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Chargement... Are Capital Inflows Expansionary or Contractionary? Theory, Policy Implications, and Some Evidencepar Olivier Blanchard
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The workhorse open-economy macro model suggests that capital inflows are contractionarybecause they appreciate the currency and reduce net exports. Emerging market policy makershowever believe that inflows lead to credit booms and rising output, and the evidence appears to gotheir way. To reconcile theory and reality, we extend the set of assets included in theMundell-Fleming model to include both bonds and non-bonds. At a given policy rate, inflows maydecrease the rate on non-bonds, reducing the cost of financial intermediation, potentially offsettingthe contractionary impact of appreciation. We explore the implications theoretically andempirically, and find support for the key predictions in the data. Aucune description trouvée dans une bibliothèque |
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