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When Victory Is Not an Option: Islamist Movements in Arab Politics

par Nathan J. Brown

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Throughout the Arab world, Islamist political movements are joining the electoral process. This change alarms some observers and excites other. In recent years, electoral opportunities have opened, and Islamist movements have seized them. But those opportunities, while real, have also been sharply circumscribed. Elections may be freer, but they are not fair. The opposition can run but it generally cannot win. Semiauthoritarian conditions prevail in much of the Arab world, even in the wake of the Arab Spring. How do Islamist movements change when they plunge into freer but unfair elections? How do their organizations (such as the Muslim Brotherhood) and structures evolve? What happens to their core ideological principles? And how might their increased involvement affect the political system?In When Victory Is Not an Option, Nathan J. Brown addresses these questions by focusing on Islamist movements in Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, and Palestine. He shows that uncertain benefits lead to uncertain changes. Islamists do adapt their organizations and their ideologies do bend-some. But leaders almost always preserve a line of retreat in case the political opening fizzles or fails to deliver what they wish. The result is a cat-and-mouse game between dominant regimes and wily movements. There are possibilities for more significant changes, but to date they remain only possibilities.… (plus d'informations)
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Brown laments analogy mongers but this is basic to analyzing complex situations. Then, he wants to point out parallels to Christian Democratic movements in 19th Century Europe as operating in quasi-authoritarian situations, true enough, but no one, Brown included, necessarily views Islamist Middle Eastern countries as eventually developing into mostly stable democracies as Western Europe did. Thus, I am not sure the models will help him or advance his analysis to as great an extent as he would like.

Brown does better address why democracy is so acceptable for Islamists, but as such, it works against his central thesis explaining the intricacies of a focused vanguard of religionists in elections. The very lack of commitment to liberal, democratic ideals, so characteristic of Christian Democracy, is what distinguishes the facade of Islamists in democratic elections. He perceptively points out how Islamists can not agree to liberal, Republican ideals and therefore are not working towards a functional, liberal democracy in any of the countries in question, most notably Egypt following the election of Muslim Brotherhood leaders Mohammed Morsi. The only constitution that counts is the Koran.

Most helpfully, he does point out that discussions of a constitution, individual liberty, the role of women, and the treatment of other religions, and minorities is governed by sharia law and thus any Islamist government is not likely to evolve as a liberal, Western-style system.
  gmicksmith | Oct 30, 2012 |
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Throughout the Arab world, Islamist political movements are joining the electoral process. This change alarms some observers and excites other. In recent years, electoral opportunities have opened, and Islamist movements have seized them. But those opportunities, while real, have also been sharply circumscribed. Elections may be freer, but they are not fair. The opposition can run but it generally cannot win. Semiauthoritarian conditions prevail in much of the Arab world, even in the wake of the Arab Spring. How do Islamist movements change when they plunge into freer but unfair elections? How do their organizations (such as the Muslim Brotherhood) and structures evolve? What happens to their core ideological principles? And how might their increased involvement affect the political system?In When Victory Is Not an Option, Nathan J. Brown addresses these questions by focusing on Islamist movements in Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, and Palestine. He shows that uncertain benefits lead to uncertain changes. Islamists do adapt their organizations and their ideologies do bend-some. But leaders almost always preserve a line of retreat in case the political opening fizzles or fails to deliver what they wish. The result is a cat-and-mouse game between dominant regimes and wily movements. There are possibilities for more significant changes, but to date they remain only possibilities.

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