s). Nature Communications volume 15, Article number: 3697 (7 May 2024) https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-47921-1
Martin Trauth | 12 May 2024
...Around five and half millennia ago, northern Africa went through a dramatic transformation. The Sahara desert expanded and grasslands, forests and lakes favoured by humans disappeared. Humans were forced to retreat to the mountains, the oases, and the Nile valley and delta.
As a relatively large and dispersed population was squeezed into smaller and more fertile areas, it needed to innovate new ways to produce food and organise society. Soon after, one of the world's first great civilisations emerged – ancient Egypt.
This transition from the most recent "African humid period", which lasted from 15,000 to 5,500 years ago, to the current dry conditions in northern Africa is the clearest example of a climate tipping point in recent geological history. Climate tipping points are thresholds that, once crossed, result in dramatic climate change to a new stable climate.
...before northern Africa dried out, its climate "flickered" between two stable climatic states before tipping permanently. This is the first time it's been shown such flickering happened in Earth's past. And it suggests that places with highly variable cycles of changing climate today may in some cases by headed for tipping points of their own.
Whether we will have any warnings of climate tipping points is one of the biggest concerns of climate scientists today. As we pass global warming of 1.5˚C, the most likely tipping points involve the collapse of ice sheets in Greenland or Antarctica, tropical coral reefs dying off, or abrupt thawing of Arctic permafrost.
Some say that there will be warning signs of these major climate shifts. However, these depend very much on the actual type of tipping point, and the interpretation of these signals is therefore difficult. One of the big questions is whether tipping points will be characterised by flickering or whether the climate will initially appear to become more stable before tipping over in one go...
...We now know that at the end of the African humid period there was around 1,000 years in which the climate alternated regularly between being intensely dry and wet...
...We see the same types of flickering during a previous change from humid to dry climate around 379,000 years ago in the same sediment core {long before humans had any influence on the environment}. It looks like a perfect copy of the transition at the end of the African humid period.
...It seems that highly variable climate conditions such as rapid wet–dry cycles may warn of a significant shift in the climate system. Identifying these precursors now may provide the warning we need that future warming will take us across one of more of the sixteen identified critical climate tipping points. {https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abn7950}
This is particularly important for regions such as eastern Africa whose nearly 500 million people are already highly vulnerable to climate change induced impacts such as drought...
https://www.sciencealert.com/dramatic-shift-in-africa-5000-years-ago-could-be-a-...
-----------------------------------------
Martin H. Trauth et al. 2024. Early warning signals of the termination of the African Humid Period(s). Nature Communications volume 15, Article number: 3697 (7 May 2024) https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-47921-1
3margd
One event could wreak global climate havoc. Neither side of Australian politics has got a clue about it...
Climate Code Red | 13 May 2024
There is no greater disruptive physical climate risk than the collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), the main current system in the South and North Atlantic Oceans, which is linked to circulation in the Southern Ocean.
There is a non-trivial and unacceptable risk that the AMOC flow will collapse this century, with devastating consequences for global food production, for sea levels and for flooding in Australia. Shifts in global weather patterns would likely deprive Asia of vital monsoon rains, with enormous security consequences for the region and for Australia.
AMOC slowdown: ... It has been in a steady state for thousands of years, but climate change is melting Greenland at an accelerating rate, adding more fresh water to the Atlantic Ocean and gradually slowing the circulation strength... This system has already slowed by 15 per cent since the mid-20th century.
Collapse: ...A July 2023 study* estimated “a collapse of the AMOC to occur around mid-century under the current scenario of future emissions”, with a high confidence (95 per cent probability) of it occurring between 2025 and 2095. ...
Antarctic connection: ...Antarctic deep ocean warming and changes in deep ocean circulation contribut(e) to a slowing of the AMOC over the next few decades, with physical measurements confirming these changes already well underway. ...
Likelihood: {Stefan Rahmstorf, Potsdam U) warns that “when several studies with different data and methods point to a tipping point that is already quite close, I think this risk should be taken very seriously” and “increasingly the evidence points to the risk being far greater than 10 per cent during this century – even rather worrying for the next few decades”.
Consequences: ...AMOC slowdown would cool London by an average of 10°C and Bergen, Norway by 15°C. A breakdown of this system could plunge the UK and large parts of the Northern Hemisphere into a new ice age, with temperatures in parts of Europe dropping by 3°C each decade and sea levels rising by a metre on both sides of the North Atlantic, while the wet and dry seasons in the Amazon would flip and severely disrupt the rainforest’s ecosystem.
Global food and water security crisis: ...collapse of the AMOC heat-transporting circulation would be a going-out-of-business scenario for European agriculture...the monsoons that typically deliver rain to West Africa and South Asia would become unreliable, and huge swaths of Europe and Russia would be devastated by drought. As much as half of the world’s viable area for growing corn and wheat could dry out. {Prof. Peter Ditlevsen* of the University of Copenhagen} says that “in simple terms {it} would be a combined food and water security crisis on a global scale.”
Consequences for Australia: The southern hemisphere, including Australia, would become warmer and more prone to flooding. A regional food crisis would have huge impacts on the global price of food, leading to large-scale regional people displacement and contributing to state breakdown and regional conflict.
...The only rational response to possible AMOC collapse is a global emergency effort to reduce emissions to zero far sooner than policymakers’ 2050 timeframe, along with whatever other measures can be applied to prevent the levels of warming triggering such an event...
Download full report: Australia's Security Leaders Climate Group. May 2024. Too Hot to Handle. The Sorching Reality of Australia's Climate-Security Failure. https://www.aslcg.org/reports/too-hot-to-handle/
https://www.climatecodered.org/2024/05/one-climate-event-could-wreak-global.html
------------------------------------------
* Peter Ditlevsen & Susanne Ditlevsen 2023. Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Nature Communications volume 14, Article number: 4254 (25 July 2023). Open access. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-39810-w#Sec7
Abstract
...We estimate a collapse of the AMOC to occur around mid-century under the current scenario of future emissions.
Discussion
...We predict with high confidence the tipping to happen as soon as mid-century (2025–2095 is a 95% confidence range) ... given the importance of the AMOC for the climate system, we ought not to ignore such clear indicators of an imminent collapse.
Though we have established firm statistical methods to evaluate the confidence in the observed EWS (Early Warning Signals), we can at present not rule out the possibility that a collapse will only be partial and not lead to a full collapse of the AMOC as suggested by some models... Furthermore, a high speed of ramping, i.e., a high speed at which the critical value of the control parameter is approached, could also increase the probability of tipping... Even with these reservations, this is indeed a worrisome result, which should call for fast and effective measures to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions in order to avoid the steady change of the control parameter toward the collapse of the AMOC (i.e., reduce temperature increase and freshwater input through ice melting into the North Atlantic region). As a collapse of the AMOC has strong societal implications..., it is important to monitor the flow and EWS from direct measurements...
Climate Code Red | 13 May 2024
There is no greater disruptive physical climate risk than the collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), the main current system in the South and North Atlantic Oceans, which is linked to circulation in the Southern Ocean.
There is a non-trivial and unacceptable risk that the AMOC flow will collapse this century, with devastating consequences for global food production, for sea levels and for flooding in Australia. Shifts in global weather patterns would likely deprive Asia of vital monsoon rains, with enormous security consequences for the region and for Australia.
AMOC slowdown: ... It has been in a steady state for thousands of years, but climate change is melting Greenland at an accelerating rate, adding more fresh water to the Atlantic Ocean and gradually slowing the circulation strength... This system has already slowed by 15 per cent since the mid-20th century.
