Russia: international moves, West responses, Putin's revenge & future...Ukraine 8

Iuliia Mendel @IuliiaMendel | 1:53 AM · Jun 28, 2022
Former Spokesperson to President @ZelenskyyUa
Author: The Fight of Our Lives http://shorturl.at/gsOW3
@PostOpinionscontributor
proud Ukrainian🇺🇦 ...

Russians are demanding Ukrainian doctors to resign in occupied Kherson.
Instead they offer to sign new contract with the Russian Federation.
If not - they say they’ll bring enough 🇷🇺doctors.

They switch the education into 🇷🇺one, bring 🇷🇺 banks, force to switch to the ruble

They force occupied UA to use Russian banks and rubles?

Max Fras @maxfras | 7:15 PM · Jun 30, 2022:
The new 100-ruble banknote introduced today by Russia's Central Bank, featuring the Soviet Soldier Memorial, cannot be introduced into circulation as ATMs & cash registers cannot be updated to recognise new notes due to sanctions. 100% of Russia's cash registers are imported.

Photo of new banknote (https://twitter.com/maxfras/status/1542648043463401480/photo/1)

Moving to tears - the EU flag is been brought to the plenary hall of @ua_parliament. To stay.
0:35 ( https://twitter.com/MattiMaasikas/status/1542762739143254016 )

- Matti Maasikas @MattiMaasikas | 2:51 AM · Jul 1, 2022
Ambassador of the European Union to Ukraine, Head of @EUDelegationUA . Previously European affairs in @MFAestonia .

Taking on Putin through porn: how Russians are finding out the truth about Ukraine (Guardian)

Little moderation, huge audiences and biddable owners make porn and gambling sites a safe haven from censors...

Anyone who wants to help the Russian (and other) people evade the censors, should go here: https://snowflake.torproject.org/

Bill Browder (Magnitsky Act) @Billbrowder | 8:13 AM · Jul 3, 2022
Vladimir Kara-Murza, one of the bravest men alive, speaks from prison in the Washington Post. Please read and retweet. He’s given up his freedom to protest the war. It’s the least we can do for him and all the other Russians standing up to Putin

Opinion | Vladimir Kara-Murza: Prison doesn’t give me many views of the sun
June is my favorite month in Moscow, but I haven't been able to see much of it.
Vladimir Kara-Murza | July 1, 2022

...Since Vladimir Putin launched his invasion in February, more than 3,000 websites, both Russian and foreign, were blocked by the government censorship agency by early May for violating its order to only report “official information” — that is, the Kremlin’s propaganda message — about the war. More than 200 media outlets have been blocked or shut down altogether — among them Echo of Moscow radio, TV Rain and the newspaper Novaya Gazeta, which have stood as the last major bastions of media freedom in Russia. (Novaya Gazeta’s editor in chief, Dmitry Muratov, was last year’s co-recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize.)

...Putin has conducted a highly effective blitzkrieg against what remains of political freedoms in Russia, turning his regime from highly authoritarian to near-totalitarian almost overnight. ...Kremlin’s propaganda machine, which successfully manipulates tens of millions...The fact is that most Russians are not aware of the horrendous war crimes being committed by Putin’s forces in Ukraine.

Propaganda is not the only reason; repression is another. Anyone who publicly criticizes Putin’s war in Ukraine could face arrest and years of imprisonment — ... already more than 200 criminal cases connected to antiwar protests or the “distribution” of antiwar information — and more than 2,100 cases under the parallel defamation clause in the code of administrative offenses. ...more than 16,300 police detentions at antiwar protests across Russia since the start of the invasion.

Each of the thousands of Russian antiwar protesters is standing up not only for the people of Ukraine and for the international rule of law but also for the future of our own country. Each one is giving another reason to hope that a renewed, reformed post-Putin Russia can one day take its place in the community of democratic nations — and in a Europe that would finally become whole, free and at peace...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/07/01/vladimir-karamurza-letter-fro...
__________________________________________

Visegrád 24 @visegrad24 | 9:02 AM · Jul 3, 2022:
Aggregating and curating news, politics, current affairs, history and culture from the Visegrád countries.

The Polish Border Guard today announced that the number of Ukrainian refugees taken in by Poland has now crossed 4.5 million.
__________________________________________

Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien | 3:05 AM · Jul 3, 2022:
Professor of Strategic Studies, @univofstandrews, Author: How the War was Won, and Second Most Powerful Man in the World. Editor in Chief, War in History

It has now been 76 days since the Russians launched the Battle of the Dohnbas. This would make it one of the longest major battles in the 20th and 21st centuries. Many times longer than Kursk,e Bagration Normandy, Bulge, etc. Its much closer to WWI (Somme, Passchendale, Verdun)

And what has happened in the 2.5 months so far. Best to start with this map. Basically the Russians have dialled back enormously on their expectations (and frankly the expectations of others) that they would take a big chunk of Ukrainian territory.
Map ( https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1543491063733690372/photo/1 )

Instead after 11 weeks of combat, major losses and command changes, desperate attempts to raise forces and concentrating their firepower in a very small area, the Russians have compelled to Ukrainians to withdraw from Severodonetsk and Lysychansk.

Even that phrase needs to be emphasized--the Ukrainians have withdrawn in good order, as the Russians have never cut their communications. The map above (and indeed modern combined arms and Russian doctrine) would have had as a basic task an encirclement of Ukrainian forces

However the Russian Army is incapable of fulfilling the basic tasks of modern war. Instead its does incremental, slow advances, a kilometer at a time. It cant breakthrough, it cant exploit, it cant encircle. This is not a sign of an advanced military.

What has it taken. Well in the scheme of things, it might eventually take an amount of territory equivalent to greater London (think within the M25). Here are some maps that make it clear--imposed London on the region.
Maps
https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1543491077906251777/photo/1
https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1543491077906251777/photo/2

Had it been said on April 18, that the Russians would have taken such a small amount of territory, at cost, in 77 days, Been unable to encircle Ukrainian forces, etc, it would be have construed as a great Russian failure.

Now going forward, where are we? There seems to be a split between two groups. The Russians will take and hold group and the relative balance will shift group.

The Russians will take and hold group, mostly made up by those who were talking about how easily Russia would conquer Ukraine before Feb 24 and by Russianists who seem desperate to show Russia is a great power to make themselves seem relevant...

are saying that basically Russia can hold what it takes and that Ukraine has to take a peace deal that accepts that. This recent story in @washingtonpost has some of that
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/07/02/ukraine-russia-us-as...

Basically those who argue that Russia is a great power make this point. Needless to say I dont see Russia as a great power. Its a mid-ranking, deeply flawed power with nuclear weapons. You might have seen this.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/07/rethinking-russia-ukraine-inte...

As such I definitely believe that the Ukrainians, if properly supported, can drive the Russians back. Indeed the trajectory of the battle (and the constant dialling back of Russian goals) is part of a trend since day 1 of the Ukrainians gaining strength.

What we see is Russia getting increasingly weaker and relying on older systems. There tanks, APCs, missiles, etc, are all degrading as they try to make up losses/wastage by bringing older systems into operation.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/07/02/world/russia-ukraine-war-news

Even their soldiers are getting older. As Putin is terrified of bringing the realities of war to his people. The Duma just passed a bill raising the age for military service to 65! This is Volksturm WWII levels of desperation.

btw--applying WWII analogies on Soviet performance to Russia today dont work The USSR was able to increase production and raise millions of new troops, Russia today cant produce nearly enough modern equipment to cover its losses and is terrified to conscript society.

Otoh, Ukrainian strategy seems coherent. Continue attriting Russian forces until an attempt to push them back can be made. 'when the time is right'
https://kyivindependent.com/national/as-ukraine-withdraws-from-sievierodonetsk-b...

Now Ive made it clear that I think this is eminently possible, in this conversation with @EliotACohen
for instance.
2:00 ( https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1543491081307930628 )

Also, the intellectual trajectory of the war shows the Ukrainians adapting and improving and the Russian not. Snake Island one example. The counterrattacks near Kherson another. Smart, low casualty moves, getting closer and closer to a major objective. (The fight over Snake Island reveals something that seems to be a pattern in this war. If the Russians can’t rely on overwhelming artillery firepower, they struggle accomplish anything. In any engagement requiring initiative and adaptability, the Ukrainians seem to prevail.)

So that is why, imho, the Battle of the Donbas, indeed the war as a whole, even with halting Russian advances in the Donbas, has the strong potential to transform in Ukraine's direction going forward. The Ukrainian population sense this too.

WSJ: 89% of Ukrainians surveyed reject ceding land to Moscow, a position "built in large part on Ukrainian optimism about success on the battlefield" | Only 10% think it's unlikely that Ukraine will succeed in driving Russia out of territory it seized this year (https://www.wsj.com/articles/in-new-poll-89-of-ukrainians-reject-ceding-land-to-reach-peace-with-russia-11656504002)

‘The world is bloody messy’: Jacinda Ardern urges end to ‘black-and-white’ view of global conflict (Guardian)

The world is “bloody messy” but must take a step back from polarisation and black-and-white approaches to conflict, Jacinda Ardern has said in a wide-ranging speech in which she addressed the war in Ukraine and rising tensions with China. In a speech to foreign policy thinktank the Lowy Institute in Sydney, the New Zealand prime minister decried Russia’s “morally bankrupt” war in Ukraine – but also argued against the hardening of alliances, saying that the war should not be presented as a conflict of “democracy v autocracy” or be seen as an inevitable direction for other tensions between competing nations. “In taking every possible action to respond to Russia’s aggression and to hold it to account, we must remember that fundamentally this is Russia’s war,” she said... “And while there are those who have shown overt and direct support … who must also see consequences for their role, let us not otherwise characterise this as a war of the west vs Russia. Or democracy v autocracy. It is not. “Nor should we naturally assume it is a demonstration of the inevitable trajectory in other areas of geostrategic contest”... She also called for countries not to become myopically focused on military security, and miss the major threat that climate change and economic fragility posed to the Pacific. “While we all have a concern – and rightly so – about any moves towards militarisation of our region, that must surely be matched by concern for those who experienced the violence of climate change,” she said...

Oxana Shevel 🇺🇦👊🚜🌻 @OxanaShevel | 12:58 AM · Jul 6, 2022:
Prof @TuftsPoliSci. Also @DCRES_Harvard, @HURI_Harvard, @ponarseurasia, @AAUS_says
I work on Ukraine, Russia, nationalism, citizenship, memory, religion.

How many times Putin & his cronies have to say that their ultimate goal is elimination of Ukrainian sovereignty & identity before western “peacemakers” will finally believe them & stop living in la-la land where giving in parts of 🇺🇦 to 🇷🇺 can bring lasting peace?

Quote Tweet
ISW @TheStudyofWar · Jul 5
The Institute for the Study of War is a policy research organization focused on U.S. national security.

#Russian Security Council Secretary #Patrushev restated #Putin’s initial objectives for #Ukraine, suggesting that the #Kremlin retains maximalist objectives including regime change and territorial expansion far beyond the #Donbas.

Read the latest:
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 5
Jul 5, 2022 - Press ISW (Institute for Study of War)
...Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev stated on July 5 that the Russian military operation in Ukraine will continue until Russia achieves its goals of protecting civilians from “genocide,” “denazifying” and demilitarizing Ukraine, and obliging Ukraine to be permanently neutral between Russia and NATO—almost exactly restating the goals Russian President Vladimir Putin announced in his February 24 speech justifying the war...
http://isw.pub/RusCampaignJuly5

Show this thread ( https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1544486913532469248 )

Maps
https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1544486913532469248/photo/1
https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1544486913532469248/photo/2
https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1544486913532469248/photo/3
https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1544486913532469248/photo/4

Russia-Ukraine war: Moscow politician gets 7 years for denouncing war (BBC)

A Moscow councillor has been jailed for seven years for speaking out against Russia's war in Ukraine - in what is said to be the first full jail term under new laws targeting dissent. Alexei Gorinov, 60, was arrested in April after he was filmed criticising the invasion in a city council meeting. Under the post-invasion law, anyone who spreads "fake news" about the military faces up to 15 years in jail. Russians are banned from using the word war to describe the invasion. President Vladimir Putin has instead coined the phrase "special military operation", although he spoke of the "war in the Donbas" in remarks to parliamentary leaders on Thursday. Human rights activist Pavel Chikov said Gorinov's sentence was the first jail term under the new law. Until now judges have only handed down a fine or a suspended sentence...

Of course, what's happening in Ukraine was predictable, and was predicted years ago.

For example:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/12/23/ukraine-taiwan-red-lines/
'The United States, for its part, expanded its NATO alliance but initially sidestepped Ukraine. It recognized that Russia, sharing deep ties and a 1,426-mile land border with Ukraine, might oppose such a move by force. “Ukrainian entry into NATO is the brightest of all redlines for the Russian elite (not just Putin),” William J. Burns, then U.S. ambassador to Russia and current CIA director, cabled from Moscow in 2008. “I have yet to find anyone who views Ukraine in NATO as anything other than a direct challenge to Russian interests.” '

In a few months, the war will be over. Russia will have bitten off a large part of Ukraine, and will keep it. Captured American high-tech weaponry will be shipped off to Russian labs for analysis and the flattery of imitation.

Those Ukrainians remaining alive will have to do with whatever is left of their country.

Our Washington elite, both neocons and their liberal allies, will turn their attention to something else, and add Ukraine to Iraq and Afghanistan as examples of neo-con triumphs.

Maybe they can get us into a war with China. (I suppose you could argue, better now than in the future, as China grows in strength and we decline.)

All those newspaper and TV pieces about Putin having a fatal disease, about coups against him, all those YouTube videos of Russian tanks being destroyed by Ukrainian drones, will go down the memory hole.

Liberals will be able to stop playing the unfamiliar and uncomfortable role of 'patriots'.

As nationalism fades in Russia, the courageous liberal opposition there will be able to gingerly raise its head again, much weakened by the war, but still existing. (Anyone who wants to do something to actually help them should send a few dollars to these brave people:
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/in-print )

>11 Doug1943: Liberals will be able to stop playing the unfamiliar and uncomfortable role of 'patriots'.

Doug, are you playing the favourite game of redefining language to suit one's own political views? Do you think US "patriots" are only right wing gun-owning Trump-supporting warmongers? A more neutral definition seems to be "one who loves and supports their country". That certainly includes people of a "liberal", "centrist" or "leftist" persuasion, such as those who struggle to uphold democracy, the constitution and the rule of law, those who protest against fascism and racism, and those who oppose US military adventurism.

