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It Ain't Over 'Til It's Over: The Baseball Prospectus Pennant Race Book

par Baseball Prospectus

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Pennant races are arguably the most important aspect of baseball. Players, teams, and franchises are all after one goal: to win the pennant and get into the post-season. But what really determines who wins? Statistical analyses of baseball abound: different ways of breaking down everyone's individual performance, from hitters and pitchers to managers and even owners. But surprisingly, team success-what makes some teams winners over an entire season-has never been looked at with the same statistical rigor. InIt Ain't Over 'Til It's Over, The Baseball Prospectus Team of Experts introduce the Davenport Method of deciding which races were the most dramatic-the closest, the most volatile-and determine the ten greatest races of modern baseball history. They use these key races (and a few others) to answer the main question: What determines who wins? How important are such things as mid-season trades, how much a manager overworks his pitchers, and why teams have winning and losing streaks? Can one player carry a team? Can one bad player ruin a team? Can one bad play ruin a team's chances? This fascinating and illuminating book will change your perception of the game.… (plus d'informations)
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3 sur 3
Much better-written than Baseball Between the Numbers--I would never call this one dreary as I would the earlier book. But still not as good as it really ought to be given the compelling stories here. The Baseball Prospectus folks seem to assume you've read and know well the previous literature (particularly Bill James) on many of these pennant race stories (for instance, events and people that this book doesn't describe are obliquely referred to as if they had been). The Prospectus folks have insights, but most of them don't have the gift of storytelling. When there is a single framework to hang all their insights on (like the Red Sox run to the World Series in Mind Game) this inability doesn't much matter--the one story tells itself through a process of agglomeration and the contributions of the couple of writers who *are* gifted storytellers.

When, as here, there are literally dozens of disparate stories to tell, this failing begins to tell. ( )
  ehines | Aug 18, 2013 |
Not a ton of ground-breaking analysis here (and if I have to sit through one more explanation of Davenport translations, I swear to God), but the writing is very nice, and each pennant race makes for a great little short story. "Years later, [Dressen] told Red Barber that the only thing he would have done differently would have been to put Campanella in to catch despite his injury, "because he would have gotten Newcombe through"--who knows, perhaps with a tissue transplant.""The Satchel Paige...who was so carefree and confident that he was known to wave his defense off the field and retire the batters without the aid of fielders.""Revered by Zimmer as a gamer, Hobson played the field despite bone chips that locked up his elbow when he threw and--cringe!--had to be rearranged after each play. He made 43 errors, was 21 runs below average, and fielded .899, becoming the first regular to break the .900 barrier since 1916, when gloves were little more than padded mittens." ( )
  Patrick311 | Jul 15, 2011 |
Examines what makes a great pennant race, using Prospectus’ various formulas and strong narrative techniques to detail 14 races. Some profanity, and sexual and drug references; heavy statistics and formulas in a few sections.
  chosler | Jan 20, 2009 |
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Pennant races are arguably the most important aspect of baseball. Players, teams, and franchises are all after one goal: to win the pennant and get into the post-season. But what really determines who wins? Statistical analyses of baseball abound: different ways of breaking down everyone's individual performance, from hitters and pitchers to managers and even owners. But surprisingly, team success-what makes some teams winners over an entire season-has never been looked at with the same statistical rigor. InIt Ain't Over 'Til It's Over, The Baseball Prospectus Team of Experts introduce the Davenport Method of deciding which races were the most dramatic-the closest, the most volatile-and determine the ten greatest races of modern baseball history. They use these key races (and a few others) to answer the main question: What determines who wins? How important are such things as mid-season trades, how much a manager overworks his pitchers, and why teams have winning and losing streaks? Can one player carry a team? Can one bad player ruin a team? Can one bad play ruin a team's chances? This fascinating and illuminating book will change your perception of the game.

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