Collapse: ...A July 2023 study* estimated “a collapse of the AMOC to occur around mid-century under the current scenario of future emissions”, with a high confidence (95 per cent probability) of it occurring between 2025 and 2095. ...
Antarctic connection: ...Antarctic deep ocean warming and changes in deep ocean circulation contribut(e) to a slowing of the AMOC over the next few decades, with physical measurements confirming these changes already well underway. ...
Likelihood: {Stefan Rahmstorf, Potsdam U) warns that “when several studies with different data and methods point to a tipping point that is already quite close, I think this risk should be taken very seriously” and “increasingly the evidence points to the risk being far greater than 10 per cent during this century – even rather worrying for the next few decades”.
Consequences: ...AMOC slowdown would cool London by an average of 10°C and Bergen, Norway by 15°C. A breakdown of this system could plunge the UK and large parts of the Northern Hemisphere into a new ice age, with temperatures in parts of Europe dropping by 3°C each decade and sea levels rising by a metre on both sides of the North Atlantic, while the wet and dry seasons in the Amazon would flip and severely disrupt the rainforest’s ecosystem.
Global food and water security crisis: ...collapse of the AMOC heat-transporting circulation would be a going-out-of-business scenario for European agriculture...the monsoons that typically deliver rain to West Africa and South Asia would become unreliable, and huge swaths of Europe and Russia would be devastated by drought. As much as half of the world’s viable area for growing corn and wheat could dry out. {Prof. Peter Ditlevsen* of the University of Copenhagen} says that “in simple terms {it} would be a combined food and water security crisis on a global scale.”
Consequences for Australia: The southern hemisphere, including Australia, would become warmer and more prone to flooding. A regional food crisis would have huge impacts on the global price of food, leading to large-scale regional people displacement and contributing to state breakdown and regional conflict.
...The only rational response to possible AMOC collapse is a global emergency effort to reduce emissions to zero far sooner than policymakers’ 2050 timeframe, along with whatever other measures can be applied to prevent the levels of warming triggering such an event...
Download full report: Australia's Security Leaders Climate Group. May 2024. Too Hot to Handle. The Sorching Reality of Australia's Climate-Security Failure. https://www.aslcg.org/reports/too-hot-to-handle/
https://www.climatecodered.org/2024/05/one-climate-event-could-wreak-global.html
------------------------------------------
* Peter Ditlevsen & Susanne Ditlevsen 2023. Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Nature Communications volume 14, Article number: 4254 (25 July 2023). Open access. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-39810-w#Sec7
Abstract
...We estimate a collapse of the AMOC to occur around mid-century under the current scenario of future emissions.
Discussion
...We predict with high confidence the tipping to happen as soon as mid-century (2025–2095 is a 95% confidence range) ... given the importance of the AMOC for the climate system, we ought not to ignore such clear indicators of an imminent collapse.
Though we have established firm statistical methods to evaluate the confidence in the observed EWS (Early Warning Signals), we can at present not rule out the possibility that a collapse will only be partial and not lead to a full collapse of the AMOC as suggested by some models... Furthermore, a high speed of ramping, i.e., a high speed at which the critical value of the control parameter is approached, could also increase the probability of tipping... Even with these reservations, this is indeed a worrisome result, which should call for fast and effective measures to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions in order to avoid the steady change of the control parameter toward the collapse of the AMOC (i.e., reduce temperature increase and freshwater input through ice melting into the North Atlantic region). As a collapse of the AMOC has strong societal implications..., it is important to monitor the flow and EWS from direct measurements...
4margd
>3 margd: AMOC collapse, contd. On course... :(
Atlantic Ocean is headed for a tipping point − once melting glaciers shut down the Gulf Stream, we would see extreme climate change within decades, study shows
René van Westen, Henk A. Dijkstra and Michael Kliphuis (Utrecht University) | Updated: February 11, 2024
...the Atlantic Ocean circulation has observably slowed over the past two decades, possibly to its weakest state in almost a millennium....the circulation has reached a dangerous tipping point in the past that sent it into a precipitous, unstoppable decline, and that it could hit that tipping point again as the planet warms and glaciers and ice sheets melt.
...We performed an experiment with a detailed climate model to find the tipping point for an abrupt shutdown by slowly increasing the input of fresh water.
We found that once it reaches the tipping point, the conveyor belt shuts down within 100 years. The heat transport toward the north is strongly reduced, leading to abrupt climate shifts.
The result: Dangerous cold in the North...The conveyor belt shutting down would also affect sea level and precipitation patterns, which can push other ecosystems closer to their tipping points.
So, when will we see this tipping point?...a physics-based and observable early warning signal involving the salinity transport at the southern boundary of the Atlantic Ocean {margd: latitude 34°S? Per graph in article, 0.5 input of freshwater? } . Once a threshold is reached, the tipping point is likely to follow in one to four decades...
https://theconversation.com/atlantic-ocean-is-headed-for-a-tipping-point-once-me...
------------------------------------------
René M. van Westen et al. 2024. Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course. Science Advances, 9 Feb 2024, Vol 10, Issue 6.
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adk1189 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adk1189
Atlantic Ocean is headed for a tipping point − once melting glaciers shut down the Gulf Stream, we would see extreme climate change within decades, study shows
René van Westen, Henk A. Dijkstra and Michael Kliphuis (Utrecht University) | Updated: February 11, 2024
...the Atlantic Ocean circulation has observably slowed over the past two decades, possibly to its weakest state in almost a millennium....the circulation has reached a dangerous tipping point in the past that sent it into a precipitous, unstoppable decline, and that it could hit that tipping point again as the planet warms and glaciers and ice sheets melt.
...We performed an experiment with a detailed climate model to find the tipping point for an abrupt shutdown by slowly increasing the input of fresh water.
We found that once it reaches the tipping point, the conveyor belt shuts down within 100 years. The heat transport toward the north is strongly reduced, leading to abrupt climate shifts.
The result: Dangerous cold in the North...The conveyor belt shutting down would also affect sea level and precipitation patterns, which can push other ecosystems closer to their tipping points.
So, when will we see this tipping point?...a physics-based and observable early warning signal involving the salinity transport at the southern boundary of the Atlantic Ocean {margd: latitude 34°S? Per graph in article, 0.5 input of freshwater? } . Once a threshold is reached, the tipping point is likely to follow in one to four decades...
https://theconversation.com/atlantic-ocean-is-headed-for-a-tipping-point-once-me...
------------------------------------------
René M. van Westen et al. 2024. Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course. Science Advances, 9 Feb 2024, Vol 10, Issue 6.
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adk1189 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adk1189
5margd
Pope Francis: "Climate change at this moment is a road to death"
Jennifer Earl | May 21, 2024
..."How worried are you about climate change?" CBS Evening News anchor and managing editor Norah O'Donnell asked Francis during a historic interview in Vatican City.
"Unfortunately, we have gotten to a point of no return. It's sad, but that's what it is. Global warming is a serious problem," Francis replied. "Climate change at this moment is a road to death."
Francis said wealthy countries reliant on fossil fuels are contributing to the problem.
"They are the countries that can make the most difference, given their industry and all, aren't they? But it is very difficult to create an awareness of this. They hold a conference, everybody is in agreement, they all sign, and then bye-bye. But we have to be very clear, global warming is alarming," Francis said.
...On Earth Day this year, Francis wrote a message on social media saying, "Our generation has bequeathed many riches, but we have failed to protect the planet and we are not safeguarding peace. We are called to become artisans and caretakers of our common home, the Earth which is 'falling into ruin.'"..
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/pope-francis-urges-action-on-climate-change-its-a-r...
Jennifer Earl | May 21, 2024
..."How worried are you about climate change?" CBS Evening News anchor and managing editor Norah O'Donnell asked Francis during a historic interview in Vatican City.