>11 Doug1943: In a few months, the war will be over. Russia will have bitten off a large part of Ukraine, and will keep it...Those Ukrainians remaining alive will have to do with whatever is left of their country.

Rather, having digested eastern Ukraine, like it did Crimea, Russia will come back for the rest of Ukraine (militarily, subversively, whatever), Moldova, and ______.

>12 John5918: I actually don't understand what the reference to "liberals" and "patriotism" is doing in a post about a war in the Ukraine. It seems from context that Doug must be talking about liberals in the US, but what has patriotism got to do with a war for the defense of another country, in which the US is only involved as a supporting player providing material aid?

I can only read this is as a gratuitous and irrelevant swipe, probably cribbed without thinking from one of his blogs. In other words, I wouldn't take it that seriously. If Doug had thought about it enough to mean anything by it, he would have realized that it was completely meaningless.

Bakhti Nishanov @b_nishanov | 11:06 AM · Jul 8, 2022
On the Hill with http://csce.gov (U.S. Helsinki Commission). Previously @IRIglobal
and freedomhouse.

The tension between Russia and Kazakhstan has now become a quiet yet easily observable conflict. Kazakhstan has been vocal in its support for Ukraine and president Tokayev told Putin to his face Kazakhstan won’t recognize the puppet states of DNR and LNR. Now Russia halted

shipments of Kazakh crude to Europe through a pipeline that goes over Russia. Instead of placating, Kazakhstan said it’s committed to energy security in Europe and that it will look for alternative shipment methods. Kazakhstan is also reportedly pulling out of a CIS committee

that was looking at setting up a common currency, including with Russia. Largely symbolic at this point but if confirmed, a very pointed move. One of the outcomes of this war will be a more confident and muscular Kazakhstan.

Africa: How Sweet Potato is Preventing the Global Wheat Crisis from Taking Root in Africa
Maria Andrade | 8 July 2022

Long before the Ukraine conflict began and sent wheat futures spiralling, scientists in Africa were experimenting with an alternative ingredient for baked goods: orange fleshed sweet potato (OFSP) puree.

These efforts to diversify staple products like bread and chapati in Malawi as well as Kenya, Rwanda and Uganda by replacing as much as 60% of wheat flour are now buffering African food systems.

The important lesson here for other African countries is that potato and sweet potato are more than crisis crops that can fill a gap between harvests within three months to tide over the poorest. Rather, these staple crops can be a cornerstone of a nutritious, diverse and resilient food system, which can withstand the shockwaves of market crises by avoiding an over-reliance on single commodities...

https://allafrica.com/stories/202207080303.html

We could have a good discussion on 'patriotism' which, incidentally, I don't count as an unqualified virtue, or even a neutral one, like 'courage', since under some circumstances it transforms into nasty nationalism and tribalism.

In other words, non-patriotic liberals are not, by that fact alone, 'bad', in my book. It depends on what they want to replace patriotism with -- in theory, it's usually some form of internationalism, loyalty to the human species, which I wouldn't disagree with as an abstract goal.

It's just that such loyalty requires a material basis, whcih at the current stage of evolution of our species, is the nation-state. People can't jump over their own heads.

But it's a complex issue and I won't go into it further on this thread, which is about Ukraine.

And I will grant that simply using the word 'liberals' here is too broad. I'm really aiming at that part of the Left which has, in the past, openly sneered at patriotism, refused to honor the flag or the national anthem-- one of them's in jail in Russia right now and is singing a different tune --
https://www.theamericanconservative.com/lessons-for-brittney-griner and who have then suddenly pulled the word 'traitor' out to use against my side. It makes me laugh, actually.

The New York City Council, lefties all, showed what they considered real patriotism to be, when they honored the Soviet spy Ethyl Rosenberg. Now they're 'patriots'. Uh huh.

Who's Brittney Griner...?

A quick look online shows a married lesbian from Texas who plays professional basketball. When she attempted to visit Russia to play her sport in the WNBA off-season, she was detained for entering the country with hash(ish) oil in her luggage. She's been held since February and is currently expected to be detained another five or six months, after which she might either have to pay a fine or officially serve a prison sentence as punishment. There's been talk of a prisoner exchange, Griner for a Russian arms dealer held in the USA.

Where's the humor in her situation, especially with Russia's current culture of violent homophobia that likely puts Griner's life in danger every day she's there, I don't even want to know.

>17 Doug1943: Police shot an unarmed black man SIXTY times in Akron, Ohio the other day. Worth taking a knee for, methinks. (If Griner did--news to me that she did.) In the interest of a more perfect union, y'know?

"Unarmed", huh?

"Akron, Ohio (CNN)A 25-year-old Black man suffered at least 60 wounds when police officers fatally shot him last week following a high-speed chase during which the man fired a gun out the driver's side window, authorities said.
Jayland Walker was unarmed at the time he was killed, though a gun was recovered from his car after the shooting"

But yes, this was a terrible racist event. Police should always assume that someone who shoots at them will have thrown away their gun. Actually, the police should not bother armed Blacks. Liberals should interact with them instead. Without body armor, of course, which is provocative.

And speaking of the hate-racist-America-until-I-need-it drug smuggler, who pleaded guilty -- Mr Biden's State Department said she was "wrongfully detained". Don't those stupid Russians know that Americans are allowed to break their laws if we want to? The arrogance of these little pip-squeak nations that don't know their place in the world!

>20 Doug1943:

Doug, I don't think your disparaging sarcasm does anything to help understand or prevent future occurrences of two tragic incidents in which human beings are suffering. Maybe it makes you feel better?

>20 Doug1943: "authorities said"

Lordy, I hope there are tapes. Oh wait, Akron police cars aren't outfitted with dashboard cameras...

Ohio Department of Transportation traffic cameras, however, show "only one cruiser in pursuit when Walker gets on Route 8 at Tallmadge Avenue at 12:31 a.m. (so one/two policeman's word on "gunshot", and details of the reported "testimony" have changed). A second cruiser follows within seconds (seconds!). As Walker passes Exchange Street, eight cruisers are following him. At 12:35 a.m. (four minutes later!), a camera at Interstate 77 and Archwood Avenue shows 10 cruisers following Walker into a residential area." https://www.beaconjournal.com/story/news/2022/06/30/jayland-walker-akron-police-... 7772578001/

(My own brown son was once pulled over one evening by half a dozen police cars--for a broken headlight. He asked why after the officer released him. "Backup," was the reply.)

Anyway, thousands are dying because Russia coveted Ukraine. Millions more may. Brittney Griner's is only one sad story and not the worst by a long shot: I think we've invested enough keystrokes on her for the moment. And there are other threads devoted to police interactions with people of color.

WHY DID YOU STAY IN UKRAINE?
1:21 ( https://twitter.com/Euan_MacDonald/status/1545848646931025921 )

>20 Doug1943: Just so you know, we can see that your responses support Russian governmental control over US citizens, in and out of each countries' borders.

As for how Griner's case fits into the larger conflicts, here's what I see.

Russia promotes gun violence in the USA and other countries 》 the violence disproportionately affects marginalized people who are general targets of Russia》 someone who's a symbol of American success (as well as a political activist against the Russian-backed violence?) gives, likely accidentally, Russia an opportunity to legally arrest her when she makes the mistake of accepting a professional offer on good faith 》 she's held indefinitely for trial despite openly admitting to the crime (carrying for what appears to be personal-use amounts of a drug that's often used medicinally into the country) 》 this opens up talk of a trade of her and maybe US Marine Paul Whelan for "Merchant of Death" Viktor Bout during the invasion of Ukraine, when Putin is likely itching for the infamous Russian arms dealer to supply Russian troops

Links: "Why Russia sees the NRA as key to manipulating American politics" (2018) and "Who is Viktor Bout, Russian arms dealer eyed in rumored prisoner swap?" (July 2022), The Washington Post

Get inside and wait: NYC releases PSA for what to do in case of nuclear attack
https://www.amny.com/news/nyc-releases-nuclear-attack-psa/

Lest one thinks Putin's Russia won't use famine as a weapon. Now and in future. In Ukraine and globally.

Holodomor
Голодомор

Photo: Starved peasants on a street in Kharkiv, 1933
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:GolodomorKharkiv.jpg

The Holodomor ... also known as the Terror-Famine... or the Great Famine,... was a man-made famine in Soviet Ukraine from 1932 to 1933 that killed millions of Ukrainians. The Holodomor famine was part of the wider Soviet famine of 1932–1933 which affected the major grain-producing areas of the country...

While scholars universally agree that the cause of the famine was man-made, whether or not the Holodomor constitutes a genocide remains in dispute.... Some historians conclude that the famine was planned and exacerbated by Joseph Stalin in order to eliminate a Ukrainian independence movement.... Others suggest that the famine arose because of rapid Soviet industrialisation and collectivization of agriculture....

Ukraine was one of the largest grain-producing states in the USSR, and as a result was hit particularly hard by the famine.... Early estimates of the death toll by scholars and government officials vary greatly.... A joint statement to the United Nations signed by 25 countries in 2003 declared that 7–10 million died.... However, current scholarship estimates a range significantly lower, with 3.5 to 5 million victims... The famine's widespread impact on Ukraine persists to this day...

Since 2006, the Holodomor has been recognized by Ukraine...alongside 15 other countries, as a genocide against the Ukrainian people carried out by the Soviet regime...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor

>27 margd:

It was quite the trend in days of yore. Britain famously used famines in Ireland and India, for example, and famines in many other European colonies hardly even get a mention. Even many of today's famines for which rock stars hold concerts and charities raise funds can be said to be human-made, either through conflict or politico-economic dynamics.

38 dead, 9 pulled out alive from shelled apartment building in eastern Ukraine
Reuters | July 12, 2022

...a Russian missile strike destroyed an apartment block in eastern Ukraine, killing at least 38 people.

...Military experts say Russia is using barrages like the one on Chasiv Yar in Donetsk province to pave the way for a renewed push for territory by ground forces, after claiming victory in Luhansk province on July 4. Both have been partly controlled by Russian-backed separatists since 2014.

Putin, who says he aims to hand control of Donbas to the separatists, on Monday eased rules for Ukrainians to acquire Russian citizenship.

A spokesman for Ukraine’s International Legion, a fighting unit of foreign troops, said Ukraine’s heavy artillery was outnumbered roughly eight to one by Russian guns.

...Further north in the second-largest city of Kharkiv, Russian artillery, rocket and tank attacks killed three and injured 31, including two children...

Moscow denies targeting civilians but many Ukrainian cities, towns and villages have been left in ruins. Since the Feb. 24 invasion, attacks on a theatre, shopping centre and railway station have caused many civilian deaths.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/38-dead-shelled-apartment-building-eastern-uk...

>28 John5918: Amartya Sen famously claimed that "no famine has ever taken place in the history of the world in a functioning democracy". This is a bit glib, but there's something underlying it: in a world with abundant resources and extensive and highly developed shipping and transport infrastructure, a famine is not a regrettable natural disaster but a massive political failure.

>30 kiparsky: a famine is not a regrettable natural disaster but a massive political failure

Oh definitely, I couldn't agree more. But I think the "functioning democracy" quote is far too glib. Didn't the European powers claim to be "functioning democracies" while they were manufacturing famines in their colonies? And wouldn't most of the western countries who are promoting the global economic system under which current famines are taking place also claim to be "functioning democracies"?

>31 John5918: No disagreement from me. I think that Sen's idea was that famine in some country was basically a national issue: if there is famine in Ethiopia, the problem is that Ethiopia's government is not managing resources correctly, and that this was in itself evidence that this was not a "functioning" democracy". Two issues that this brings up (probably among many):
1) it ignores the international politics that might starve a "functioning democracy" despite the best will and the best work of a legitimate and able government.
2) it's at least teetering on the edge of the "no true Scotsman" fallacy. I think it would be possible to salvage it from that fallacy with the right logic, but it does feel like it's really close to an assertion that "If a nation experiences famine, then its government is not a 'functioning' democracy".

'They started hunting for me': Ukraine politicians face torture in Russian detention (BBC)

Hundreds of Ukrainians, including civilians and local politicians, are being subjected to forced detentions by Russian forces in occupied regions, the UN has told the BBC. Officials said they had verified some 271 cases of forced detentions, with many of those seized facing torture. Separately, a Ukrainian politician told the BBC that he was waterboarded after being abducted by the Russian military...

Russia’s Dreams of a Red Sea Naval Base Are Scuttled—for Now (Foreign Policy)

Russia’s Red Sea naval ambitions appear to have run afoul of complicated internal dynamics within Sudan’s military leadership, which took power from a civilian-led transitional government following a coup in October last year. Although the deputy head of the country’s ruling military council, Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo—known as Hemeti—has embraced Moscow, the coup leader and de facto head of state, Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, has sought to avoid alienating the West and his other key allies in the region, including Egypt. “They’re very hesitant to give them access to this port. They continue to try and delay and do delay tactics,” said a U.S. intelligence official. “We see it as unlikely that the Port Sudan deal is going to be done anytime in the near future and that Russia is potentially looking to seek other options if Port Sudan doesn’t work out”...

Russia-Ukraine war: Priest detained for criticising Putin (BBC)

The officers who raided Father Ioann Kurmoyarov's home reportedly seized his mobile phone, a laptop, two icons, a cassock and a wooden cross. He was taken to a police station in St Petersburg, and allowed to make one phone call to his family. He told them he had been arrested. Father Ioann is believed to be the first priest imprisoned under laws introduced in Russia to punish those who spread information countering the Kremlin's narrative of the war. "I am a prisoner of conscience, suffering for my beliefs. I consider the charges against me and my detention to be illegal," says Father Ioann now in a statement he dictated to his lawyer in St Petersburg's Kresty Prison. Father Ioann adds that he is a Christian pacifist whose moral views are entirely based on the commandments of the Gospel and canons of the Russian Orthodox Church. "Blessed are the peacemakers for they will be called the sons of God," and "Thou shalt not kill," are among the quotes he includes in his statement...

New book's 2022 royalties go to reconstruction of Ukraine: Red Famine, Stalin's war on Ukraine, by Anne Applebaum

Navalny's Chief of Staff tweeted English version of his analysis of Putin's next steps, the Russian version of which went viral: ~ Putin's famine threat not having cowed Europe, winter freeze was next up. Putin will want to negotiate soon to secure the territories he now has. This will give Russian forces time to recover before taking all of Ukraine in a few years.

