A pioneering contribution to the literature, this book studies welfare dependence among families eligible for assistance under Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC), the most controversial income-maintenance program in the nation. In contrast to most works in this area, which rely solely on household data, Vicky Albert uses aggregate data and time-series forecasting techniques to analyze the movement of low-income families to and from welfare. Through Albert's longitudinal perspective and close analysis of such factors as changing welfare policies, labor-market conditions, and demographics, a broad picture of the dynamics of welfare receipt emerges. Particular attention is given to the effects of recent welfare policy shifts brought about by the Reagan administration.Albert's study performs three major functions: descriptive, modeling, and forecasting. She thoroughly analyzes the welfare system and its policies, examines trends in AFDC need and benefit standards, and compares California's AFDC program with those of other states. Albert then develops an analytic structure for investigating determinants of change in California's welfare caseload. Finally, the model is used to predict consequences for the welfare caseload under alternative assumptions about external developments. Numerous tables and figures amplify points made in the discussion. An excellent supplemental text for courses in social welfare, public policy, and welfare ecomomics, this book adds an important new dimension to the continiuing debate on the relative merits of the AFDC program. It should be read by anyone involved in policy-making for administration of the welfare system.