"Unfortunately, we have gotten to a point of no return. It's sad, but that's what it is. Global warming is a serious problem," Francis replied. "Climate change at this moment is a road to death."
Francis said wealthy countries reliant on fossil fuels are contributing to the problem.
"They are the countries that can make the most difference, given their industry and all, aren't they? But it is very difficult to create an awareness of this. They hold a conference, everybody is in agreement, they all sign, and then bye-bye. But we have to be very clear, global warming is alarming," Francis said.
...On Earth Day this year, Francis wrote a message on social media saying, "Our generation has bequeathed many riches, but we have failed to protect the planet and we are not safeguarding peace. We are called to become artisans and caretakers of our common home, the Earth which is 'falling into ruin.'"..
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/pope-francis-urges-action-on-climate-change-its-a-r...
6margd
Alaska's pristine rivers are turning a rusty orange even when seen from space, likely because of melting permafrost: study
Matthew Loh | May 23, 2024
Scientists say that dozens of waterways in Alaska are "rusting," or turning into a dirty orange.
They said permafrost thawing in the summer is now exposing minerals to the surface, releasing metals and acid.
Some brooks and streams are turning so acidic that they're comparable to lemon or orange juice {pH 2.6}...
...At least 75...first observed in 2018 ... first observed in the northwestern state in 2018 ... Previously locked beneath Alaska's permafrost, these minerals are now exposed to water and oxygen, causing them to release acid and metals like zinc, copper, iron, and aluminum ... dissolved iron is thought to be the main culprit behind the "rusting" of the rivers...
https://www.businessinsider.com/75-alaskan-rivers-turning-orange-even-seen-from-...
---------------------------------------
Jonathan A. O’Donnell et al. 2024. Metal mobilization from thawing permafrost to aquatic ecosystems is driving rusting of Arctic streams. Communications Earth & Environment volume 5, Article number: 268 (20 May 2024). Open access. https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01446-z?CJEVENT=cd5a07a218d811ef83f94...
Matthew Loh | May 23, 2024
Scientists say that dozens of waterways in Alaska are "rusting," or turning into a dirty orange.
They said permafrost thawing in the summer is now exposing minerals to the surface, releasing metals and acid.
Some brooks and streams are turning so acidic that they're comparable to lemon or orange juice {pH 2.6}...
...At least 75...first observed in 2018 ... first observed in the northwestern state in 2018 ... Previously locked beneath Alaska's permafrost, these minerals are now exposed to water and oxygen, causing them to release acid and metals like zinc, copper, iron, and aluminum ... dissolved iron is thought to be the main culprit behind the "rusting" of the rivers...
https://www.businessinsider.com/75-alaskan-rivers-turning-orange-even-seen-from-...
---------------------------------------
Jonathan A. O’Donnell et al. 2024. Metal mobilization from thawing permafrost to aquatic ecosystems is driving rusting of Arctic streams. Communications Earth & Environment volume 5, Article number: 268 (20 May 2024). Open access. https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01446-z?CJEVENT=cd5a07a218d811ef83f94...
7margd
Top oil firms’ climate pledges failing on almost every metric, report finds
Dharna Noor | 21 May 2024
Oil Change International says plans do not stand up to scrutiny and describes US fossil-fuel corporations as ‘the worst of the worst’...
...examined climate plans from the eight largest US- and European-based international oil and gas producers – BP, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Eni, Equinor, ExxonMobil, Shell and TotalEnergies – and found none were compatible with limiting global warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels – a threshold scientists have long warned could have dire consequences if breached...
...the companies’ current oil and gas extraction plans could lead to more than 2.4C of global temperature rise, which would probably usher in climate devastation...
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/may/21/oil-companies-report-fos...
Dharna Noor | 21 May 2024
Oil Change International says plans do not stand up to scrutiny and describes US fossil-fuel corporations as ‘the worst of the worst’...
...examined climate plans from the eight largest US- and European-based international oil and gas producers – BP, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Eni, Equinor, ExxonMobil, Shell and TotalEnergies – and found none were compatible with limiting global warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels – a threshold scientists have long warned could have dire consequences if breached...
...the companies’ current oil and gas extraction plans could lead to more than 2.4C of global temperature rise, which would probably usher in climate devastation...
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/may/21/oil-companies-report-fos...
8margd
The True Power of the Climate Movement Is Now to Admit Our Own Powerlessness
Rupert Read | May 22, 2024
...What if the most powerful thing that can be done now is for those who carry the flame ... to admit a kind of defeat? To admit that we are definitively exiting the safe climate space...
https://www.desmog.com/2024/05/22/the-true-power-of-the-climate-movement-is-now-...
-----------------------------------------------
This civilisation is finished: so what is to be done? (1:11:55 -- 40 min presentation + Q&A)
Rupert Read, Environmental Philosopher and Chair of Green House Think Tank.
Filmed at Churchill College, University of Cambridge. 7 Nov 2018.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uzCxFPzdO0Y
The Paris Agreement explicitly commits us to use non-existent, utterly reckless, unaffordable and ineffective 'Negative Emissions Technologies' which will almost certainly fail to be realised. Barring a multifaceted miracle, within a generation, we will be facing an exponentially rising tide of climate disasters that will bring this civilization down. We, therefore, need to engage with climate realism. This means an epic struggle to mitigate and adapt, an epic struggle to take on the climate-criminals and, notably, to start planning seriously for civilizational collapse...
-------------------------------------
1. Wake up
2. Talk about this
3. Think civilizational succession--values, skills
4. Build lifeboats --$, food, community, seed banks, i.e., transformational adaptation, deep adaptation (sea level rise)
5. Holding action
6. Rebel
7. Stop--take time to think
Rupert Read | May 22, 2024
...What if the most powerful thing that can be done now is for those who carry the flame ... to admit a kind of defeat? To admit that we are definitively exiting the safe climate space...
https://www.desmog.com/2024/05/22/the-true-power-of-the-climate-movement-is-now-...
-----------------------------------------------
This civilisation is finished: so what is to be done? (1:11:55 -- 40 min presentation + Q&A)
Rupert Read, Environmental Philosopher and Chair of Green House Think Tank.
Filmed at Churchill College, University of Cambridge. 7 Nov 2018.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uzCxFPzdO0Y
The Paris Agreement explicitly commits us to use non-existent, utterly reckless, unaffordable and ineffective 'Negative Emissions Technologies' which will almost certainly fail to be realised. Barring a multifaceted miracle, within a generation, we will be facing an exponentially rising tide of climate disasters that will bring this civilization down. We, therefore, need to engage with climate realism. This means an epic struggle to mitigate and adapt, an epic struggle to take on the climate-criminals and, notably, to start planning seriously for civilizational collapse...
-------------------------------------
1. Wake up
2. Talk about this
3. Think civilizational succession--values, skills
4. Build lifeboats --$, food, community, seed banks, i.e., transformational adaptation, deep adaptation (sea level rise)
5. Holding action
6. Rebel
7. Stop--take time to think
9margd
Yellow Dot Studios @weareyellowdot | 12:27 PM · May 23, 2024:
Non-profit media studio challenging polluter BS to mobilize climate action. Founded by Adam McKay.
Dr. Hansen's blockbuster announcement ... has received exactly... zero (0) press stories.