Meanwhile former Russian President / PM Medvedev threatened "Judgement Day" if Ukraine attacked Crimea. Don't know what triggered this outburst, but such a move might make sense for Ukraine on several counts: they'd come close to using NATO arms to attack Russia without violating NATO conditions. Russia would need to divert resources to its defense, a little difficult because of geography. Lots of fat, juicy infrastructure targets, the taking of which would not go unnoticed by Russian public.

Ukrainian President Zelensky fired heads of security and justice for collaboration w Russians. Wonder if any link to any Crimean plans that prompted Medvedev outburst? Zelensky must be at significant personal risk with such a personnel move...

Russia hits (2 missiles) Ukrainian Black Sea port (Odesa, port infrastructure) in wake (24h) of grain deal

https://www.haaretz.com

Lavrov: Russian goal to oust Ukrainian president
Times of India | 25 July 2022

toi.in/9UTKOY/a24gk

Russia gas cuts stoke Asia’s energy security fears
Liam Gibson | 29 Jul 2022

Analysts say disruptions to Nord Stream 1 pipeline could accelerate move away from liquified natural gas in the region.

...On Wednesday, Russia’s state-run energy giant Gazprom cut gas supplies to Europe via Nord Stream 1 to just 20 percent of the pipeline’s capacity.

The effect of soaring prices is not being felt equally across (Asia). While deep-pocketed nations like Japan and South Korea have the reserves to absorb the steep hikes, developing countries, particularly in South Asia, are struggling to keep the lights on...Pakistan...Sri Lanka...

“We see the risk of permanent LNG demand destruction in some countries that could hang on to coal and fuel oil and jump straight to renewables a few years down the road. That is unless more competitively priced LNG is made available to them soon,” (Kaushal Ramesh, a Singapore-based gas analyst at Rystad Energy) said...

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/7/29/russias-gas-cuts-throw-fuel-on-asias...

Michael Weiss 🌻🇺🇸🇮🇪 @michaeldweiss | 10:07 AM · Jul 29, 2022:
@yahoonews, @newlinesmag, @foreignoffpod. ISIS: Inside the Army of Terror: http://goo.gl/Jb6uEA. Next book is on the GRU

Another video has been uploaded to Telegram showing the Russians shot the Ukrainian in the head after castrating him. Sorry, no, I won't post a link.

Horrifying footage appears to show Russian captors castrating a Ukrainian prisoner of war
Michael Weiss and Niamh Cavanagh | July 28, 2022
https://news.yahoo.com/horrifying-footage-appears-to-show-russian-captors-castra...

Yaroslav Trofimov @yarotrof | 9:06 AM · Jul 29, 2022:
Chief Foreign-Affairs Correspondent of The Wall Street Journal. Author of Siege of Mecca.

Spokeswoman for Donetsk People’s Republic tells Russian military TV that 50 Ukrainian POWs from Azov, kept in a separate barrack, were killed in the Olenivka strike and many more injured. But, what a happy coincidence, none of the Russian guards were killed or injured. 🤔

1:29 ( https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1553004152489402368 )

>41 margd: Are Russians now videoing their rapes of Ukrainian women, too? JFC.

>43 aspirit: No doubt... You know, like ISIS beheadings. :(

Russia is plundering gold in Sudan to boost Putin's war effort in Ukraine (CNN)

Days after Moscow launched its bloody war on Ukraine, a Russian cargo plane stood on a Khartoum runway, a strip of tarmac surrounded by red-orange sand. The aircraft's manifest stated it was loaded with cookies. Sudan rarely, if ever, exports cookies. A heated debate transpired between officials in a back office of Khartoum International Airport. They feared that inspecting the plane would vex the country's increasingly pro-Russian military leadership. Multiple previous attempts to intercept suspicious Russian carriers had been stopped. Ultimately, however, the officials decided to board the plane. Inside the hold, colorful boxes of cookies stretched out before them. Hidden just beneath were wooden crates of Sudan's most precious resource. Gold. Roughly one ton of it. This incident in February -- recounted by multiple official Sudanese sources to CNN -- is one of at least 16 known Russian gold smuggling flights out of Sudan...

>43 aspirit: "all parties" :/

The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 5:07 PM · Jul 29, 2022:
⚡️ UN called on 'all parties' to avoid torture after Russian soldiers appear to cut off body parts of Ukrainian POW.

The UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission said it was “appalled” by the latest video, apparently showing castration and shooting of a captured Ukrainian soldier.
___________________________________________________

Olga Tokariuk @olgatokariuk | 4:36 PM · Jul 29, 2022:
Journalist. Words in @Monocle24, TIME, @newlinesmag, etc. @CEPA non-resident fellow. Disinfo researcher. Ex @Hromadske. In a special relationship with Italy

Two instances of execution of Ukrainian POWs by Russia in the last 48h. First, the videos emerge of a Ukrainian soldier castrated, shot dead and his body abused. Then, an explosion kills more than 50 Azovstal POWs in Olenivka, Russian-occupied territory. Why Russia does it?🧵

These are yet other acts of terrorism committed by Russia. They are meant to intimidate, provoke strong emotions - hate, rage - and force Ukrainians to abandon what they have so generously demonstrated so far: humanity. To treat Russian POWs the way they treated Ukrainian ones.

It is also a threat to all Ukrainians who are or will be in the military: do not get captured. You won't survive as a POW, you will be humiliated, abused, tortured and executed. I already see people saying that suicide is better than being taken as POW by Russians.

In case with Azovstal defenders, Russia again showed its ugly face: all agreements with it are worthless. The retreat from Azovstal was mediated by ICRC, yet Russia never let it access to POWs. In violation of Geneva conventions, they were tortured, forced to record 'confessions'

These executions of POWs provoke just more rage and defiance in Ukrainians, but Russia's calculus is to intimidate those in the West who already feel 'Ukraine fatigue' and want a settlement at all costs. The goal is to undermine support and pressure Ukraine into concessions

Russia behaves like this because of decades of impunity. Crimes it committed in Chechnya, Georgia, Ukraine were never punished. The closest we got to accountability was MH17 trial. There can be no peace in Europe without justice and Russia being punished for all its crimes.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Olga Tokariuk @olgatokariuk | 4:46 PM · Jul 29, 2022:
Russian 'diplomats' advocating for war crimes against a regular Ukrainian military unit (Azovstal). I hope to see the day when this becomes evidence in an international tribunal on Russia.
Image ( https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1553119866672087040/photo/1 )

END

A former Kremlin adviser is hospitalized in Europe.
Valerie Hopkins | July 31, 2022. Updated Aug. 1, 2022

Anatoly Chubais, who resigned as a top Kremlin adviser shortly after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, was hospitalized on Sunday in a western European country in critical condition with the symptoms of a rare neurological disorder. Mr. Chubais had suddenly grown numb in his hands and legs, his wife, Avodtya Smirnova, told the Russian journalist Ksenia Sobchak.

Mr. Chubais, 67, told Ms. Sobchak himself that he had been diagnosed with the rare Guillain-Barré syndrome, in which the body’s immune system attacks its nerves.

According to Ms. Sobchak’s news channel, specialists in “chemical protection suits” examined the room in which he suddenly became ill...

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/31/world/europe/putin-climate-czar-hospitalized....

>42 margd: No Russian guards harmed... Grave pre-dug...

Shashank Joshi @shashj | 2:12 PM · Jul 31, 2022:
Defence Editor at TheEconomist

Really important thread looking at satellite imagery of Olenivka. It raises further doubts over Russia’s claim that prisoners were killed in a Ukrainian strike. Graves dug prior to explosion, and prisoners housed in different part of complex to one where explosion occurred.

Quote Tweet
Oliver Alexander @OAlexanderDK · Jul 30
@Maxar image from the Olenivka Prison where 50 PoWs were killed seems shows possible graves dug near the north wall.

The possible graves appear to be open and recently dug on the 27th (2 days prior to the explosion) and covered on the 30th (corrected: 29th) (1 day after). twitter.com/BenDoBrown/sta…
Photos
https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1553519171845103616/photo/1
https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1553519171845103616/photo/2
___________________________________________________________

Benjamin Strick @BenDoBrown | 3:57 PM · Jul 30, 2022
NEW @Maxar satellite imagery from today (July 30) shows Olenivka Prison in Ukraine's Donetsk where more than 50 reportedly died following an attack at the prison on Friday morning (July 29).

Imagery shows before and after (27 & 29 of July). Location: 47.828530, 37.710802
Photos
https://twitter.com/BenDoBrown/status/1553469923262971904/photo/1
https://twitter.com/BenDoBrown/status/1553469923262971904/photo/2

I thought Ukraine might attack Crimea--distract Russian forces, plus get attention of regular Russians.
(Zelensky's not talking.)

Russian military experts and commentators reacting to the outcome of Novofyodorovka explosions in Crimea
Posted on 10 August 2022 | in Russian Accounts | by WarTranslated

https://wartranslated.com/russian-military-experts-and-commentators-reacting-to-...

‘We Knew What We Were Doing’: Captured Russian Soldiers Recount Their Invasion of Ukraine (Pass Blue)

Inside a detention center in Kyiv, a whole floor has been set aside for Russian prisoners of war. There are 16 cells, each holding two to four detainees. On the day of our visit, 17 captured Russians were waiting for their fate to be determined. The number of people on the floor keeps changing. Prisoners come and go every time there is an exchange between Ukraine and Russia. In one of the cells, three of the four prisoners were willing to talk to Geneva Solutions about the fateful moments that landed them in captivity and their hopes to return home one day...

Michael McFaul (Prof., frmr ambassador to Russia) McFaul | 7:18 PM · Aug 12, 2022
I protested against the apartheid dictatorship & in support of the ANC in opposition to my universities & government in the 1980s. There was no neutral position in that struggle. I see no principled neutral position now, when a dictator invades & tries to recolonize a democracy.

Quote Tweet
UkraineNews @Ukraine66251776 | 12:38 PM · Aug 11, 2022:
https://twitter.com/Ukraine66251776/status/1557768456002478082
South African Minister Naledi Pandor Lectures Secretary Antony J. Blinken and Tells Blinken:
"You cannot bully us on #Ukraine"
"#SouthAfrica shall not be forced to take sides in Ukraine-Russia Conflict"
World has changed US cannot bully any member of #BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa)
#UkraineRussianWar

2:07 ( https://twitter.com/McFaul/status/1558231596074803201 )

Germany and Canada are negotiating agreement on LNG (Liquified Natural Gas)
Cdn lakers/short sea shippers are investing in new tankers: https://www.algonet.com/the-company/news/news-release

Some customers will not soon trust Russia reliability as source of energy?
By then, renewables may be backbone of European energy supply?

Olena Halushka @OlenaHalushka | 8:52 AM · Aug 14, 2022
Board member at @AntAC_ua, co-founder of the International Centre for Ukrainian Victory @ICUVua

russians are preparing at full swing for a public lynching of the Ukrainian defenders in Mariupol, local authorities report. First, they built the prison cages in the philharmonic, and now construct the garage for vehicles which will transport the POWs. They rush before August 24
Photos:
https://twitter.com/OlenaHalushka/status/1558798696640282625/photo/1
https://twitter.com/OlenaHalushka/status/1558798696640282625/photo/2
https://twitter.com/OlenaHalushka/status/1558798696640282625/photo/3
https://twitter.com/OlenaHalushka/status/1558798696640282625/photo/4

August 24 is Ukraine's Independence Day & half a year of the russian 3-day war. Intensification of attacks against Ukrainian towns across the country and horrible things like this russian show execution will take place. russia has to be stopped #SaveAzovstalDefenders un amnesty

BTW, the fans of the "great russian culture" would probably particularly appreciate that the fake trial in cages against the Ukrainian defenders is planned to take place in the philharmonic #russiaIsATerroristState
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Roger Aertgeerts @AertgeertsRoger | 6:40 AM · Aug 15, 2022:
The Ukrainian military should destroy the philharmonic building before this disgrace can take place.

Apparently this clip of Tulsi Gabbard filling in for Tucker Carlson is getting big play on Russian TV:

Acyn @Acyn | 8:40 PM · Aug 12, 2022:
Tulsi: It’s never been about morality. It’s not about the people of Ukraine or protecting democracy. This is about regime change in Russia and exploiting this war to expand NATO..
0:31 ( https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1558252162869755908 )

Russian vehicles seen inside turbine hall at Ukraine nuclear plant
Paul P. Murphy, Tim Lister and Rob Picheta | August 19, 2022

New video shows Russian military vehicles inside Ukrainian nuclear plant...

https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/19/europe/ukraine-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant-russian...

Russia to allow inspectors at Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant - Putin (BBC)

Russian leader Vladimir Putin has said UN officials will be granted permission to visit and inspect the Zaporizhzhia nuclear complex. The Kremlin made the announcement after a call between Mr Putin and French President Emmanuel Macron...

Russia’s Zarubezhneft gets more oil blocks in Sudan (Sudan Tribune)

Sudan offered more oil blocks to Russia’s Zarubezhneft oil producer said a Sudanese official at the end of a ministerial visit to Moscow on Friday. A Sudanese ministerial delegation headed by the minister of minerals ended a three-day visit from August 17 to 19 to Moscow where they participate in the meeting of the joint economic between Sudan and Russia... “We discussed Zarubezhneft’s proposal for investments in Sudan. We previously provided several blocks for development, and now we have added more, in regions with gas and oil potential,” Director General of Oil Exploration and Production Administration at the Sudanese Ministry of Oil, al-Tahir Abul-Hassan said at the end of the joint meetings on Friday. “I think by October we will pass on the necessary information so that they can start looking at these areas,” Abul Hassan added according to the Interfax news agency. The military-led government in Khartoum has expanded bilateral relations with Russia which is struggling to enhance political and economic cooperation and develop influence in Africa after the imposition of international sanctions after the invasion of Ukraine...

Live Updates: Russia Opens Murder Investigation After Blast Kills Daughter of Putin Ally
NYT| 21 Aug 2022

Daria Dugina was the daughter of an ultranationalist who has urged the Kremlin to escalate its assault on Ukraine. The rare attack on a member of President Putin’s inner circle could upend his efforts to maintain a sense of normalcy.

...Mr. Dugin has long been one of the most visible proponents of the idea of an imperial Russia at the helm of a “Eurasian” civilization locked in an existential conflict in the West.

Ms. Dugina was a journalist and commentator who shared the hawkish worldview of her father and had been placed under sanctions by the U.S. and British governments for spreading disinformation about Ukraine.

