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"America has become a society devoid of understanding of the power of logic and numbers. All too often, we rely on our intuition or on empty statistics to formulate opinions about ourselves and our world. As a result of inadequate schooling in the art of reasoning, we have become a people unable to make truly logical decisions, intimidated by numbers, and too passive to reverse this disturbing trend." "The Power of Logical Thinking addresses these concerns, illustrating how you can reason better, how numbers are used against you, and how your vote may be affected. Marilyn vos Savant writes, "We can't trust out intuitions, our statisticians, or our politicians. The 1992 presidential campaign is a case in point. Numbers were used, abused, and misused by the candidates as never before in the history of our country. Voters were easily manipulated, setting a precedent for years to come. Will it happen again? Or will we be more prepared for future elections?"" "Part One of The Power of Logical Thinking explains the most provocative of the counterintuitive problems that Marilyn vos Savant has encountered in recent years, such as the now classic "Monty Hall Dilemma," the improbability of winning the lottery, and much more. Part Two shows how statistics have quietly become a tool of persuasion instead of education. In addition to exploring puzzles and paradoxes, these sections explains the underlying reasoning to help you answer questions such as which surgery should you choose? what are your odds of having breast cancer? do drug-testing and AIDS-testing give you yes/no answers?" "In Part Three, vos Savant illustrates how our votes are affected, with examples of selective logic, specious reasoning, and outright sophistry collected from the campaigns of Bill Clinton, George Bush, and Ross Perot."--BOOK JACKET.Title Summary field provided by Blackwell North America, Inc. All Rights Reserved… (plus d'informations)
Columnist and researcher, Vos Savant writes about political speech and statistical citation which are intentionally used deceptively by politicians and government officials. For me, the most important section was that on the Facts About Fallacies which reviewed basic logical fallacies. Worth reading for understanding mass media manipulation and governmental propaganda. ( )
An easy, and very enlightening, read. So much of our lives is dictated by statistics. Prognostications of likely behavior, or events, based on a studied sample. Marilyn vos Savant explains how to move from passive acceptance of alleged facts, to truly thinking through information. I especially enjoy Part Two of the book, How Numbers and Statistics Can Mislead, with its explanations of statistics, and fallacies in reasoning. No math degree needed. ( )
Four out of ten.
The logical problems and explanations brought up to demonstrate the issue in hand (ie. the Monty Hall dilemma) were interesting enough. Dull and repetetive after that... ( )
Informations provenant du Partage des connaissances anglais.Modifiez pour passer à votre langue.
The war was started as the result of a mistaken intuitive 'calculation' which transcended mathematics. We believed with a blind fervor that we could triumph over scientific weapons and tactics by means of our mystic will .... The characteristic reliance on intuition by Japanese had blocked the objective cognition of the modern world. -- Nyozekan Hasegawa The Lost Japan, 1952
Dédicace
Informations provenant du Partage des connaissances anglais.Modifiez pour passer à votre langue.
Dedicated to Martin Gardner. Americas most beloved mathematician-and mine, too.
Premiers mots
Informations provenant du Partage des connaissances anglais.Modifiez pour passer à votre langue.
Although we shouldn't underestimate the damage caused by reliance on intuition, our personal experience with it often takes a more prosaic form.
Citations
Derniers mots
Informations provenant du Partage des connaissances anglais.Modifiez pour passer à votre langue.
And it is the power of logical thinking that enables good hearts to make good wishes.
"America has become a society devoid of understanding of the power of logic and numbers. All too often, we rely on our intuition or on empty statistics to formulate opinions about ourselves and our world. As a result of inadequate schooling in the art of reasoning, we have become a people unable to make truly logical decisions, intimidated by numbers, and too passive to reverse this disturbing trend." "The Power of Logical Thinking addresses these concerns, illustrating how you can reason better, how numbers are used against you, and how your vote may be affected. Marilyn vos Savant writes, "We can't trust out intuitions, our statisticians, or our politicians. The 1992 presidential campaign is a case in point. Numbers were used, abused, and misused by the candidates as never before in the history of our country. Voters were easily manipulated, setting a precedent for years to come. Will it happen again? Or will we be more prepared for future elections?"" "Part One of The Power of Logical Thinking explains the most provocative of the counterintuitive problems that Marilyn vos Savant has encountered in recent years, such as the now classic "Monty Hall Dilemma," the improbability of winning the lottery, and much more. Part Two shows how statistics have quietly become a tool of persuasion instead of education. In addition to exploring puzzles and paradoxes, these sections explains the underlying reasoning to help you answer questions such as which surgery should you choose? what are your odds of having breast cancer? do drug-testing and AIDS-testing give you yes/no answers?" "In Part Three, vos Savant illustrates how our votes are affected, with examples of selective logic, specious reasoning, and outright sophistry collected from the campaigns of Bill Clinton, George Bush, and Ross Perot."--BOOK JACKET.Title Summary field provided by Blackwell North America, Inc. All Rights Reserved
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