Live reactions to Dr. James Hansen's announcement last week that Earth has already reached 1.5°C of global warming:
0:59 (https://x.com/weareyellowdot/status/1793678471719178508)
--------------------------------------
James Edward Hansen @DrJamesEHansen | 9:29 AM · May 16, 2024:
Director of Climate Science, Awareness and Solutions at Columbia University's Earth Institute http://csas.earth.columbia.edu
Formerly Director of NASA GISS
Global temperature is now near its peak due to El Nino + aerosol decrease. How far will it fall in the coming La Nina? If El Nino/La Nina average is ~1.5C, given Earth’s energy imbalance, we are now passing thru 1.5C, for practical purposes. See MayRpt -
Comments on Global Warming Acceleration, Sulfur Emissions, Observations
James Hansen, Pushker Kharecha, Makiko Sato | 16 May 2024
https://mailchi.mp/caa/comments-on-global-warming-acceleration-sulfur-emissions-...
Graph Temperature anomaly 1880-present (https://x.com/DrJamesEHansen/status/1791098653622571341/photo/1)
Non-profit media studio challenging polluter BS to mobilize climate action. Founded by Adam McKay.
Dr. Hansen's blockbuster announcement ... has received exactly... zero (0) press stories.
Live reactions to Dr. James Hansen's announcement last week that Earth has already reached 1.5°C of global warming:
0:59 (https://x.com/weareyellowdot/status/1793678471719178508)
--------------------------------------
James Edward Hansen @DrJamesEHansen | 9:29 AM · May 16, 2024:
Director of Climate Science, Awareness and Solutions at Columbia University's Earth Institute http://csas.earth.columbia.edu
Formerly Director of NASA GISS
Global temperature is now near its peak due to El Nino + aerosol decrease. How far will it fall in the coming La Nina? If El Nino/La Nina average is ~1.5C, given Earth’s energy imbalance, we are now passing thru 1.5C, for practical purposes. See MayRpt -
Comments on Global Warming Acceleration, Sulfur Emissions, Observations
James Hansen, Pushker Kharecha, Makiko Sato | 16 May 2024
https://mailchi.mp/caa/comments-on-global-warming-acceleration-sulfur-emissions-...
Graph Temperature anomaly 1880-present (https://x.com/DrJamesEHansen/status/1791098653622571341/photo/1)
10margd
Ocean water is rushing miles underneath the ‘Doomsday Glacier’ with potentially dire impacts on sea level rise
Laura Paddison | May 21, 2024
... The Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica — nicknamed the “Doomsday Glacier” because its collapse could cause catastrophic sea level rise — is the world’s widest glacier and roughly the size of Florida. It’s also Antarctica’s most vulnerable and unstable glacier, in large part because the land on which it sits slopes downward, allowing ocean waters to eat away at its ice.
Thwaites, which already contributes 4% to global sea level rise, holds enough ice to raise sea levels by more than 2 feet. But because it also acts as a natural dam to the surrounding ice in West Antarctica, scientists have estimated its complete collapse could ultimately lead to around 10 feet of sea level rise — a catastrophe for the world’s coastal communities.
...glaciologists ... used high resolution satellite radar data, collected between March and June last year, to create an X-ray of the glacier. This allowed them to build a picture of changes to Thwaites’ “grounding line,” the point at which the glacier rises from the seabed and becomes a floating ice shelf. Grounding lines are vital to the stability of ice sheets, and a key point of vulnerability for Thwaites, but have been difficult to study.
... They observed seawater pushing beneath the glacier over many miles, and then moving out again, following the daily rhythm of the tides. When the water flows in, it’s enough to “jack up” the surface of the glacier by centimeters, {Eric Rignot, professor of Earth system science at the University of California at Irvine and a co-author on the study} told CNN.
He suggested the term “grounding zone” may be more apt than grounding line, as it can move nearly 4 miles over a 12-hour tidal cycle, according to their research.
The speed of the seawater, which moves considerable distances over a short time period, increases glacier melt because as soon as the ice melts, freshwater is washed out and replaced with warmer seawater, Rignot said...
https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/20/climate/doomsday-glacier-melt-antarctica-climate-...
Laura Paddison | May 21, 2024
... The Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica — nicknamed the “Doomsday Glacier” because its collapse could cause catastrophic sea level rise — is the world’s widest glacier and roughly the size of Florida. It’s also Antarctica’s most vulnerable and unstable glacier, in large part because the land on which it sits slopes downward, allowing ocean waters to eat away at its ice.
Thwaites, which already contributes 4% to global sea level rise, holds enough ice to raise sea levels by more than 2 feet. But because it also acts as a natural dam to the surrounding ice in West Antarctica, scientists have estimated its complete collapse could ultimately lead to around 10 feet of sea level rise — a catastrophe for the world’s coastal communities.
...glaciologists ... used high resolution satellite radar data, collected between March and June last year, to create an X-ray of the glacier. This allowed them to build a picture of changes to Thwaites’ “grounding line,” the point at which the glacier rises from the seabed and becomes a floating ice shelf. Grounding lines are vital to the stability of ice sheets, and a key point of vulnerability for Thwaites, but have been difficult to study.
... They observed seawater pushing beneath the glacier over many miles, and then moving out again, following the daily rhythm of the tides. When the water flows in, it’s enough to “jack up” the surface of the glacier by centimeters, {Eric Rignot, professor of Earth system science at the University of California at Irvine and a co-author on the study} told CNN.
He suggested the term “grounding zone” may be more apt than grounding line, as it can move nearly 4 miles over a 12-hour tidal cycle, according to their research.
The speed of the seawater, which moves considerable distances over a short time period, increases glacier melt because as soon as the ice melts, freshwater is washed out and replaced with warmer seawater, Rignot said...
https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/20/climate/doomsday-glacier-melt-antarctica-climate-...
11margd
https://e360.yale.edu/features/southern-africa-drought-crops
How an El Niño-Driven Drought Brought Hunger to Southern Africa
Jenipher Changwanda and Freddie Clayton • May 20, 2024
A record-breaking drought, fueled by the El Niño weather pattern, has caused widespread crop failure and national emergency declarations in Zambia, Malawi, and Zimbabwe. Without harvests of maize, the staple food, millions in the region are facing a severe hunger crisis.
A World Weather Attribution study found that El Niño — a recurring phenomenon that brings unusually warm waters to the Pacific Ocean and disrupts weather patterns around the world — was the key driver behind the record-breaking drought. Between January and March, when the rains usually fall on {a village in Zambia’s Chongwe District, not far from the capital, Lusaka}, heat waves and temperatures 9 degrees F. (5 degrees C) above average devastated southern Africa.
Zambia, Zimbabwe, and Malawi each declared national disasters as crops failed in a region where 70 percent of smallholder farmers rely on rainfed agriculture for their livelihood. Food prices have risen up to 82 percent in some drought-affected areas, while water scarcity has also impacted livestock and destroyed farmland. According to a United Nations report, more than 18 million people are now in need of urgent humanitarian assistance, with food insecurity levels set to increase dramatically during the regular lean season that typically starts in October. This year, the lean season could begin as early as July as provisions are depleted.
Analysts working for the Famine Early Warning Systems Network said that southern Africa, typically a net exporter of maize — the region’s staple food — would have to import 5 million tons to meet demand.
El Niño ended in April as the Pacific Ocean cooled, but this offers little reprieve. Drought has pushed southern Africa to its limits, and the rains won’t come again until October. The region can scarcely handle the current reality, yet there are serious concerns that events like this are getting worse...
https://e360.yale.edu/features/southern-africa-drought-crops
________________________________
Peter Dynes @PGDynes | 6:36 PM · May 26, 2024:
MD http://MEER.org - building climate resilient Adaptation/Mitigation through SRT (surface reflection technology) {Belfast}
Climate Policy plans that lead to a world beyond 2C of warming is a very, very bad plan. A world beyond 2C is an uninhabitable Earth for billions of people. There better be a better plan than that, and it better be very soon.