Russia’s Investigative Committee — the country’s version of the F.B.I. — said in a statement that Ms. Dugina had died at the scene of the blast in the Odintsovo district, an affluent area of Moscow’s suburbs. Images and videos circulating on Russian social media showed a vehicle engulfed in flames and a man who appeared to be Mr. Dugin pacing back and forth, holding his hands to his head...

...Russian state television described the powerful explosion that shattered the windows of nearby homes as a “terrorist act” that had targeted Mr. Dugin and ended up killing his daughter because he took a different car at the last minute.

There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the incident.
A Ukrainian official disavowed his country’s involvement....

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/08/21/world/ukraine-russia-news-war

‘I don’t see justice in this war’: Russian soldier exposes rot at core of Ukraine invasion
Andrew Roth in Moscow and Pjotr Sauer | Wed 17 Aug 2022

Exclusive: Pavel Filatyev has fled his homeland after publishing a 141-page account detailing his experiences on the frontline

Since going public, he said, his entire unit has cut contact with him. But he believed that 20% of them supported his protest outright. And many others, in quiet conversations, had told him about a grudging sense of respect for the patriotism of Ukrainians fighting to defend their own territory. Or had complained about mistreatment by Russia of its own soldiers.

...“They say that the heroism of some is the fault of others,” he said. “It’s the 21st century, we started this idiotic war, and once again we’re calling on soldiers to carry out heroic deeds, to sacrifice themselves. What’s the problem – are we not dying out at it is?”

...He remains one of just a handful of Russian soldiers to have spoken out publicly about the war, albeit after months of agonising about how to do so without violating his service. “People ask me why I didn’t throw down my weapon,” he said. “Well I’m against this war, but I’m not a general, I’m not the defence minister, I’m not Putin – I don’t know how to stop this. I wouldn’t have changed anything to become a coward, and throw down my weapon and abandon my comrades.”...

...“I am just terrified of what happens next,” he said, imagining Russia fighting for total victory despite the terrible cost. “What will we pay for that? Who will be left in our country? ... For myself I said that this is a personal tragedy. Because what have we become? And how can it get any worse?”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/17/i-dont-see-justice-in-this-war-rus...
------------------------------------------------------------------------

...These are extracts from Pavel Filatyev’s memoir, ZOV, which he published on his Vkontakte social media page on 1 August. ZOV, named after the tactical markings painted on Russian army vehicles that have been adopted as a pro-war symbol, is the most detailed voluntary account from a Russian soldier participating in the invasion of Ukraine...

...In the second extract, Filatyev expresses his anger over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

I fought in Ukraine, and if I don’t have the right to say “No to war” why does someone else have the right to start the war? I cannot bring our army back home, but I can share my experience and my thoughts about participation in this war and encourage fellow citizens to take care of their country, which has so many problems of its own to deal with.

This is a vicious circle of some kind, we are all to blame, but we need to make the right conclusions and correct our mistakes. Where is the breadth of the Russian soul? Where did our nobility and spirituality disappear? … Our ancestors shed so much of their own blood for the sake of freedom. It may not change anything, but I refuse to take part in this madness. Ethically, it would be easier if Ukraine attacked us, but the truth is that we invaded Ukraine and the Ukrainians did not invite us.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/17/they-turned-us-into-savages-russia...

Ukraine war: Kyiv counts cost of fragile independence (BBC)

Ukraine's day of independence falls six months to the day since Vladimir Putin launched an invasion from the north, east and south. In that time, almost 9,000 members of the Ukrainian military have been killed and some 5,500 civilian deaths have been confirmed by the UN...

And another date to remember:

80 years ago, the Soviets began defending Stalingrad against Germany (NPR)

The Battle of Stalingrad, with its five months of fierce fighting, began exactly 80 years ago, on Aug. 23, 1942. An estimated 750,000 Soviets died defending the city...

‘They would have preferred hell’: The Battle of Stalingrad, 80 years on (France 24)

The Second World War’s deadliest battle – and one of the most brutal of all time – started on August 23, 1942, when Adolf Hitler’s forces went all out to seize the city bearing Joseph Stalin’s name. If ever a battle was like an unstoppable force meeting an immovable object, it was Stalingrad...

Russia announced “adoption” of thousands of children deported from Mariupol
2022/08/24 - 01:40 • Latest news Ukraine

Only in the Krasnodar region of Russia, more than 1,000 Ukrainian children who were illegally taken from Mariupol captured by the occupiers were given up for “adoption”.

Children whom the Russian occupiers took out of the bombed-out Ukrainian port city will now live in Tyumen, Irkutsk, Kemerovo and Altai Krai.

In addition, more than 300 Ukrainian children are currently in the queue for “adoption”. They are in specialized institutions of the Krasnodar Territory.

https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/08/24/in-russia-announced-adoption-of-thousands...

The real role of pro-Russian Chechens in Ukraine
Mansur Mirovalev | 18 Aug 2022

Known as Kadyrovtsy after their leader Ramzan Kadyrov, the fighters are said to be brutal but delusional about their abilities.

Defending Bucha
War crimes and torture
State within a state
Third Chechen war?

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/8/18/the-real-role-of-pro-russian-chechens-i...
________________________________________

Putin Promises Russian Mothers $16K for Having Ten Children
Brendan Cole | 8/17/22

Vladimir Putin...will revive the "Mother Heroine" award that was first established under Soviet leader Josef Stalin in 1944, which was given to more than 400,000 women before being scrapped after the fall of the USSR in 1991.

Under the decree issued on Monday, a one-off payment of one million rubles ($16,400) will be "awarded to a mother who is a citizen of the Russian Federation, who has given birth to and brought up ten or more children who are citizens of the Russian Federation."...

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-putin-kremlin-mother-heroine-1734361

Russian war dissident Roizman detained in Yekaterinburg (BBC)

He was one of the last remaining prominent opposition politicians in Russia who hadn't been killed, arrested, or forced out of the country. As Yevgeny Roizman was being led out of his flat by police this morning, a waiting journalist asked him why he was being charged. "Just for one phrase," said Mr Roizman, 59, "'The invasion of Ukraine.'" He has had a serious criminal case opened against him for "discrediting the Russian armed forces". It is a common charge used against anti-war activists in Russia. Even using the words "war" or "invasion" here can lead to a visit from the police. Mr Roizman could face five years in prison if convicted, Russian state media reported...

New Counter-Drone System Shows U.S. Has Ukraine's Back 'Over the Long Term'
Jake Thomas | 8/24/22

Uraine's military will have a new weapons system to shoot Russian drones out of the sky under a newly unveiled $3 billion U.S. aid package, which the Pentagon called a showing of its long-term support for the country.

The Biden administration on Wednesday announced what it referred to as the largest single military aid package for Ukraine since Russia began its invasion six months ago. The announcement coincided with Ukrainian Independence Day, and Pentagon officials said the aid was intended to show Russian President Vladimir Putin that waiting for diminished Western support of Ukraine would not work.

The U.S. has committed more than $13.5 billion in military aid to Ukraine since January 2021 to help it defend against Russia's larger and better-equipped military...

https://www.newsweek.com/new-counter-drone-system-shows-us-has-ukraines-back-ove...

John Spencer @SpencerGuard | 10:27 PM · Aug 24, 2022:
Chair of Urban Warfare Studies, Madison Policy Forum | Major, US Army (ret) 25 yrs | Author, Connected Soldiers ...
https://twitter.com/SpencerGuard/status/1562627816771923968
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1562627816771923968.html

What does Russia have to show for 6 months of an illegal war in sovereign, democratic, free Ukraine? Just a list of strategic failures. A review/🧵

Strategic Failure 1 - Russia invaded Ukraine to remove the Ukrainian democratically elected government, install a Russian proxy, and erase Ukraine as a nation, its people & borders, culturally, from memory and turn it into the "Russian federation." They failed at this goal.

Strategic Failure 2 - By not being able to militarily accomplish their goal in Ukraine with the second "most powerful" military in the world, Russia has shown the rest of the world that their military is not as powerful, proficient, capable, ready as many believed.

Strategic Failure 3 - Of Putin's many goals, to include erasing Ukraine, is the revival of Soviet glory, Russian strength, and weakening of European powers. Now, NATO will add roughly 800 miles of borders to Russia and has a renewed purpose, cohesion, clarity.

Strategic Failure 4 - Russian global influence/power. By doubling down in Ukraine, Russia has become weaker in every form of national power (Diplomatic, Information, Economic, and Military). 50 nations have rallied against them in support of Ukraine. Sanctions are crippling them.

Strategic Failure 5 - Militarily, Russia will require decades to recover from loses just up to today. 80,000 Russians have been killed, wounded, captured, gone missing or have deserted in Ukraine. Billions worth of military equip, sophisticated technology, missiles, gone.

Strategic Failure 6 - A complete disregard of any Laws of Wars/Geneva Convention and the ordering, condoning, allowing of mass military unit level execution of war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide will be tried/prosecuted in international forums for years.

Russia will fail in Ukraine in months, not years. Russia will be weaker as a nation for a very long time and Putin has already taken/will take his place as the greatest strategic failing head of state in modern times.

The more the free world supports Ukraine with the weapons and aid they need to continue to defeat Russians in Ukraine, the faster the war will end the only way it can, with Ukrainian Victory.
------------------------------------------------------

Richard Ferrans ☮️ @FerransRichard · 10h
He has done the unthinkable- united Europe on policy principles+ reinvigorated NATO.
He has triggered German rearmament & brought Sweden & Finland into NATO, previously unthinkable. He’s even brought Turkey closer to the fold- Erdogan stated yesterday that Crimea is Ukraine.🇺🇦
{ https://expatguideturkey.com/crimea-message-from-erdogan-turkey-doesnt-recogniza... }

Scott Spacek @ScottSpacek · 10h
Your analysis of Russia/Ukraine is correct, but to me the bigger long-term strategic implication of the conflict will be cementing Russia as a vassal state of China and effectively formalizing a China-Russia alliance against the US. Not clear this is a good overall outcome for US

Fuzzy-Headed Realist #WhatAirdefenseDoing🇺🇸🇺🇦 @Stivnik · 9h
Failure #2 explains why they invested so heavily in hybrid warfare to cover up their internal weakness. They are competitive if democracies are divided or compromised via corruption/ “dark money”. The problem? They were far more corrupt & failed to capitalize.

Ahto Pärl 🇪🇪🌻🇺🇦 @ahto_parl · 9h
Russia also has turbocharged defossilization of energy in Europe and decoupling of energy productuon from Russia’s resources. A huge win in my book if we keep at it. Previously there was so much bilateralism going on despite all the talk of united European front.

Occam’s 🪒 @discalced53 · 9h
Well, it appears he succeeded in building a land bridge to Crimea, the most obvious and well known objective. We’ll see if he can hold it.

Edward Braiman @EdBraiman · 9h
Well let's remember Tsar/Czar Nicholas lost the entire Russian navy with Japan.
Putin lost the flagship Moscow and most his armed forces.

Jim Sciutto (CNN) @jimsciutto | 6:59 AM · Aug 29, 2022:
Scoop: Ukrainian forces have begun "shaping" operations in S. Ukraine to prepare the battlefield for a significant Ukrainian counteroffensive, two senior US officials briefed on the intel tell me. US believes the long-anticipated counteroffensive will include air & ground ops. 1/

2/ Shaping operations are standard military practice prior to an offensive and involve striking weapons systems, command and control, ammunition depots and other targets to prepare the battlefield for planned advances.

3/ The plans come as Russia's war in Ukraine has passed its six-month mark, with US assessments indicating that Russia has been able to deploy fewer units to the frontlines than initially thought, according to a senior US official.

4/ The official said many of the existing units -- which Russia organizes into Battlefield Tactical Groups, or BTGs, comprising infantry, tanks, artillery and air defense -- are deploying below strength, some even at half their normal manpower.

5/ Ukraine indicated Monday the actions were underway. "Ukrainian armed forces have started the offensive actions in several directions on the South front towards liberating the occupied territories," Natalia Humeniuk, spokesperson for UKR’s Operational Command South, told CNN.

6/ She added: “All the details will be available after the operation is fulfilled."

7/ Full piece here: https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/29/politics/ukraine-shaping-counteroffensive/index.h...

8/ Fmr Ukr Pres Poroschenko just told us on the air that the operation is underway: THIS IS THE LONG-AWAITED COUNTEROFFENSIVE OPERATION. IT WAS STARTED TODAY AT 7:00 A.M. WITH SHELLING AND MISSILES ATTACK…”

9/ “…THIS IS FIRST TIME SINCE FEBRUARY 2022 WHEN SUCH A CONCENTRATED OF UKRAINIAN TROOPS WITH WESTERN ARTILLERY AND WITH WESTERN HIMARS AND WESTERN MISSILES WAS COLLECTED TOGETHER FOR THIS COUNTERATTACK.”

Mark Hertling @MarkHertling | 7:49 AM · Aug 29, 2022:
Retired US general. Frmr leader US Army in Europe.

A reminder to Americans interested in what is happening now in Ukraine:

Kherson is the “capital” city within Kherson Oblast. The entire oblast is the size of Maryland, the city is 1/2 the size of Baltimore.

Ukraines is attacking RuF at different points across the oblast.

Ukraine lures Russian missiles with decoys of U.S. rocket system
John Hudson | August 30, 2022

Ukraine may be outgunned but in the latest sign it is not yet outfoxed, a fleet of decoys resembling advanced U.S. rocket systems has tricked Russian forces into wasting expensive long-range cruise missiles on dummy targets, according to interviews with senior U.S. and Ukrainian officials and photographs of the replicas reviewed by The Washington Post.

The Ukrainian decoys are made out of wood but can be indistinguishable from an artillery battery through the lens of Russian drones, which transmit their locations to naval cruise missile carriers in the Black Sea...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/08/30/ukraine-russia-himars-decoy-arti...

Chuck Pfarrer @ChuckPfarrer | 10:00 PM · Aug 29, 2022:
𝐒𝐏𝐄𝐂𝐈𝐀𝐋 𝐂𝐎𝐑𝐑𝐄𝐒𝐏𝐎𝐍𝐃𝐄𝐍𝐓 𝐅𝐎𝐑 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐊𝐘𝐈𝐕 𝐏𝐎𝐒𝐓 Former Sqdn. Leader, SEAL Team 6, NYT Best Selling Author
https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1564432849574535168

KHERSON /0200 UTC 30 AUG/ UKR forces are maintaining a coordinated offensive along a broad front West of Kherson. UKR task units south of the M-14 HWY are said to have advanced as far as Tomnya Balka. RU telegram channels report that local occupation forces are in disarray.

