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Chargement... Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (2015)par Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner
   Actuellement, il n'y a pas de discussions au sujet de ce livre.  yates9 | Feb 28, 2024 |   En ja, dat is er. Supervoorspellers gaat zowel over de techniek van het voorspellen als wel de persoonlijke eigenschappen die daar bij horen. Daar steek je altijd iets van op als crisismanager. Ik heb daarom geprobeerd de rode lijn uit het boek te filteren en hier samen te vatten. Dat viel niet mee. Tetlock gooit op z’n zachtst gezegd alles door elkaar. Hij maakt er een soort puzzel van, wier stukjes weliswaar allemaal aanwezig zijn maar niet persé in een logische volgorde. Hij lardeert dat dan weer wel met tal van voorbeelden en anekdotes uit zijn onderzoekspraktijk, wat het een levendig boek om te lezen maakt. Dus zeker geen verloren tijd, al helemaal niet als hij tussen de regels door over de controverse tussen Klein en Kahneman begint (failure to disagree, eerder besproken in dit blog) en zijn gedachten laat varen over Black Swans en Taleb’s mening over Supervoorspellers. Dat vind ik persoonlijk leuke extra’s die dit boek verbindt met blogs als Kahneman’s Ruis, Het Onwaarschijnlijkheidsprincipe, Taleb’s Toeval en The Black Swan. Lees de hele bespreking op mijn boekenblog https://www.rizoomes.nl/psychologie/supervoorspellers-een-boekrecensie/ (  ) Rizoomes | Feb 25, 2024 | conflict | Aug 31, 2022 |  ) Paul_S | Aug 2, 2021 |  ) brakketh | Jul 31, 2021 | aucune critique | ajouter une critique
"From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people--including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer--who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn't require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future--whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life--and is destined to become a modern classic"-- Aucune description trouvée dans une bibliothèque |
Critiques des anciens de LibraryThing en avant-premièreLe livre Superforecasting de Philip E. Tetlock était disponible sur LibraryThing Early Reviewers.  Discussion en coursAucunCouvertures populaires
 Google Books — Chargement...GenresClassification décimale de Melvil (CDD)303.49Social sciences Social Sciences; Sociology and anthropology Social Processes Social change Social forecastsClassification de la Bibliothèque du CongrèsÉvaluationMoyenne: (3.94)
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A much more important ans very interesting final few chapters on the broader space of trying to predict events in the future, probability distributions, and complexity. The question about the limits of forecasting is commendable and perhaps one of the most important points of the book. We can talk about knowledge and prediction within a certain timeframe but beyond that it is a completely different situation and the game changes and its impossible to really
look ahead that far. (