Global map (https://x.com/PGDynes/status/1794860150685319458/photo/1)
How an El Niño-Driven Drought Brought Hunger to Southern Africa
Jenipher Changwanda and Freddie Clayton • May 20, 2024
A record-breaking drought, fueled by the El Niño weather pattern, has caused widespread crop failure and national emergency declarations in Zambia, Malawi, and Zimbabwe. Without harvests of maize, the staple food, millions in the region are facing a severe hunger crisis.
A World Weather Attribution study found that El Niño — a recurring phenomenon that brings unusually warm waters to the Pacific Ocean and disrupts weather patterns around the world — was the key driver behind the record-breaking drought. Between January and March, when the rains usually fall on {a village in Zambia’s Chongwe District, not far from the capital, Lusaka}, heat waves and temperatures 9 degrees F. (5 degrees C) above average devastated southern Africa.
Zambia, Zimbabwe, and Malawi each declared national disasters as crops failed in a region where 70 percent of smallholder farmers rely on rainfed agriculture for their livelihood. Food prices have risen up to 82 percent in some drought-affected areas, while water scarcity has also impacted livestock and destroyed farmland. According to a United Nations report, more than 18 million people are now in need of urgent humanitarian assistance, with food insecurity levels set to increase dramatically during the regular lean season that typically starts in October. This year, the lean season could begin as early as July as provisions are depleted.
Analysts working for the Famine Early Warning Systems Network said that southern Africa, typically a net exporter of maize — the region’s staple food — would have to import 5 million tons to meet demand.
El Niño ended in April as the Pacific Ocean cooled, but this offers little reprieve. Drought has pushed southern Africa to its limits, and the rains won’t come again until October. The region can scarcely handle the current reality, yet there are serious concerns that events like this are getting worse...
https://e360.yale.edu/features/southern-africa-drought-crops
________________________________
Peter Dynes @PGDynes | 6:36 PM · May 26, 2024:
MD http://MEER.org - building climate resilient Adaptation/Mitigation through SRT (surface reflection technology) {Belfast}
Climate Policy plans that lead to a world beyond 2C of warming is a very, very bad plan. A world beyond 2C is an uninhabitable Earth for billions of people. There better be a better plan than that, and it better be very soon.
Global map (https://x.com/PGDynes/status/1794860150685319458/photo/1)
12margd
Oldest ever ice offers glimpse of Earth before the ice ages
Elise Cutts | 22 Apr 2024
Climate snapshots suggest carbon dioxide levels were surprisingly modest during ancient warm period
Samples of eerie blue glacial ice from Antarctica are a staggering 6 million years old ... Bubbles in the ice trap air from the Pliocene epoch, a time before the ice ages when the planet was several degrees warmer than today and carbon dioxide (CO2) levels may have been just as high as they are now. But an initial analysis of the bubbles suggests CO2 levels were rather low in the late Pliocene and only sank slightly between 2.7 million and 1 million years ago as the Pliocene ended, the ice ages began, and Earth headed toward a dramatic climate shift that caused ice ages to grow longer and deeper.
...Scientists think high levels of CO2 were responsible for the Pliocene’s warmth. Proxy data from sediment cores, such as the chemical compositions of the shells of tiny marine algae and plant leaf waxes, suggest CO2 was probably about as high as today’s unnaturally elevated level, 425 parts per million (ppm). But not one blue ice sample older than 1 million years exceeded 300 ppm...
The greenhouse gas data also raise questions about a mysterious climate shift that began about 1.2 million years ago. At this time, something caused the ice ages to grow longer and more intense, stretching out from mild 40,000-year cycles to deeper 100,000-year cycles. The leading theory for this flip is that CO2 levels dropped, allowing ice sheets to grow too thick to melt away on a 40,000-year cycle. A new climate record from clues preserved in sediment cores, reported in February, supports that picture. But the snapshots across the transition found in the blue ice suggest CO2 levels held steady between about 220 ppm and 250 ppm. “We don’t see much change in CO2,” {Julia Marks Peterson, a paleoclimatologist at OSU who performed the greenhouse gas analysis. says. “That doesn’t mean there wasn’t one. But it might be smaller than we expected.”
To find out what really triggered the ice age shift, researchers want a continuous core that covers the transition. Finding such a core “is kind of the holy grail of understanding whether the CO2 was part of this change,” {Eric Wolff, a paleoclimatologist at the University of Cambridge who wasn’t involved in the work} says. ... Scientific teams from the United States, Europe, Australia, Japan, South Korea, China, and Russia are all working to find one...
https://www.science.org/content/article/oldest-ever-ice-offers-glimpse-earth-ice...
Elise Cutts | 22 Apr 2024
Climate snapshots suggest carbon dioxide levels were surprisingly modest during ancient warm period
Samples of eerie blue glacial ice from Antarctica are a staggering 6 million years old ... Bubbles in the ice trap air from the Pliocene epoch, a time before the ice ages when the planet was several degrees warmer than today and carbon dioxide (CO2) levels may have been just as high as they are now. But an initial analysis of the bubbles suggests CO2 levels were rather low in the late Pliocene and only sank slightly between 2.7 million and 1 million years ago as the Pliocene ended, the ice ages began, and Earth headed toward a dramatic climate shift that caused ice ages to grow longer and deeper.
...Scientists think high levels of CO2 were responsible for the Pliocene’s warmth. Proxy data from sediment cores, such as the chemical compositions of the shells of tiny marine algae and plant leaf waxes, suggest CO2 was probably about as high as today’s unnaturally elevated level, 425 parts per million (ppm). But not one blue ice sample older than 1 million years exceeded 300 ppm...
The greenhouse gas data also raise questions about a mysterious climate shift that began about 1.2 million years ago. At this time, something caused the ice ages to grow longer and more intense, stretching out from mild 40,000-year cycles to deeper 100,000-year cycles. The leading theory for this flip is that CO2 levels dropped, allowing ice sheets to grow too thick to melt away on a 40,000-year cycle. A new climate record from clues preserved in sediment cores, reported in February, supports that picture. But the snapshots across the transition found in the blue ice suggest CO2 levels held steady between about 220 ppm and 250 ppm. “We don’t see much change in CO2,” {Julia Marks Peterson, a paleoclimatologist at OSU who performed the greenhouse gas analysis. says. “That doesn’t mean there wasn’t one. But it might be smaller than we expected.”
To find out what really triggered the ice age shift, researchers want a continuous core that covers the transition. Finding such a core “is kind of the holy grail of understanding whether the CO2 was part of this change,” {Eric Wolff, a paleoclimatologist at the University of Cambridge who wasn’t involved in the work} says. ... Scientific teams from the United States, Europe, Australia, Japan, South Korea, China, and Russia are all working to find one...
https://www.science.org/content/article/oldest-ever-ice-offers-glimpse-earth-ice...
13margd
ADA (THE ISLAND) (5:01)
movie directed by Mahmut TAŞ | Mar 11, 2024
...ENGLİSH :
Ada; She is a little girl living in a dry village where it has not rained for a long time. Ada's family is considering leaving the village if the thirst continues. Ada is very upset about this and wants to tell us about her village with her camera. She goes to a lake that used to be full of water and visits the island named after her. But she sees that the lake is completely dry, the soil is cracked and there is no water left in it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p2cMijeWVcg
movie directed by Mahmut TAŞ | Mar 11, 2024
...ENGLİSH :
Ada; She is a little girl living in a dry village where it has not rained for a long time. Ada's family is considering leaving the village if the thirst continues. Ada is very upset about this and wants to tell us about her village with her camera. She goes to a lake that used to be full of water and visits the island named after her. But she sees that the lake is completely dry, the soil is cracked and there is no water left in it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p2cMijeWVcg
14margd
Geez...the CAPITAL of India, not its deserts...