Map ( https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1564432849574535168/photo/1 )

It seems odd that we are being well informed of actions and tactics; yet the Russian troops are caught so off guard and clueless.
>68 margd:. Don’t tell us those details!! Now it can’t be repeated! Sheesh!

>70 2wonderY: The Pfarrer fellow says he isn't giving useful details from UA side--and that a lot of it is actually coming from Russian communications! As for the decoys, Ruusians no doubt know based on the results of missile strikes. If they're really good replicas, they'll havve o keep on wasting missiles--or find better means of surveillance... Good to see the Ukrainians morale is lifting anyway.

Russia's ace is that nuclear plant..."if we can't have Ukraine, nobody can." :( But don't prevailing wins blow Russia's way? Hope Russians realize Putin's interests aren't theirs--sooner than MAGA folk figger out Trump!

>70 2wonderY: Decoys are bog standard (war)fare. I'm not sure it's giving much away.

https://warontherocks.com/2021/04/to-survive-deceive-decoys-in-land-warfare/

>71 margd: "Even from prison I can see opposition to Putin’s war growing" described Vladimir Kara-Murza (WaP, Aug 5). "{T}housands of Russians — more than 16,400, by the latest count from human rights groups — have defied official bans and the threat of prosecution to stage antiwar demonstrations. But many more have expressed quiet opposition."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/08/05/russia-putin-opposition-ukrai...

Maxim Tucker @MaxRTucker | 6:00 AM · Aug 31, 2022:
Assistant Foreign Editor TheTimes reporting from Ukraine. Former Kyiv correspondent. Ex Amnesty
staffer. On leave from @opensociety .

Mariupol journalist citing city morgues reports at least 113,750 residents died during Russia’s assault, siege and ghettoisation of the Ukrainian city. A horrific figure many times higher than previous estimates.
https://dnipro.tv/dumka-eksperta/mykola-osychenko-prezydent-mariupolskoho-teleba...

Mykola told me he had two sources, one for list of identified dead and one for unidentified. He said he had know them a long time and “absolutely believed” them. He said the 27,650 unidentified likely included combatants. Even so, these figures are huge.
-------------------------------------------------------------

The Dissident Civil Servant @dissident_the | 7:29 AM · Aug 31, 2022:
Would be approximately 4.5x the Dresden bombings of WW2.

🇺🇦🌻Andrew🌻🇺🇦 @AndrewMale19 | 10:46 AM · Aug 31, 2022:
It's about the same as Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

The Dissident Civil Servant @dissident_the | 11:37 AM · Aug 31, 2022:
Would represent about 1 in 4 of the pre-war civilian population, if confirmed.

Mister Max@Miste rMaxCy
So 3/4 alive and well?

🇺🇦🌻Andrew🌻🇺🇦 @AndrewMale19
Alive maybe, well I doubt

Russian oil chief Maganov dies in 'fall from hospital window'
BBC | 1 Sept 2022

...The chairman of Russia's Lukoil oil giant, Ravil Maganov (67), has died after falling from a hospital window in Moscow...

Shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine, the Lukoil board called for the conflict to end as soon as possible, expressing its sympathy to victims of "this tragedy"...

Several (other) Russian energy oligarchs have died in unusual circumstances in recent months:

The body of millionaire Novatek former manager Sergei Protosenya was found alongside his wife and daughter at a Spanish villa in April
A former vice-president of Gazprombank, Vladislav Avayev, was found dead with his wife and daughter in their Moscow flat, also in April
In May, a former Lukoil tycoon Alexander Subbotin died of heart failure, reportedly after seeking alternative treatment from a shaman.

Lukoil is Russia's biggest private company. In its statement it said it was down to Maganov's managerial talent that it had evolved into one of the world's largest energy firms...

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62750584

>75 margd: just since the Ukraine invasion all these millionaire and billionaire top execs in Russian oil firms are killing themselves and sometimes their own families for some unknown reason. Like it's normal for very rich people to jump out of 6 story buildings. Couldn't find a better way than that? It really doesn't matter I think to Putin just so whatever obstacles are in his way are not in his way anymore.

:/

If you ever must stay in a Russian hospital, be sure to pay the up-charge for a ground floor room
- David Frum @davidfrum | 8:24 AM · Sep 1, 2022

https://twitter.com/partialschism/status/1565314961441685504/photo/1

Félix Baumann: The War in Ukraine Contributed to the Failure of the UN Nuclear Weapons Conference (Pass Blue)

After three weeks of negotiations at the United Nations headquarters, the 191 states parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) failed to adopt a final document at the 10th review conference of the NPT, held from Aug. 1-26. Given the toxic international context and the increased nuclear threat, this failure is not good news for the nuclear nonproliferation regime, which came into force in 1970. The Swiss ambassador to the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva, Félix Baumann, spent the whole month of August in New York City. Here are his comments on this disappointment for multilateralism...

Forcible Transfer of Ukrainians to Russia (Human Rights Watch)

Russian and Russian-affiliated forces have been forcibly transferring Ukrainian civilians, including those fleeing hostilities, to the Russian Federation or areas of Ukraine occupied by Russia, Human Rights Watch said in a report released today...

UN IAEA and Ukrainian plant operators are heroes in their efforts to prevent a nuclear accident at Zaporizhzhia. I heard that at one point, Russian occupiers marched the Ukrainian plant operators to the woods to warn them that they must obey...

While the nuclear plant is massive, it sounds relatively modern and resistant to all but the worst of man's folly.

Looking at map in BBC artice, Russia's occupied land bridge to Crimea looks as much at risk as a good chunk of SE and central Ukraine, should an accident happen? "In the north, east, and south (of Ukraine), the easterly and southeasterly winds prevail, in the west – northwesterly and westerly, while in the southwest – southerly and southeasterly." ( http://wdc.org.ua/atlas/en/4080100.html )
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Ukraine nuclear plant: How risky is stand-off over Zaporizhzhia?
Paul Kirby | 1 Sept 2022

...UN nuclear inspectors have said they will try to maintain a permanent presence at Europe's biggest nuclear power plant - close to the front line in Ukraine - to help prevent a nuclear accident.

Rafael Grossi, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, has warned of a very real risk of nuclear disaster. After weeks of trying, he has led a team to the plant where Ukrainian staff have worked in highly challenging conditions for almost six months.

...Claire Corkhill, professor of nuclear material degradation at the University of Sheffield...something going wrong...Russia would be just as much at risk as Central Europe.

...Mark Wenman (head of the Centre for Doctoral Training in Nuclear Energy Futures) is full of praise for the Ukrainian staff at the plant for reducing the number of reactors in operation.

...At the heart of this crisis are the plant's original staff, working under Russian occupation and under a great deal of stress. Two workers have told the BBC of the daily risk of being kidnapped.

...Employees have warned of disaster if Russia tries to shut the whole plant down, in order to disconnect the supply from Ukraine and reconnect it instead to Russian-occupied Crimea.

Dr Wenman believes it is the human factor that represents the biggest risk of a nuclear accident, whether because of chronic fatigue or stress: "And that violates all the safety principles."

If something were to go wrong, they would need to be on top form, and one can imagine they are not, says Claire Corkhill.

A letter signed by dozens of employees has called on the international community to stop and think: "We can professionally control nuclear fission," it said, "but we are helpless in the face of people's irresponsibility and madness."...

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62602367

Gorbachev’s Disputed Legacy
A hopeful moment in Russian history dies with the former Soviet leader.
Vladislav M. Zubok | August 30, 2022

Mikhail Sergeyevich Gorbachev, who Russian media reports say died today at age 91 after a long illness, was a rare bright spot in the tragic, grim, blood-splattered history of Russia. Even at his worst moments, he exuded warmth and sparkled with optimism and humor. A passionate political animal, he refused to cling to power for power’s sake.

Such qualities gave Gorbachev the determination to push forward with the policies of perestroika and glasnost—to reform the Soviet Union’s top-down economic system, make its governance more transparent, and allow people more freedom and civil rights. Those qualities also perhaps were the ones he needed to bring a peaceful end to the Cold War—his greatest achievement.

His place in Russian history, however, is more complex—and still to be determined. Russian nationalists and stalwarts of the old order generally view him as a dupe or a traitor, in large part because he oversaw the collapse of the Soviet Union. Other Russians and members of the former Soviet bloc praise him as a farsighted liberator who tried to free them from the yoke of corrupt totalitarianism.
..

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/08/30/mikhail-gorbachev-death-obituary-soviet-uni...

Russia issues warning to Moldova
Sam Meredith | 2 Sept 2022

...Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned the eastern European country of Moldova that any threat against the security of Russian forces in the breakaway region of Transnistria would be considered an attack against Moscow.

“Everyone should understand that any kind of actions that will raise a threat to the security of our servicemen will be considered in accordance with international law as an attack on the Russian Federation,” Lavrov said, according to the Associated Press.

Internationally recognized as part of Moldova, Transnistria is situated on Ukraine’s southwestern border and is home to a sizeable pro-Russian separatist population.

Lavrov’s comments have renewed fears that the region could be at risk of being drawn into the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Moldova’s foreign ministry reportedly summoned the acting Russian ambassador to clarify the situation.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/02/russia-ukraine-live-updates.html

Volodymyr Dacenko @Volodymyr_D_ | 5:02 PM · Sep 2, 202
Analyst, a columnist in Forbes Ukraine

What forces does Russia have on the western bank of the Dnipro?
Are there enough Ukrainian troops to attack? 1/17

Table-Ru forces on w coast of Dnipro R
https://twitter.com/Volodymyr_D_/status/1565807467765932033/photo/1

2/17 There are different assumptions about what is currently being will happen near Kherson.
Someone is talking about an attack on Kherson. Someone is about probing weak spots in the RU defense. Someone claims that the counterattack "failed" (@JulianRoepcke).

3/17 If Ukraine planned to attack Kherson, it probably would not have talked so much about this offensive in the last 2 months.
All this time we have seen informational pressure. "It will start very soon". Now it has turned into military pressure.

4/17 Rather, this is an attempt to create conditions for Russia in which it would be impractical to maintain a combat-ready group on the right bank of the Dnipro. It's similar to what we saw on Snake Island.

5/17 First, supply routes will be put in jeopardy. Then the enemy troops are exhausted by systematic strikes. At a certain moment, the enemy decides to retreat.

6/17 In general, counteroffensive actions on the right bank of the Kherson region can have many goals.

7/17 First of all, it is beneficial for Ukraine to shift the focus of hostilities and draw the enemy's resources to the Kherson, rather than direct all forces to the Donetsk Region, where the enemy has short and protected supply routes.

8/17 Secondly, in the Kherson region, the enemy has many "beaten" units. Some of them fought in the Kyiv region. They have lower motivation and ability to recover than fresher troops in the East, where the main reserves and replenishments were directed.

9/17 Many have already tried to free themselves in these units
News article in Cyrillic ( https://www.sibreal.org/a/sotnyam-boytsov-brigady-iz-habarovska-ne-dayut-uvolits... )

10/17 Thirdly, in recent months, Russia has developed a strategy that has significantly reduced losses among the regular military units of the RFA: the first line of attack in the Donbas is most often made up of "LDNR" and "Wagner", whose losses do not particularly concern Putin

11/17 Regular Russian units mostly go in the second line of attack and provide cover. And they will not suffer such losses as in March-May.
Kherson Oblast is home to troops RFA (with the exception of a few units).

12/17 I used maps @JominiW and https://uawardata.com, and information about these units in open sources, in order to understand how many weapons and soldiers Russia has on the west bank of the Dnipro.

UaWarData
War in Ukraine: Tracking the Russian Invasion
https://www.uawardata.com/

13/17 These are about 15-25 thousand soldiers, 200 tanks, 700 armored vehicles, and 300 artillery systems. This is approximately the same as the entire military aid to Ukraine for 6 months.

14/ In order to support these Russian troops, it is necessary to provide up to 500 trucks per day with ammunition, provisions, ammunition.
If we take as a basis 2 points of crossings across the Dnipro, then it turns out that 10 trucks must pass through each crossing every minute

15/17 The wounded will also be a big problem for Russia. Kherson hospitals will be able to accept some of them. But the majority must be transported to Crimea.

16/17 It is also obvious that Russia has lost part of its air defense systems, which allows more active use of Ukrainian aviation and UAVs.

17/17 It is still too early to talk about the prospects of the offensive. A lot depends on the morale of Russian soldiers. Will they be ready to continue the battle in conditions of poor supplies, shortage of normal food, and medical care...

Addition: 1) A good video about what is happening in the Kherson region now and what to expect from the offensive: "Offensive without frontal attacks. The battles for Kherson will be tough"
Unfortunately, there are no English subtitles.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SsPL-niwcdw&ab_channel=%D0%A0%D0%B0%D0%B4%D1...

2) Key conclusions: the advance is gradual, there are many wounded, because Russia uses massed artillery fire, the enemy is entrenched in every settlement and a quick breakthrough is impossible. The military is oriented not on days and weeks, but on 2 months.

3) During the storming of one of the settlements, there were about 30 wounded per day. These are almost always shrapnel injuries. The military says that everyone survived. Much depends on whether it will be possible to limit the supply of shells through the Dnipro.

4) It is also noted that the enemy continues to transfer forces and now there may be significantly more forces than estimated. Talking about 49 BTG, which have already been moved to the right bank or are waiting for it.

5) In the video, no one expects urban battles for Kherson. If Ukrainian forces managed to reach the Dnipro from the north, Kherson would turn into an island. It will make no sense for the Russians to defend it.

Nice to know that at the rally last night Trump spoke of Putin with admiration again. We know whose side he is on......and it's not Ukraine. Apparently he has no idea that the Russian military has been regularly getting their asses handed to them either. He of course critiqued Afghanistan and Iraq as debacles (and FWIW at best we should have been in and out of Afghanistan and we should never invaded Iraq) but on the scale of debacles both of those failed nation building interventions pale in comparison to Russia's failure in Ukraine and not even close.

At the end of the day though what he's telling his voters is that Putin's absolute disregard for his military.....those who are sent to fight with poor and shoddy equipment, sometimes even without food in a war of conquest and in violation of any norms to lengths that could wreck his own economy is okay by him.

Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien | 3:24 AM · Sep 4, 2022:
Professor of Strategic Studies, @univofstandrews, Author: How the War was Won, and Second Most Powerful Man in the World. Editor in Chief, War in History

Weekend Update, Battle of the Bridges, week 2 or week 8 (doesn't really matter). Ukrainian strategy now seems confirmed, the Russians have behaved as expected, and its a question now of logistics and attrition.
Aerial photo bridge ( https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1566326321763975168 )

Though there was a great deal of discussion this week about Ukraine starting an operation, its better to say that an ongoing Ukrainian operation entered into a new stage. On August 29, the Ukrainians started pressing on the Kherson front:
Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦@IAPonomarenko | 6:03 AM · Aug 29, 2022
Defense reporter with The Kyiv Independent. Guerilla radio!
Let’s be careful about the reported Ukrainian breakthrough in Kherson Oblast.
Fighting has indeed been hard and Ukrainian artillery worked all night long.
Let’s see what comes next before we start expecting something really HUGE.
Map ( https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1564192073506586624/photo/1 )

One of the early reports.
Euan MacDonald @Euan_MacDonald | 5:56 AM · Aug 29, 2022
Ukrainian forces reported to have broken the Russian line of defense in #Kherson Oblast - no indication where, though, and no way to confirm. Lots of reports of Kherson city an oblast under Ukrainian artillery attack over the last day. #Ukraine seems to be stepping up pressure.
Quote Tweet
hromadske @HromadskeUA | 5:52 AM · Aug 29, 2022:
(Google Translate)The Armed Forces of Ukraine broke through the first line of defense in the Kherson Region, reports the Operational Group of Forces "Kakhovka".
"The 109th regiment of the DPR withdrew from its positions in the Kherson region, the Russian paratroopers supporting them fled the battlefield," the group reports
https://hromadske.ua/posts/zsu-prorvali-pershu-liniyu-oboroni-na-hersonshini-ugr...
0:26 in Ua ( https://twitter.com/HromadskeUA/status/1564189308633993216 )

some more reports.
xena 🌊 @xenasolo | 5:59 AM · Aug 29, 2022:
🇺🇦Crimean/Кримська, sad & mad since 2014
Official sources report that the 109th regiment of the so-called dnr and the russian paratroopers backing it have left their positions.
Meaning the first line of russian defense in Kherson direction has been broken through by 🇺🇦 forces.
God bless the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Text Ua ( https://twitter.com/xenasolo/status/1564190953434484742/photo/1 )
Text English ( https://twitter.com/xenasolo/status/1564190953434484742/photo/2 )

Even more detail in these tweets.
Oliver Carroll @olliecarroll | 5:37 AM · Aug 29, 2022:
Foreign Correspondent for TheEconomist
Report that Ukrainians have had some success breaking through Russian proxy defences near Kherson. Likely to be a fluid situation. https://dumskaya.net/news/v-hersonskoy-oblasti-ukrainskie-voyska-poshli-v-168224...
The operation appears to have started with overnight HIMARS strikes on command centres and bridges. Unconfirmed report claims Ukr used aviation, artillery to break through first line of Russian defence.

Worth noting that the most recent update on the fighting makes direct reference to the attacks on the bridges over the Dnieper, and the cutting of supplies to the west bank.
https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1564196565488738304/photo/1

More stories about the bridges attack.
KyivPost @KyivPost | 5:59 AM · Aug 29, 2022
BREAKING: The counteroffensive on the ground begins. The #Ukrainian Army have broken through the first line of #Russia's defense in #Kherson.
Most of the key bridges are rendered defunct, obstructing the supply of heavy #Russian weapons to the temporarily occupied region of 🇺🇦

Looks like something official here. Ukrainians claiming to have broken through the first Russian line.
The New Voice of Ukraine @NewVoiceUkraine | 6:27 AM · Aug 29, 2022:
BREAKING: #Ukraine military has breached the #Russia first line of defense near #Kherson, according to a spokesperson for Operational Command South. They believe there’s a real chance to liberate its occupied territories, considering the very successful use of Western weapons.

Just reupping this from yesterday's update thread. Talked about the Battle of the Bridges. Ukraine's plan seemed to be to draw Russian forces onto the west bank of the Dnieper and cut them off:
The past week has seen continual attacks on the bridges and transport routes over the Dniepr. Take those out, and the large Russian forces on the west bank (20k) will be in big trouble. https://twitter.com/carlbildt/stat

OSINTtechnical @Osinttechnical | 6:30 AM · Aug 29, 2022:
Defense "journalist"@TheOsintBunker cohost and editor. Slightly lost American with @UKDefJournal
http://osinttechnical.net
Honestly, there is a nonzero chance that all of the press around this is a bit of a disinfo op from the Ukrainian military. I could definitely see this as an attempt to break morale among conscript or separatist units.

Otoh...
Dmitri @wartranslated | 6:44 AM · Aug 29, 2022:
Just now - Russian fighter in Ukraine Anatoliy Dryomov - "there is a big risk to lose Kherson, many losses among ours".
Source: https://t.me/drema_dllllll/452
Text Engl translation ( https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1564202429511618560/photo/1 )
Text Ru? ( https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1564202429511618560/photo/2 )

...

Mark Hertling (retired general, frmr head US Army in Europe)
@MarkHertling
9h • 16 tweets • 5 min read
While it's not on the news, I'm watching the current fight in Kherson (and the renewed fight in the Donbas).

The "Kherson pocket" (a smaller version of the WWII "Falaise Pocket" I mentioned a few weeks ago) is not a large "counteroffensive," but it is interesting. 1/16🧵

...there is the potential for a lot of RU prisoners in this significant battle (Kherson) in the next few weeks...

...There are early reports in the Donbas that UA forces have launched an attack over the Severski Donets River and seized the town of Ozerne (see below) 14/

While a relatively smaller victory, this action by UA in the Donbas is *after* the RU pulled forces to head south {in response to UA attack Kherson}, again showing offensive spirit by Ukraine. 15/

Because I've been asked in the last few days "how's it going in Ukraine?" I thought these few tactical observations might show:
-the slow pace of what we should expect in coming weeks
-the offensive spirit & skill of the UA
-the quandary RU finds itself in
{reduced numbers, poor leadership, lack of support, morale, two bridges Kherson-Russia}
16/16

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1566602361681977345.html

Backgrounder: The Water Crisis in Crimea
Polina Vynogradova | April 24, 2020

...the Dnieper River...once met most of Crimea's water needs

In February (2020), the city administration announced that Simferopol, the capital of the Russian-annexed Crimea, had enough water supply to last only 100 days. The water shortage in one of the biggest cities on the peninsula reflects the situation in the entire region. In 2014, in response to the annexation of Crimea, Kyiv decided to cut off the water supply to the peninsula. Chronic water shortages have been an acute problem ever since.

Crimea has always depended on the water supply from the mainland. The 400-kilometer-long North Crimean Canal (NCC) carried water from Ukraine’s biggest river, Dnipro, to the peninsula. Before the occupation, the canal provided 85% of drinkable water to Crimea.

...Without water from the mainland, Crimea has to rely on its own water resources to support the local population. The peninsula has 23 reservoirs, with 15 in-stream and 8 off-stream reservoirs. The latter used to receive water from the North Crimean Canal. Now they are filled with water from rivers and wells. While the local water resources are limited, for the last six years they provided enough water to meet the needs of the local population.

However, without a stable water supply from the mainland, the peninsula and its water resources are heavily affected by weather conditions. In 2018, after a severe drought, one of the largest rivers of Crimea, the Biyuk-Karasu, dried up. This year (2020), due to a second consecutive winter with low snowfall, several reservoirs supplying water to the major cities on the peninsula stand almost empty...

https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/backgrounder-the-water-crisis-in-crimea/

Exiled Russian calls on those still in country to ‘sabotage’ Putin’s war (Guardian)

Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the exiled Russian businessman, has called on Russians still inside the country to launch a wave of “sabotage” against state structures, with the aim of derailing Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine and destabilising his government...

Ukrainian Intelligence destroys FSB base, ballots prepared for illegal referendum
2022/09/05

Officers of Ukrainian Intelligence destroyed Russia’s FSB* base and storage for ballots prepared for an illegal referendum on accession to Russia in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. No civilians were injured as a result of the special operation.

https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/09/05/ukrainian-intelligence-destroys-fsb-base-...

* The Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation is the principal security agency of Russia and the main successor agency to the Soviet Union's KGB (Wikipedia)
_____________________________________________

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 6:46 PM · Sep 5, 2022:
DPhil/PhD Intl Relations @UniofOxford Assoc Fellow @RUSI_org Bylines @ForeignPolicy, WaPo etc 3 forthcoming books HurstPublishers

BREAKING: Ukraine claims that it struck a FSB base in Zaporizhzhia

Ukraine alleges that the FSB base has personnel who guard the ballots that would be used in a referendum to annex Zaporizhzhia into Russia

Russia's public warnings about annexing southern Ukraine via referenda has concretely fuelled Ukrainian military action

Bill Browder (Magnitsky Act) @Billbrowder | 7:02 AM · Sep 5, 2022:
Russia halts gas supplies to Europe until western sanctions lifted. No more pretence about “technical problems”. It’s now a full scale gas war with the West.

Russia halts gas supplies to Europe until western sanctions lifted
Gazprom previously said it was halting flows through Nord Stream 1 because of a technical fault
Max Seddon, David Sheppard and Henry Foy | 5 Sept 2022
https://www.ft.com/content/2624cc0f-57b9-4142-8bc1-4141833a73dd
----------------------------------------------------

Tabula Veritatis @TabulaVeritatis | 7:04 AM · Sep 5, 2022:
Its putins last hand. This is not a sign of power, quite the opposite. Hold on!

Flaps ohoolahan @Flaps_OHoolahan | 7:15 AM · Sep 5, 2022:
If Europe can make up for the shortfall & it's looking likely with Germany moving away from them quite successfully, Putin has ruined Russia's only export in long term for a war the're losing. ...

Wait, back up. What's this about voting in southern Ukraine while it's under attack?

Russian proxies plan vote in Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia region on joining Russia | Reuters | Jun 2022
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-proxies-plan-vote-ukraines-zaporizh...

Voting on Annexation of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia on Hold as Ukraine Mounts Fightback | CNN News18 | today
https://www.news18.com/news/world/voting-on-annexation-of-kherson-zaporizhzhia-o...

CNN reported in India that Moscow-backed officials have been talking for months about holding referendums to make occupied territories a part of Russia, "as happened in the 2014 annexation of Crimea."

Why the Crimean Referendum Is Illegitimate | Council of Foreign Affairs | Apr 2014
https://www.cfr.org/interview/why-crimean-referendum-illegitimate

CFR explained that the Obama administration in the USA and most European governments condemned Russia's referendum as a violation of both international law and the Ukrainian Constitution, because Ukraine requires "all of the Ukrainian people" to approve changes to the territory, not only people in the territory, which is a requirement supported by international law.

Good to know.

>92 aspirit: a requirement supported by international law

That is unless the group or region has been denied a right to "internal self determination" or human rights violations by the central government.

Even if Putin's military forced Ukrainians in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson to officially become Russian, international law says people in those regions must be free to develop politically and culturally on their own as well as to live without rape, torture, unfair legal trials, and other abuses by the central government.

Russia would have to stop its human rights abuses in the area for a referendum to be recognized internationally.

See...
Russia's 'most hidden crime' in the Ukraine war: rape | LA Times | Aug 2022
https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2022-08-21/russias-most-hidden-crime-...
(might be paywalled)

The abuse likely won't stop until Ukrainians kick the Russian soldiers out.

The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 5:45 PM · Sep 5, 2022:

⚡️Bloomberg: Report warns of ‘deep and prolonged' recession in Russia.

A report seen by Bloomberg prepared for the Russian government on the true economic impact of Russia's invasion paints a "far more dire picture" than the "upbeat public pronouncement," Bloomberg reports.

Two of the three scenarios see Russia's economy returning to its prewar level "at the end of a decade or later."

All three scenarios show that pressure from sanctions will intensify, and Russia’s ability to supply its own market may be affected by Europe reducing its dependence on Russian oil and gas.
------------------------------------------------------------

Russia Privately Warns of Deep and Prolonged Economic Damage

Confidential document contrasts with upbeat public statements
Report says key sectors face sharp drop in output, brain drain

Bloomberg News | September 5, 2022

Russia may face a longer and deeper recession as the impact of US and European sanctions spreads, handicapping sectors that the country has relied on for years to power its economy, according to an internal report prepared for the government....

Two of the three scenarios in the report show the contraction accelerating next year, with the economy returning to the prewar level only at the end of the decade or later. The “inertial” one sees the economy bottoming out next year 8.3% below the 2021 level, while the “stress” scenario puts the low in 2024 at 11.9% under last year’s level...

Export Drop
Oil Sector Hit
‘Critical Imports’

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-05/russia-risks-bigger-longer-sa...

The chips are down: Putin scrambles for high-tech parts as his arsenal goes up in smoke
Zoya Sheftalovich and Laurens Cerulus | September 5, 2022

...Kyiv is acutely aware that the outcome of the war is likely to hinge on whether Russia finds a way to regain access to high-tech chips, and is out to ensure it doesn't get them. In order to flag the danger, Ukraine is sending out international warnings that the Kremlin has drawn up shopping lists of semiconductors, transformers, connectors, casings, transistors, insulators and other components, most made by companies in the U.S., Germany, the Netherlands, the U.K., Taiwan and Japan, among others, which it needs to fuel its war effort.

The message is clear: Don't let the Russians get their hands on this gadgetry....

https://www.politico.eu/article/the-chips-are-down-russia-hunts-western-parts-to...

The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 11:03 PM · Sep 5, 2022
⚡️New York Times: US intelligence reports Russia is buying artillery from North Korea.

According to newly declassified American intelligence, North Korea is selling artillery shells and rockets by the millions to Russia, the New York Times reports.

Together with Iran’s shipment of drones to Russia, U.S. officials consider both moves as signs that sanctions are affecting Russia’s ability to obtain arms.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Ania Konieczna @AniaKoniec
...North Korea’s apparent ability to produce and sell that many rounds of artillery should be the real news here, if it’s true...

one_day_pictures@CJTek94
so China finally found a way to profit off this without losing face

🇺🇦Brendan Parry Kaufmann 🇺🇦 @BParryKaufmann
My thought exactly. No way Russia is going to buy NK's clapped out relics - but they serve as a semi-deniable shopfront for the PRC.

