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The Subprime Solution: How Today's Global Financial Crisis Happened, and What to Do about It

par Robert J. Shiller

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The subprime mortgage crisis has already wreaked havoc on the lives of millions of people and now it threatens to derail the U.S. economy and economies around the world. In this trenchant book, best-selling economist Robert Shiller reveals the origins of this crisis and puts forward bold measures to solve it. He calls for an aggressive response--a restructuring of the institutional foundations of the financial system that will not only allow people once again to buy and sell homes with confidence, but will create the conditions for greater prosperity in America and throughout the deeply interconnected world economy. Shiller blames the subprime crisis on the irrational exuberance that drove the economy's two most recent bubbles--in stocks in the 1990's and in housing between 2000 and 2007. He shows how these bubbles led to the dangerous overextension of credit now resulting in foreclosures, bankruptcies, and write-offs, as well as a global credit crunch. To restore confidence in the markets, Shiller argues, bailouts are needed in the short run. But he insists that these bailouts must be targeted at low-income victims of subprime deals. In the longer term, the subprime solution will require leaders to revamp the financial framework by deploying an ambitious package of initiatives to inhibit the formation of bubbles and limit risks, including better financial information; simplified legal contracts and regulations; expanded markets for managing risks; home equity insurance policies; income-linked home loans; and new measures to protect consumers against hidden inflationary effects. This powerful book is essential reading for anyone who wants to understand how we got into the subprime mess--and how we can get out. In a new preface to this powerful book, Shiller discusses the development of the crisis in relation to the ideas presented in The Subprime Solution.… (plus d'informations)
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Shiller of the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index that's so closely watched. Shiller published this book in mid 2008, before much of the bad stuff happened. The books is very short with very large margins, so it's a quick read. I'll simply link to Ian Ayres review of the book on the Freakonomics blog as he has valid criticisms.

Shiller basically believes that information is the #1 solution for keeping such a crisis from occuring again. The government should basically subsidize financial education, subsidize financial advisers (have them charge a standard hourly fee), etc. Establish national databases of personal and business financial data so that things like FICO scores aren't so important.

He supports the creation of more markets-- home equity insurance, income insurance (in case you lose your job), continuously worked-out mortgages, and an expanded derivatives market (which he helped create) for things like home values in cities.

About the only thing that the Administration seems to have proposed that fits with what Shiller suggested is the sort of "Consumer Lending Safety Commission" that would regulate home loans, credit cards, student loans, etc.

Overall, a good simple economist's view to preventing future crises.

I give it 2.5 stars out of 5. A quick read, you should check it out sometime. ( )
  justindtapp | Jun 3, 2015 |
I picked up in "The Subprime Solution" after hearing Shiller on a Bloomberg Radio podcast.

In his first chapter, Shiller alludes to the Case-Shiller index, which he helped create. Shiller is a believer in the power of information flow through markets to create more efficient and stable outcomes.

I have to say I found his prescriptions unconvincing. One thing they assume is that consumer education will somehow create more rational outcomes. I think his read of human behavior is over-simple and optimistic. Further, it wasn't clear that his idea of efficient futures markets for housing prices would have any effect in mitigating a bubble. It should be noted that there were short sellers in the current real estate market, but that they made a lot of their money shorting banks, not housing. The problem with the futures market is that is has no tie-back to reality. A futures market in winter wheat, for example, is connected to the actual market for winter wheat via physical delivery. Even if this forms only a small faction of the actual volume, it is enough to make the futures market an important pricing mechanism. No analogous feature exists for housing.

This is a well-written account of how markets went wrong with a few interesting ideas, but in the end, his solutions are relatively unconvincing. ( )
  DavidGoldsteen | Apr 17, 2009 |
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The subprime mortgage crisis has already wreaked havoc on the lives of millions of people and now it threatens to derail the U.S. economy and economies around the world. In this trenchant book, best-selling economist Robert Shiller reveals the origins of this crisis and puts forward bold measures to solve it. He calls for an aggressive response--a restructuring of the institutional foundations of the financial system that will not only allow people once again to buy and sell homes with confidence, but will create the conditions for greater prosperity in America and throughout the deeply interconnected world economy. Shiller blames the subprime crisis on the irrational exuberance that drove the economy's two most recent bubbles--in stocks in the 1990's and in housing between 2000 and 2007. He shows how these bubbles led to the dangerous overextension of credit now resulting in foreclosures, bankruptcies, and write-offs, as well as a global credit crunch. To restore confidence in the markets, Shiller argues, bailouts are needed in the short run. But he insists that these bailouts must be targeted at low-income victims of subprime deals. In the longer term, the subprime solution will require leaders to revamp the financial framework by deploying an ambitious package of initiatives to inhibit the formation of bubbles and limit risks, including better financial information; simplified legal contracts and regulations; expanded markets for managing risks; home equity insurance policies; income-linked home loans; and new measures to protect consumers against hidden inflationary effects. This powerful book is essential reading for anyone who wants to understand how we got into the subprime mess--and how we can get out. In a new preface to this powerful book, Shiller discusses the development of the crisis in relation to the ideas presented in The Subprime Solution.

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