Delhi temperature hits highest ever in India, 52.3 Celsius: weather bureau
AFP | May 29, 2024
Temperatures in India’s capital soared to a national record-high of 52.3 degrees Celsius (126.1 Fahrenheit) ... The India Meteorological Department (IMD), which reported “severe heat-wave conditions”, recorded the temperature in the Delhi suburb of Mungeshpur on Wednesday afternoon, smashing the previous national record in the desert of Rajasthan by more one degree Celsius.
https://insiderpaper.com/indias-capital-hits-record-50-5-celsius-weather-bureau/
Delhi temperature hits highest ever in India, 52.3 Celsius: weather bureau
AFP | May 29, 2024
Temperatures in India’s capital soared to a national record-high of 52.3 degrees Celsius (126.1 Fahrenheit) ... The India Meteorological Department (IMD), which reported “severe heat-wave conditions”, recorded the temperature in the Delhi suburb of Mungeshpur on Wednesday afternoon, smashing the previous national record in the desert of Rajasthan by more one degree Celsius.
https://insiderpaper.com/indias-capital-hits-record-50-5-celsius-weather-bureau/
15margd
'A great sadness': Venezuela is first Andean country to lose all of its glaciers
Albinson Linares, Noticias Telemundo | May 25, 2024
Scientists explain the loss of the Humboldt Glacier {aka La Corona, or "the crown" in Spanish}, the last in the Sierra Nevada, which they believe makes the South American country the first in modern history to lose all its glaciers.
For the people of the Venezuelan state of Mérida, the glaciated peaks of its Sierra Nevada have been a source of pride since time immemorial: The mountains are part of the regional identity and the origin of various legends in the area that relate them to mythical white eagles.
However, none of the six glaciers that crowned the mountains remain ...
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/-great-sadness-venezuela-first-andean-countr...
Albinson Linares, Noticias Telemundo | May 25, 2024
Scientists explain the loss of the Humboldt Glacier {aka La Corona, or "the crown" in Spanish}, the last in the Sierra Nevada, which they believe makes the South American country the first in modern history to lose all its glaciers.
For the people of the Venezuelan state of Mérida, the glaciated peaks of its Sierra Nevada have been a source of pride since time immemorial: The mountains are part of the regional identity and the origin of various legends in the area that relate them to mythical white eagles.
However, none of the six glaciers that crowned the mountains remain ...
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/-great-sadness-venezuela-first-andean-countr...
16margd
Peter Dynes @PGDynes | 10:30 AM · May 30, 2024 {X}:
MD http://MEER.org - building climate resilient Adaptation/Mitigation through SRT (surface reflection technology) {Belfast}
Deaths caused by #heat in the #US and elsewhere are only heading in one direction - up. Don't expect this trend to reverse anytime soon. The #climate is heading into uncharted territory at this point and the risk of a seriously large event grows by the day.
Graph 10X heat deaths Maricopa Co., AZ 2014-2024 (https://x.com/PGDynes/status/1796187309467217993/photo/1)
______________________________________
Delhi records 52.9°C, how does it compare to world record?
TOI | 29 May 2024
{Death Valley, 54.4C (2023) & 56.7C (1913)}
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/110541844.cms?utm_source=contento...
MD http://MEER.org - building climate resilient Adaptation/Mitigation through SRT (surface reflection technology) {Belfast}
Deaths caused by #heat in the #US and elsewhere are only heading in one direction - up. Don't expect this trend to reverse anytime soon. The #climate is heading into uncharted territory at this point and the risk of a seriously large event grows by the day.
Graph 10X heat deaths Maricopa Co., AZ 2014-2024 (https://x.com/PGDynes/status/1796187309467217993/photo/1)
______________________________________
Delhi records 52.9°C, how does it compare to world record?
TOI | 29 May 2024
{Death Valley, 54.4C (2023) & 56.7C (1913)}
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/110541844.cms?utm_source=contento...
17margd
Interesting -- also, in addition to cleanup of China's smog, ships changing to cleaner fuel made for fewer particle emissions, affecting ocean temperatures...
Pollution Paradox: How Cleaning Up Smog Drives Ocean Warming
Fred Pearce • May 28, 2024
New research indicates that the decline in smog particles from China’s air cleanups caused the recent extreme heat waves in the Pacific. Scientists are grappling with the fact that reducing such pollution, while essential for public health, is also heating the atmosphere...
https://e360.yale.edu/features/aerosols-warming-climate-change
----------------------------------------------
Hai Wang et al. 2024. Atmosphere teleconnections from abatement of China aerosol emissions exacerbate Northeast Pacific warm blob events. PNAS May 6, 2024 121 (21) e2313797121 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2313797121 https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2313797121
Significance
The period of 2010 to 2020 has witnessed the warmest Northeast Pacific (NEP) sea surface temperatures ever recorded, with several prolonged extreme ocean warming events. Though year-to-year internal climate variability may partially explain the appearance of these events, why they occurred dramatically more frequent remains elusive. We find that the rapid aerosol abatement in China triggers atmospheric circulation anomalies beyond its source region, driving a substantial mean surface warming in the NEP, which provides a favorable condition for extreme ocean warming events. Our findings provide an important insight into the mechanisms of the North Pacific ocean-atmosphere changes, highlighting the need to consider the exacerbated risks arising from a reduction in anthropogenic aerosol emissions in assessment of climate change impacts.
Pollution Paradox: How Cleaning Up Smog Drives Ocean Warming
Fred Pearce • May 28, 2024
New research indicates that the decline in smog particles from China’s air cleanups caused the recent extreme heat waves in the Pacific. Scientists are grappling with the fact that reducing such pollution, while essential for public health, is also heating the atmosphere...
https://e360.yale.edu/features/aerosols-warming-climate-change
----------------------------------------------
Hai Wang et al. 2024. Atmosphere teleconnections from abatement of China aerosol emissions exacerbate Northeast Pacific warm blob events. PNAS May 6, 2024 121 (21) e2313797121 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2313797121 https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2313797121
Significance
The period of 2010 to 2020 has witnessed the warmest Northeast Pacific (NEP) sea surface temperatures ever recorded, with several prolonged extreme ocean warming events. Though year-to-year internal climate variability may partially explain the appearance of these events, why they occurred dramatically more frequent remains elusive. We find that the rapid aerosol abatement in China triggers atmospheric circulation anomalies beyond its source region, driving a substantial mean surface warming in the NEP, which provides a favorable condition for extreme ocean warming events. Our findings provide an important insight into the mechanisms of the North Pacific ocean-atmosphere changes, highlighting the need to consider the exacerbated risks arising from a reduction in anthropogenic aerosol emissions in assessment of climate change impacts.
18margd
DW News @dwnews | 10:15 PM · Jun 1, 2024:
"There is no water in the pipeline, we all rely on this water tanker."
People in India are struggling with a water shortage amid a record-breaking heat wave.
1:30 (https://x.com/dwnews/status/1797089501992645116)
_________________________________
As reservoirs go dry, Mexico City and Bogotá are staring down ‘Day Zero’
Jake Bittle | May 23, 2024
Cape Town, which beat a water crisis in 2018, holds lessons for cities grappling with an El Niño-fueled drought.
...heat dome sitting atop Mexico is shattering temperature records in Central America, and both Central and South America are wasting beneath a drought driven by the climate phenomenon known as El Niño, which periodically brings exceptionally dry weather to the Southern Hemisphere. Droughts in the region have grown more intense thanks to warmer winter temperatures and long-term aridification fueled by climate change. The present dry spell has shriveled river systems in Mexico and Colombia and lowered water levels in the reservoirs that supply their growing cities. Officials in both cities have warned that, in June, their water systems might reach a “Day Zero” in which they fail altogether unless residents cut usage.