UN calls for demilitarised zone around Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant (Guardian)

The UN secretary general, António Guterres, has called for a demilitarised zone around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, involving the withdrawal of Russian occupying troops and the agreement of Ukrainian forces not to move in. Guterres was addressing a UN security council session on Tuesday, at which he supported the recommendations put forward Rafael Mariano Grossi, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) who led an inspection visit to the occupied Zaporizhzhia plant last week, and presented a report to the security council. The report confirmed the presence of Russian soldiers and military equipment at the plant, including army vehicles... “We are playing with fire and something very, very catastrophic could take place. This is why in our report, we are proposing the establishment of a nuclear safety and security protection zone limited to the perimeter and the plant itself,” Grossi said. Guterres said that, as a first step, Russian and Ukrainian forces should cease all military operations around the plant. “As a second step, an agreement on a demilitarised perimeter should be secured,” he added. “Specifically, that will include the commitment by Russian forces to withdraw military personnel and equipment from that perimeter and the commitment by Ukrainian forces not to move in”...

Zaporizhzhia: UN nuclear agency calls for Ukraine plant safety zone (BBC)

Shelling of Europe's biggest nuclear power plant could lead to unlimited release of radioactive materials - and Russian military equipment on site could undermine its security, the UN's nuclear agency has warned. Russia occupied the Zaporizhzhia plant at the start of its invasion of Ukraine and it has come under repeated attack. After a visit last week, UN's nuclear watchdog has called for a safety and security protection zone. It said shelling must end immediately...

Oleksiy Sorokin @mrsorokaa | 12:18 PM · Sep 6, 2022:
Journalist, editor, manager 🇺🇦🇨🇦| @UofT 2018 | ex-Kyiv Post | now @kyivindependent

The main news today is the sudden Ukrainian counteroffensive near the city of Balakliia, Kharkiv Oblast.

Waiting for more info, but Russian military channels are saying that they are “fucked.”
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Tetyana 🇺🇦🇪🇪 @ | 11:24 AM · Sep 6, 2022:
Ukrainian from Kyiv, Ukraine. Came to Estonia in late March...

Hahahah...russian channels all try to convince that there's no panic and even publish exactly same message 💬 just copy-paste 🤡
Image RU ( https://twitter.com/TetySt/status/1567171990439485440/photo/1 )

{Translation? "There is no panic. In Balakleya there were mostly mobilized"?}
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Julian Röpcke🇺🇦 @JulianRoepcke | 3:49 PM · Sep 6, 2022:
Journalist. SCHLAUBERGER. Verantwortlicher Redakteur im Ressort Politik BILD
. Nur meine Meinung! „Twitter-Feldherr des Tages“.

There is absolute panic among Russian sources about the situation in Balakliya.
They fear an "Ukrainian assault at 4am" tomorrow, claim "English speaking mercenaries are leading the offensive" & talk about Russian "units, getting encircled in the direction of Kharkiv"...
Map ( https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1567238521257181184/photo/1 )

Latest Russian reports indicate a large-scale Ukraine offensive along 17 km of the Balakliya-Kupyansk highway with attacks on two cities along the hgihway and Balakliya itself.
Verbivka is not in the report, possibly meaning it was already taken by Ukrainian forces.
Map ( https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1567242536414052354/photo/1 )

I mean, confirming it is still under Ukrainian control.
Julian Röpcke🇺🇦@JulianRoepcke | 1:17 PM · Sep 6, 2022:
Ukrainian forces liberated Verbivka in Kharkiv olbast, geolocated footage confirms.
A heavy Ukrainian offensive near Balakliya and Izyum is also confirmed by Russian sources.
Map ( https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1567200279686254593/photo/1 )

Dmitri @wartranslated | 7:42 PM · Sep 6, 2022:
DMs open for submissions | 🇪🇪 Estonian in 🇬🇧 | Founder of a project concerned with translating materials about the war in Ukraine | http://linktr.ee/wartranslated

There is a noticeable change in rhetoric in certain Russian channels recently: while large propagandists continue with victorious proclamations, smaller guys appear more desperate, like this character currently fighting, saying the situation in Kherson is becoming catastrophic.

Text Engish ( https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1567297092900503552/photo/1 )
Text RU ( https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1567297092900503552/photo/2 )

Source: https://t.me/separ_13/2837

Nika Melkozerova @NikaMelkozerova | 9:43 AM · Sep 6, 2022:
@NewVoiceUkraine executive editor. An award-winning journalist. Bylines: NBC News, Vice, Politico, OCCRP, NYT, the Atlantic and others.

As Armed Forces of Ukraine storm Russian occupied Balakalia in Kharkiv Oblast, Russian military reporters are crying: we thought main strike would be in Kherson. Aaah we got f.cked hard!"

Kyiv doesn't confirm that yet. As we have operational silence. Yet the info is already there. If you read Russian, here is the one I quote
Text RU ( https://twitter.com/NikaMelkozerova/status/1567147520727326720/photo/1 )

Mark Hertling @MarkHertling | 7:11 AM · Sep 7, 2022:

Over the past 48 hrs, Ukraine brilliantly executed a relatively small-scale armored attack that will reap gains in Kharkiv Oblast

They regained key terrain that will affect Russian supply lines, w/ the added benefit of depleting RU units & overall RU morale.

Well done!

Yaroslav Trofimov @yarotrof | 9:18 AM · Sep 7, 2022:
Chief Foreign-Affairs Correspondent of The Wall Street Journal. Author of Siege of Mecca

Lots of videos of Russian POWs (including a lieutenant-colonel) and abandoned Russian positions coming from the Balakliya-Izyum front as Russian military bloggers and analysts remain in doomsday mode. The speed of the Ukrainian advance seems to have stunned everyone.

Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien | 12:11 PM · Sep 7, 2022
Professor of Strategic Studies, @univofstandrews , Author: How the War was Won, and Second Most Powerful Man in the World. Editor in Chief, War in History

The Ukrainian move to draw Russian forces into Kherson is clearly one of the great strategic moves of the war. It brought some of the best Russian units into Kherson where they cant be supplied and are being methodically attrited. And made the Russians thin the line in Kharkiv.

>100 margd::

Here's the Russian text. (So Google Translate can be used to transform it into whatever language you might prefer.)

В Балаклеи пизда.

Оказывается, что не зря ВСУ стягивали технику в Харьковском направлении. Похоже, что удар на Херсонщине был отвлекающим маневром. А основной удар состоялся на Харьковском фронте. Сегодня утром укропы перешли в наступление в районе Балаклеи. Сейчас происходит подрыв мостов, ведущих в город. Город обстреливают из крупнокалиберной артиллерии и РСЗО. Противник закрепился на окраинах города. Идёт контрбатарейная борьба, по наступающим силам ВСУ работает авиация. Ситуация на Изюмском направлении также обострилась. Идут жестокие бои. Противник оживился на всём протяжении Харьковского фронта.

Похоже, нас яростно наебали, товарищ.

Some people think Russia's earlier loss of generals reduced their ability to anticipate Ukrainian moves?

>104 bnielsen: You can read at least two languages--does Google translate deliver similar translations, do you think?

>105 margd: they may be worse now but it seems to me that the generals they lost at the beginning weren’t very good. This happens particularly with larger military powers. The officer class gets bureaucratized and politicized and it’s not new to the Russian army historically. It’s pointed out in Tolstoy. It’s pointed out in Solzenhitsyn. It happens in France, Britain, Germany and the United States. There are generals who are very good and those who are more than less just politicians. As battlefield commanders a lot are complete dumbasses. If you’re going to war you got to get the right ones. In Russia’s case I don’t know if they have any….a bad sign almost always is when none of them speak truth to power and in Russia’s case it seems none of them have really been willing to challenge Putin.

A prime example right at the beginning was setting up shop in Chernobyl. Whoever thought digging holes there was a good idea. But logistically they still haven’t got their act together. Can’t keep their armies supplied with food and fuel…..they’re always getting surprised. They run out of ammo….create unnecessary traffic jams….vehicle maintenance sucks and they can’t control their troops looting, raping and murdering. There’s no discipline and low morale and that speaks pretty much to the entirety of their operation from day 1 from north to south to east to west.

>105 margd: If I may respond to this question, I'm fluent in both languages and can confirm Google translate does an adequate job translating although it does not handle well slang and some foul language.

Paul Urey: Captured Briton possibly suffered 'unspeakable' torture, says Ukraine (BBC)

The body of a captured British man who died in detention has been returned by Russia with signs of "possible unspeakable torture," Ukraine says. Paul Urey, aged 45, is reported to have died in detention in July after being captured by pro-Russian separatists. He was being held captive in the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) breakaway region of Ukraine. The UK has previously described Mr Urey as an aid worker and said Russia must face responsibility for his death. Ukraine's foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba said "Russians" had now returned his body with "signs of possible unspeakable torture," giving no further details... Liz Truss, who was then foreign secretary and is now prime minister, said he had been captured while undertaking humanitarian work. "He was in Ukraine to try and help the Ukrainian people in the face of the unprovoked Russian invasion," she said.

>105 margd: Yes, Google Translate is fine. (I remember trying to use a Russian-to-English dictionary to translate a mathematical text. No good. A mathematical Russian-to-English dictionary was much more helpful.)

As >107 annushka: notes, slang and foul language is not handled perfect, but that's to be expected. (I've seen the photo of the text with some black spots on a couple of the Russian words. It's always nice to have censors point out the juicy parts of a text :-)

Ukraine forces = UKRs = укропы = dill is an example of slang, I think.

>108 John5918:

Dmytro Kuleba @DmytroKuleba | 2:48 PM · Sep 7, 2022
Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine

Russians have returned the body of a British humanitarian worker Paul Urie whom they captured in April and reported dead due to “illnesses” and “stress” in July. With signs of possible unspeakable torture. Detaining and torturing civilians is barbarism and a heinous war crime 1/2

I express my deepest condolences to relatives and close ones of Paul Urie. He was a brave man who dedicated himself to saving people. Ukraine will never forget him and his deeds. We will identify perpetrators of this crime and hold them to account. They won’t escape justice 2/2

Michael MacKay @mhmck | 1:39 PM · Sep 7, 2022:
Ph.D. from the LSE (London School Economics)... veteran of Ukraine democratic and civil society renaissance ... election observer ... chronicler of Muscovy's war ... from Upper Canada

The images from Kherson region are of piles of corpses of Russian soldiers and many, many Russian POWs.*

From Kharkiv region there's the spectacle of Ukrainian flags being raised in liberated villages and Ukrainian armour rolling on the next objectives.
------------------------------------------------------
ETA:

* Regular soldiers who did not take part in atrocities may be happy to be in Ukrainian custody?
In WW2, my Cdn dad said most of their German POWs were relieved to be off the battlefield. Allies didn't trust SS soldiers, but most were country boys like my dad, who didn't believe their superiors that they would be mis-treated. I think most ended up in US and Canada for the war, and some settled here.

>109 bnielsen: укропы usages are not limited to UKR. I see it used often as a reference to the general Ukrainian population too.

>112 annushka: Thanks! I didn't know that.

Ukrainian official tells UN Security Council that 2.5 million people have been forcibly deported to Russia
Richard Roth | 7 Sept 2022

Ukraine denounced Russia’s “filtration” scheme at a United Nations Security Council meeting Wednesday.

Deputy Ukrainian Ambassador to the UN Khrystyna Hayovyshyn said Ukrainians forced to head to Russia or Russian-controlled territory are being killed and tortured.

Hayovyshyn told the Security Council that thousands of Ukrainian citizens are being forcefully deported to “isolated and depressed regions of Siberia and the far east. The Ambassador said 2.5 million people have been deported, including 38,000 children.

Ukrainian citizens are terrorized, under the pretense of a search for "dangerous" people by Russian authorities, Hayovyshyn said. Those who have different political views or are affiliated with the Ukrainian government or media disappear into a gray area. Children are ripped from the arms of their parents, the Ukraine representative declared.

Russia's "filtration operations" are "horrifying," US ambassador to the UN says
From CNN's Laura Ly...

UN: Russia has subjected civilians to body searches and forced nudity during "filtration" security checks
From CNN's Laura Ly and Richard Roth...

UN says there have been credible allegations of forced transfers of unaccompanied Ukrainian children to Russia
From CNN's Laura Ly

Zelensky hits back at Putin over grain export criticism
From CNN's Yulia Kesaieva and Mick Krever.

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-new-09-07-22/index.html

Mikhail Khodorkovsky (English) @mbk_center | 11:19 AM · Sep 8, 2022:
exiled Russian businessman and opposition activist, now residing in London. (Wikipedia)

⚡️Municipal deputies in St Petersburg have put forward a proposal to the 🇷🇺 State Duma to bring treason charges against Putin in order to remove him from the presidential office
Text ( https://twitter.com/mbk_center/status/1567895334310772738/photo/1 )
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Johnny @_Johnny_Doe | 11:29 AM · Sep 8, 2022
⚠️On March 4, the deputies of the district of Smolninskoye (a municipal administrative subdivision of Tsentralny District of St. Petersburg) also wrote personally to Putin, "to immediately withdraw Russian troops from the territory of Ukraine and resign!".

Quote Tweet
Дмитрий Палюга @dmitry_palyuga | 5:17 AM · Sep 8, 2022
4 марта ещё написали лично Путину
(Google translation: On March 4, they also wrote personally to Putin)

Quote Tweet
Дмитрий Палюга @dmitry_palyuga · Mar 2:
Совет МО Смольнинское принял решение о деп запросе президенту РФ следующего содержания
(Google translation: The Council of the Moscow Region Smolninskoye decided to file a request to the President of the Russian Federation with the following content )
Letter--in Russian ( https://twitter.com/dmitry_palyuga/status/1499057254946983947/photo/1 )

Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | @ChuckPfarrer | 8:36 PM · Sep 8, 2022:
Former SEAL Team Six Squadron Leader, NYT Best Selling Author, Conflict Correspondent,

TAKEN: Yesterday, videos featured a RU officer captured on the Kharkiv front. He was assumed to be a local commander-- he was, in fact, Lieutenant General Andrei Sychevoi, General in command RU’s “West” Group. Sychevoi is the most senior Russian officer captured since WW II.
Photo ( https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1568035564452024321/photo/1 )

New poll: 70% of Germans want to keep supporting Ukraine despite high energy prices.
Support for Ukraine is highest among supporters of the Greens (97%) and
lowest on the far-right (30%).
Bar graph ( https://twitter.com/marceldirsus/status/1568166376799444992/photo/1 )

- Marcel Dirsus @marceldirsus | 5:16 AM · Sep 9, 2022
Security & Foreign Policy. Non-Resident Fellow at the Institute for Security Policy at Kiel University.