In warning about the potential for a Day Zero in the water system, both cities are referencing the famous example set by Cape Town, South Africa, which made global headlines in 2018 when it almost ran out of water. The city was months away from a total collapse of its reservoir system when it mounted an unprecedented public awareness campaign and rolled out strict fees on water consumption. These measures succeeded in pulling the city back from the brink...
https://grist.org/drought/mexico-city-bogota-water-day-zero-cape-town/
"There is no water in the pipeline, we all rely on this water tanker."
People in India are struggling with a water shortage amid a record-breaking heat wave.
1:30 (https://x.com/dwnews/status/1797089501992645116)
_________________________________
As reservoirs go dry, Mexico City and Bogotá are staring down ‘Day Zero’
Jake Bittle | May 23, 2024
Cape Town, which beat a water crisis in 2018, holds lessons for cities grappling with an El Niño-fueled drought.
...heat dome sitting atop Mexico is shattering temperature records in Central America, and both Central and South America are wasting beneath a drought driven by the climate phenomenon known as El Niño, which periodically brings exceptionally dry weather to the Southern Hemisphere. Droughts in the region have grown more intense thanks to warmer winter temperatures and long-term aridification fueled by climate change. The present dry spell has shriveled river systems in Mexico and Colombia and lowered water levels in the reservoirs that supply their growing cities. Officials in both cities have warned that, in June, their water systems might reach a “Day Zero” in which they fail altogether unless residents cut usage.
In warning about the potential for a Day Zero in the water system, both cities are referencing the famous example set by Cape Town, South Africa, which made global headlines in 2018 when it almost ran out of water. The city was months away from a total collapse of its reservoir system when it mounted an unprecedented public awareness campaign and rolled out strict fees on water consumption. These measures succeeded in pulling the city back from the brink...
https://grist.org/drought/mexico-city-bogota-water-day-zero-cape-town/
19margd
Heatstroke kills 33 polling staff in a state on last day of India election
Aljazeera | 2 June 2024
While several people have died during the intense heatwave, dozens dying in one day marks an especially grim toll...
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/6/2/heatstroke-kills-33-polling-staff-in-a-s...
_____________________________
Meanwhile, a year ago in Texas:
Texas governor signs bill rescinding water breaks as deadly heat grips state
Maanvi Singh | 23 Jun 2023
Measure ... will nullify ordinances enacted by Austin and Dallas that mandate 10-minute breaks for construction workers every four hours. It also prevents any other local governments from passing similar worker protections.
... the federal Occupational Safety and Health Administration (Osha) does not have a national heat protection standard. ...
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jun/23/greg-abbott-texas-governor-bill-...
___________________________
Dehydrated, nauseous, sunburned Floridians flood emergency rooms when temperatures rise
Cindy Krischer Goodman | June 1, 2024
State ranks second in the nation for heat-related 911 calls in May...
https://www.sun-sentinel.com/2024/06/01/overheated-floridians-flood-emergency-ro...
-------------------------------
Heat-Related EMS Activation Surveillance Dashboard {NEMSIS}
The Heat-Related EMS Activation Surveillance Dashboard, created in partnership between the HHS Office of Climate Change and Health Equity and the DOT National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, uses nationally submitted Emergency Medical Services (EMS) data to track EMS responses to people experiencing heat-related emergencies in the pre-hospital setting.
https://nemsis.org/heat-related-ems-activation-surveillance-dashboard/
Aljazeera | 2 June 2024
While several people have died during the intense heatwave, dozens dying in one day marks an especially grim toll...
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/6/2/heatstroke-kills-33-polling-staff-in-a-s...
_____________________________
Meanwhile, a year ago in Texas:
Texas governor signs bill rescinding water breaks as deadly heat grips state
Maanvi Singh | 23 Jun 2023
Measure ... will nullify ordinances enacted by Austin and Dallas that mandate 10-minute breaks for construction workers every four hours. It also prevents any other local governments from passing similar worker protections.
... the federal Occupational Safety and Health Administration (Osha) does not have a national heat protection standard. ...
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jun/23/greg-abbott-texas-governor-bill-...
___________________________
Dehydrated, nauseous, sunburned Floridians flood emergency rooms when temperatures rise
Cindy Krischer Goodman | June 1, 2024
State ranks second in the nation for heat-related 911 calls in May...
https://www.sun-sentinel.com/2024/06/01/overheated-floridians-flood-emergency-ro...
-------------------------------
Heat-Related EMS Activation Surveillance Dashboard {NEMSIS}
The Heat-Related EMS Activation Surveillance Dashboard, created in partnership between the HHS Office of Climate Change and Health Equity and the DOT National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, uses nationally submitted Emergency Medical Services (EMS) data to track EMS responses to people experiencing heat-related emergencies in the pre-hospital setting.
https://nemsis.org/heat-related-ems-activation-surveillance-dashboard/
20margd
Relics of a Warmer Past, Some Species May Be Suited to a Hotter Future
E360 Digest | May 30, 2024
...By the end of this century, the planet is expected to be around as warm as it was 130,000 years ago. Species that arose during this time would be able to withstand a hotter climate, scientists say. This is particularly relevant in the tropics, where heat is reaching new extremes.
Warming will diminish the variety of plants and animals residing in tropical lands, but by how much? Past research suggests these areas will see, on average, a 54 percent drop in the number of resident species. But a new modeling study, published in Nature Ecology and Evolution, puts that figure at 39 percent.
The study offers hope for some tropical species facing down a hotter future, though the findings are, researchers note, only a marginal improvement on previous estimates...
https://e360.yale.edu/digest/evolution-climate-adaptation-study
E360 Digest | May 30, 2024
...By the end of this century, the planet is expected to be around as warm as it was 130,000 years ago. Species that arose during this time would be able to withstand a hotter climate, scientists say. This is particularly relevant in the tropics, where heat is reaching new extremes.
Warming will diminish the variety of plants and animals residing in tropical lands, but by how much? Past research suggests these areas will see, on average, a 54 percent drop in the number of resident species. But a new modeling study, published in Nature Ecology and Evolution, puts that figure at 39 percent.
The study offers hope for some tropical species facing down a hotter future, though the findings are, researchers note, only a marginal improvement on previous estimates...
https://e360.yale.edu/digest/evolution-climate-adaptation-study
21margd
Why some wild animals are getting insomnia
Benji Jones | Jun 2, 2024
Scientists put sleep trackers on a bunch of wild pigs. The results reveal a troubling trend.
...A pair of new studies on mammals in Europe shows that extreme heat impairs their sleep, too, often significantly so. Wild boars in the Czech Republic, for example, slept 17 percent less during hot, summer days, compared to colder months, one of the papers found, “potentially leading to sleep deprivation.” The other showed that deer fawns in Ireland similarly had shorter and worse quality sleep on scorching days.
Among the only studies of sleep in wild animals, the research points to yet another way that climate change will likely reshape the natural world. As summers heat up, animals might find it harder to sleep in the habitats they call home, potentially weakening their immune systems and chances of survival. It may also push these creatures to new places, where they might spread disease and disrupt carefully balanced ecosystems....
https://www.vox.com/down-to-earth/353035/climate-change-sleep-wild-animals-heat
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Euan Mortlock et al. 2023. Sleep in the wild: the importance of individual effects and environmental conditions on sleep behaviour in wild boar. Proceedings of the Royal Society B, May 2024, Volume 291, Issue 2023
https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2023.2115 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspb.2023.2115
ABSTRACTt
... sleep in the wild boar (Sus scrofa) over an annual cycle. In support of the hypothesis that environmental conditions determine thermoregulatory challenges, which regulate sleep, we show that sleep quantity, efficiency and quality are reduced on warmer days, sleep is less fragmented in longer and more humid days, while greater snow cover and rainfall promote sleep quality. Importantly, this longest and most detailed analysis of sleep in wild animals to date reveals large inter- and intra-individual variation. Specifically, short-sleepers sleep up to 46% less than long-sleepers but do not compensate for their short sleep through greater plasticity or quality, suggesting they may pay higher costs of sleep deprivation. Given the major role of sleep in health, our results suggest that global warming and the associated increase in extreme climatic events are likely to negatively impact sleep, and consequently health, in wildlife, particularly in nocturnal animals.
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Euan Mortlock et al. 2024. Early life sleep in free-living fallow deer, Dama dama: the role of ontogeny, environment and individual differences. Animal Behaviour, Volume 211, May 2024, Pages 163-180. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.anbehav.2024.03.006 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0003347224000861#:~:text=Fall....
ABSTRACT
...19 free-ranging fallow deer fawns, Dama dama, during the first 5 weeks of life. Specifically, we examined how sleep developed, how it differed between and within individuals, and how it was affected by environmental conditions, using accelerometer-derived estimates of sleep and a Bayesian hierarchical modelling approach. We showed that sleep duration rapidly decreased and became more consolidated, quickly approaching an adult-like condition. Moreover, fawns exhibited consistent individual differences in sleep quantity, fragmentation and quality, as well as in the rate at which sleep developed. Finally, environmental conditions affecting thermoregulation mediated sleep behaviour; sleep time was reduced and was of lower quality on warmer days, and sleep quality was further compromised in more humid conditions but was higher with greater rainfall. While sleep ontogeny in free-ranging fawns is partially shaped by the environment, our study reveals previously unknown individual differences in sleep behaviour present from birth, and in the rate of sleep development. We suggest that such individual differences may represent pace-of-life syndromes and may have important consequences for individual fitness later in life.
Benji Jones | Jun 2, 2024
Scientists put sleep trackers on a bunch of wild pigs. The results reveal a troubling trend.
...A pair of new studies on mammals in Europe shows that extreme heat impairs their sleep, too, often significantly so. Wild boars in the Czech Republic, for example, slept 17 percent less during hot, summer days, compared to colder months, one of the papers found, “potentially leading to sleep deprivation.” The other showed that deer fawns in Ireland similarly had shorter and worse quality sleep on scorching days.
Among the only studies of sleep in wild animals, the research points to yet another way that climate change will likely reshape the natural world. As summers heat up, animals might find it harder to sleep in the habitats they call home, potentially weakening their immune systems and chances of survival. It may also push these creatures to new places, where they might spread disease and disrupt carefully balanced ecosystems....
https://www.vox.com/down-to-earth/353035/climate-change-sleep-wild-animals-heat
------------------------------------------
Euan Mortlock et al. 2023. Sleep in the wild: the importance of individual effects and environmental conditions on sleep behaviour in wild boar. Proceedings of the Royal Society B, May 2024, Volume 291, Issue 2023
https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2023.2115 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspb.2023.2115
ABSTRACTt
... sleep in the wild boar (Sus scrofa) over an annual cycle. In support of the hypothesis that environmental conditions determine thermoregulatory challenges, which regulate sleep, we show that sleep quantity, efficiency and quality are reduced on warmer days, sleep is less fragmented in longer and more humid days, while greater snow cover and rainfall promote sleep quality. Importantly, this longest and most detailed analysis of sleep in wild animals to date reveals large inter- and intra-individual variation. Specifically, short-sleepers sleep up to 46% less than long-sleepers but do not compensate for their short sleep through greater plasticity or quality, suggesting they may pay higher costs of sleep deprivation. Given the major role of sleep in health, our results suggest that global warming and the associated increase in extreme climatic events are likely to negatively impact sleep, and consequently health, in wildlife, particularly in nocturnal animals.
-----------------------------------------------
Euan Mortlock et al. 2024. Early life sleep in free-living fallow deer, Dama dama: the role of ontogeny, environment and individual differences. Animal Behaviour, Volume 211, May 2024, Pages 163-180. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.anbehav.2024.03.006 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0003347224000861#:~:text=Fall....
ABSTRACT
...19 free-ranging fallow deer fawns, Dama dama, during the first 5 weeks of life. Specifically, we examined how sleep developed, how it differed between and within individuals, and how it was affected by environmental conditions, using accelerometer-derived estimates of sleep and a Bayesian hierarchical modelling approach. We showed that sleep duration rapidly decreased and became more consolidated, quickly approaching an adult-like condition. Moreover, fawns exhibited consistent individual differences in sleep quantity, fragmentation and quality, as well as in the rate at which sleep developed. Finally, environmental conditions affecting thermoregulation mediated sleep behaviour; sleep time was reduced and was of lower quality on warmer days, and sleep quality was further compromised in more humid conditions but was higher with greater rainfall. While sleep ontogeny in free-ranging fawns is partially shaped by the environment, our study reveals previously unknown individual differences in sleep behaviour present from birth, and in the rate of sleep development. We suggest that such individual differences may represent pace-of-life syndromes and may have important consequences for individual fitness later in life.
22margd
Anti-tobacco paradigm shift needed? (~ anti-tobacco)
Fergus Green et al. 2024. POLICY FORUM: No new fossil fuel projects: The norm we need. A social-moral norm against new fossil fuel projects has strong potential to contribute to achieving global climate goals. Science
30 May 2024. Vol 384, Issue 6699, pp. 954-957. DOI: 10.1126/science.adn6533 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adn6533
Abstract
Global production and use of fossil fuels continue to expand, making the goals of the Paris Agreement ever more difficult to achieve. Echoing calls made by climate advocates for years, the groundbreaking decision at the United Nations (UN) climate meeting in late 2023 (COP28) calls on parties “to contribute to…transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems.” The normative case for ultimately phasing out fossil fuels is strong, and in some cases, it is feasible to phase out projects before the end of their economic life. However, the movement should focus on a more feasible, yet crucial, step on the road to fossil fuel phaseout: stopping fossil fuel expansion. Proponents of ambitious climate action should direct policy and advocacy efforts toward building a global “No New Fossil” norm, encompassing exploration for and development of new fossil fuel extraction sites, and permitting and construction of new, large-scale fossil fuel–consuming infrastructure.
Fergus Green et al. 2024. POLICY FORUM: No new fossil fuel projects: The norm we need. A social-moral norm against new fossil fuel projects has strong potential to contribute to achieving global climate goals. Science
30 May 2024. Vol 384, Issue 6699, pp. 954-957. DOI: 10.1126/science.adn6533 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adn6533
Abstract
Global production and use of fossil fuels continue to expand, making the goals of the Paris Agreement ever more difficult to achieve. Echoing calls made by climate advocates for years, the groundbreaking decision at the United Nations (UN) climate meeting in late 2023 (COP28) calls on parties “to contribute to…transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems.” The normative case for ultimately phasing out fossil fuels is strong, and in some cases, it is feasible to phase out projects before the end of their economic life. However, the movement should focus on a more feasible, yet crucial, step on the road to fossil fuel phaseout: stopping fossil fuel expansion. Proponents of ambitious climate action should direct policy and advocacy efforts toward building a global “No New Fossil” norm, encompassing exploration for and development of new fossil fuel extraction sites, and permitting and construction of new, large-scale fossil fuel–consuming infrastructure.