Tarmo Juntunen 🇨🇿 🇺🇦 🇪🇺 NAFO @TarmoJuntunen | 9:19 AM · Sep 9, 2022:

AFU 🇺🇦 counter-offensive in Kharkiv region for the last three days 🔥
0:23 ( https://twitter.com/TarmoJuntunen/status/1568227635641331713 )

Unfortunately it's not mine. I found the video on Telegram and only after that I found out the author. I recommend following @Martinnkaaaa
https://twitter.com/Martinnkaaaa/status/1568202821731860483

Ukraine war: Heavily pregnant medic held in Russian prison (BBC)

A Ukrainian woman who is eight months pregnant is being held at a notorious prison camp in the Russian-occupied part of eastern Ukraine, her friends and family say. Mariana Mamonova, a military medic, was taken prisoner at the start of April while serving in Mariupol...

‘Most consequential’ days of Ukraine War just occurred and ‘collapse’ of Putin’s forces ‘doesn’t seem a long way away,’ says military expert
Steve Mollman | September 10, 2022

...Earlier this week, lawmakers in St. Petersburg demanded that Putin be impeached and charged with high treason over his decision to invade Ukraine. They were promptly summoned to a police station on a charge of discrediting the country’s armed forces.

https://fortune.com/2022/09/10/ukraine-war-most-consequential-days-collapse-of-r...
_________________________________________

Igor Sushko @igorsushko| 2:00 PM · Sep 10, 2022:
TVs hacked yet again in occupied #Crimea. President @ZelenskyyUa's address to Crimeans being played on all channels.
1:21 ( https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1568660769792839684 )
_________________________________________
Interesting read:

Dr Mike Martin 🔶@ThreshedThought | 4:00 AM · Sep 10, 2022:
Fascinated by what violent organised conflict teaches us about humans; Visiting Fellow @warstudies

It looks like the last few days have been the most consequential of the Ukraine War.
A brief thread, updated during the day: https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/1568509746268848128

...This is starting to move so fast now, that I’m gonna make a bold prediction for a war ending move frm Ukr. Blue arrows are current Ukrainian assaults. Black is what they need to do to isolate Kherson (hook via Melitopol) and cut the bridge connecting Crimea to R to isolate Crimea
Map (https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/1568605636241555459/photo/1)

...Don’t know if they got the reserves or manoeuvre capability to do it but if they do it’s one of the most stunning pieces of generalship ever...

...Here we go. There is a strategic reserve apparently...

Igor Sushko @igorsushko | 10:45 AM · Sep 10, 2022:
Born in Ukraine. American. @WindofChangeRG | Former Racecar Driver - Japanese SUPER GT

With chatter of Russian armor being spotted around #Moscow, ongoing catastrophic defeats in #Ukraine, and rumors of the General Staff directly challenging #Putin during briefings, he might be nervous. Gaddafi & Saddam Hussein are eagerly waiting for him in a very hot place. 🔥

As happened in the last few days, multiple city councils openly signing letters calling #Putin a traitor is not a normal course of business in #Russia.

RUMOR: Putin intends to "exterminate" everyone responsible for the catastrophic rout of the Russian army in #Kharkiv region. If true, things are likely to escalate very rapidly.
_____________________________________________

Yeah, yeah. Slick propaganda release, but moving, no?

Defense of Ukraine @DefenceU | 5:33 AM · Sep 10, 2022:
Ukraine government organization. Official page of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine 🇺🇦

Before the battle.
0:31 ( https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1568533226678788096 )

Russia announces troop pullback from Ukraine’s Kharkiv area

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-kyiv-world-news-kharkiv-e06b2aa723e826...

“The Russian army in these days is demonstrating the best that it can do — showing its back,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a video released by his office Saturday night. “And, of course, it’s a good decision for them to run.”

Gee just last week at his Wilkes Barre rally Trump was talking up Putin again……how fierce and smart he was. Donald is kind of a hero of official Russia state media.

>123 lriley: Wonder what Trumpian arrangements would fall through if Putin regime did come to an end?

All of the support the current US government has been sending to Ukraine....

Imagine if the guy who was withholding aide to the country while he was POTUS (the reason for his impeachment) and who continues to praise Putin through this war were still in the White House.

Kick the Putin's invaders out, Ukrainians. Americans will try to hold the support lines here.

My memory may be a little fuzzy but not all that long ago it seems that Lindsey Graham was one of the three amigos and one of the amigos John McCain often would go on about us fighting the Russians on European soil and of course his amigo friends were on board with that pretty bad idea. It would even would come up now and again during McCain's presidential campaign. Remember Sarah Palin (John's running mate) could see Russia from her own back yard?....back then Putin was pure evil. 'There they are!' 'Where?' 'Over there!' 'Looks like they're tying some poor guy to a nuke and getting ready to drop him on us!!!' Fast forward to today a good % of republicans view Russia and their invasion of Ukraine as either good or okay by them (because Trump says so and he's a Putin fan).....and Graham who would have once had us go to war with Russia over nothing at all I suspect is all there with the party line as espoused by Trump that this invasion is good or okay by him. Times and minds change I guess and maybe Lindsey just needed a new friend.

Dmitri @wartranslated | 4:03 PM · Sep 10, 2022:
DMs open for submissions | 🇪🇪 Estonian | Founder of a project concerned with translating materials about the war in Ukraine

Obviously unverified but this call comes from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence hotline for Russians who want to surrender. The Russian man is asking where he can surrender and if his sack will be safe.

(U)=Ukrainian (R)=Russian

1:45 ( https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1568691611844116480 )

It’s Time to Prepare for a Ukrainian Victory
The liberation of Russian-occupied territory might bring down Vladimir Putin.
Anne Applebaum | 11 Sept 2022

...Russian troops are not fighting back. More than that: Offered the choice of fighting or fleeing, many of them appear to be escaping as fast as they can.

...Ukrainian soldiers may be better motivated, but the Russians still have far larger stores of weapons and ammunition. They can still inflict misery on civilians, as they did in today’s apparent attack on the electrical grid in Kharkiv and elsewhere in eastern Ukraine. Many other cruel options—horrific options—are still open even to a Russia whose soldiers will not fight. The nuclear plant in Zaporizhzhia remains inside the battle zone. Russia’s propagandists have been talking about nuclear weapons since the beginning of the war. Although Russian troops are not fighting in the north, they are still resisting the Ukrainian offensive in the south.

...We must expect that a Ukrainian victory, and certainly a victory in Ukraine’s understanding of the term, also brings about the end of Putin’s regime.

...The possibility of instability in Russia, a nuclear power, terrifies many. But it may now be unavoidable. And if that’s what is coming, we should anticipate it, plan for it, think about the possibilities as well as the dangers...

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/09/ukraine-victory-russia-putin/6...

Zelensky to Russia, tonight...
Text ( https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1569044030272454663/photo/1 )

- Christo Grozev @christogrozev | 3:23 PM · Sep 11, 2022

>128 margd: the thing now though the worse it looks for Putin the more dangerous he could be. I don't know what guardrails there are on Putin if he decides to go nuclear. We don't know if something is going to happen to Ukraines nuclear plants either.

>130 lriley: I keep thinking about how individual Russians have prevented nuclear disaster in the last minutes before. These days, the safety of billions might depend on people around Putin turning into resistant fighters in critical moments.

But Putin's push to expand Russia's borders still needs to be stopped.

David Frum @davidfrum | 2:38 PM · Sep 11, 2022:
Atrocities on the retreat don't improve a defeated aggressor's position on the battlefield. They do substantial harm to the defeated aggressor's future negotiating position when he must sue for peace.

When this war ends, Russia will still need to negotiate the lifting of western sanctions. New EU candidate member Ukraine will have a powerful veto over sanctions-relief. Russian leaders are deluded if they imagine they can just withdraw and sulk.

Russian leaders are also deluded if they imagine they will remain as easily in control of their own society after a military defeat of this scale. See fates of Argentine generals after Falklands 1982; Greek junta after Cyprus 1974. Defeat+ continuing sanctions? Even worse outlook

Defeated authoritarian regimes have a way of unraveling. Their forces become ineffective not only at foreign aggression, but domestic repression as well. See Russian empire 1905.

For now, Russia still has assets to bargain with: its hold on Crimea and eastern Ukraine, gas flows to EU this winter. Those assets are dwindling, and every atrocity is a new liability charged against those assets. Nuclear threats only make Russia's bargaining position worse.

Meanwhile, food prices are rising in Russia. https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/food-in
Graph ( https://twitter.com/davidfrum/status/1569041714580422656/photo/1 )

1905 is a best-case scenario: military defeat leading to regime liberalization. Russian history offers grimmer possibilities too. END

Olga Lautman 🇺🇦 @OlgaNYC1211 | 1:16 PM · Sep 11, 2022:
Analyst/researcher focus- Kremlin, intel, Eastern Europe. Senior Fellow @CEPA
Co-host @kremlinfile podcast Coordinator for @SyriaUkraineSUN

On his Telegram, Kremlin chief propagandist, Soloviev, called for the execution of Russian commanders who allowed the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kharkiv region 🤷‍♀️

Соловйов закликав розстрілювати російських командирів, які допустили контрнаступ ЗСУ
Головний пропагандист Кремля Володимир Соловйов закликав розстрілювати російських командирів, які допустили контрнаступ ...
https://inforesist.org/ua/solovjov-zaklikav-rozstrilyuvati-rosijskih-komandiriv-...

https://twitter.com/OlgaNYC1211/status/1569012837489451011/photo/1

ian bremmer @ianbremmer | 7:33 AM · Sep 12, 2022:
political scientist, author, teach at columbia sipa, columnist at time, president @eurasiagroup, @gzeromedia.

putin’s war in ukraine has been the most colossal misjudgment of any major leader since the end of the cold war.

it’s made far worse by putin’s dictatorship—the russian people have little idea of the scale and consequences of their leader’s disaster.

>134 margd: Bush’s Iraq invasion while less costly in our own manpower lost has to be somewhat close IMO. We put trillions of $’s into a country….more than less murdered and maimed untold numbers of Iraqi’s a very good % of which were innocents….others who might have fought against us really having no grudge beforehand. It’s just as catastrophic (at least for me) just in a different way. Absolutely unnecessary though. As bad as Hussein was he had nothing to do with 9-11…..part of the Bush administration’s justification for it. Afghanistan was rife with bad judgement too almost from the day it began.

>135 lriley: This is a good example of how leaders of the largest countries aren't held accountable for their massively bloody decisions. (I'm not sure I would call what happened in Iraq a presidential "mistake". Unlike Putin's invasion of Ukraine, didn't it do what Dubya wanted?)

At least Bush Jr. conceded without fuss to term limits. Putin will likely remain in power for a long time yet. It's still too easy for him to lock up protestors and rely on upper-story windows as unconventional political tools.

>135 lriley: Yeah, when I read tweet below, even I thought of the reserves and rural homes here in the US without water and/or plumbing, those without healthcare, and a frying planet in need of rescue:

Oleksiy Sorokin @mrsorokaa | 6:52 PM · Sep 11, 2022
Journalist, editor, manager 🇺🇦🇨🇦| @UofT 2018 | ex-Kyiv Post | now @kyivindependent

Today Russia fired 12 missiles, worth nearly $100 million in total (according to Forbes Ukraine), to shutdown electricity in four Ukrainian regions for several hours.

Meanwhile, millions of Russians still don’t have a sewerage.
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Indoor Plumbing Still a Pipe Dream for 20% of Russian Households, Reports Say
2 April 2019
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2019/04/02/indoor-plumbing-still-a-pipe-dream-for...

>136 aspirit: He was another who won through the electoral college and not the popular vote......but you're right in that he left the presidency without issue. I don't think I was the only one by far that thought Trump would try to pull anything and everything to remain in power. It became very clear well before 2020 and in the aftermath of the 2020 election it was one thing after another.

Julia Davis @JuliaDavisNews | 12:52 PM · Sep 12, 2022:
Columnist @TheDailyBeast , creator of the Russian Media Monitor, sanctioned by Russia, member of @TheEmmys. I watch Russian state TV, so you don't have to.

Meanwhile on Russian state TV: top propagandists urge a total blackout of Ukraine, with no electricity or running water. They argue that those whom they consider "their people" can be fed and warmed up later and the rest are "serving the U.S." to bring about Russia's destruction.

2:04 ( https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1569368457602387969 )
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In contrast to talking heads bravado, below is reality. Hope this guy's mom doesn't see him like this--although it IS "proof of life"... Ukraine doesn't follow Geneva Convention by posting such video of POW?* (I'd still a 1000x rather be a POW in Ukrainian hands than Russia's, though... Wonder how Ukraine is going to keep and feed the number of POWs they are said to now have?)

Ukraine Reporter @StateOfUkraine | 6:13 AM · Sep 12, 2022:
Reporting and translating news from Ukraine and Russia without the propaganda

Another example of how desperate the Russian military is for manpower. This recently captured Russian POW is a sailor from the Baltic Fleet who was given just 1 week of tank training before he was assigned to a tank crew and shipped off to Ukraine.

1:20 ( https://twitter.com/StateOfUkraine/status/1569267894164377600 )

* Guess it depends if it was state or reporter who filmed the POW, he wasn't coerced, and he knew he was being filmed--his eyes bandaged and all?
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2003/mar/28/broadcasting.Iraqandthemedia2

Michael McFaul McFaul | 2:52 PM · Sep 12, 2022:
Professor {frmr US ambassador to Russia}

For those still believing that Putin just wants Ukrainian neutrality or annexation of Donbas & therefore the West should pressure Zelensky to cut a deal, I hope you saw Medvedev's statement of demands today-- "тотальная капитуляция киевского режима на условиях России." 1/

or roughly in English, "a total capitulation of the Kyiv regime on Russia’s conditions.”

Stop theorizing about how "Russia" behaves based on abstract models, and start reading what Russian rulers say they want. 2/

https://t.me/medvedev_telegram/176
{Дмитрий Медведев✔
Некто Зеленский сказал, что он не будет вести диалог с теми, кто выдвигает ультиматумы. Нынешние «ультиматумы» – детская разминка перед требованиями будущего. И он их знает: тотальная капитуляция киевского режима на условиях России.
t.me/medvedev_telegram/176
1.9M views
Sep 12 at 03:20}

{Google translate: Someone Zelensky said that he would not engage in dialogue with those who put forward ultimatums. The current "ultimatums" are a children's warm-up for the demands of the future. And he knows them: the total capitulation of the Kyiv regime on Russia's terms.}

KyivPost @KyivPost | 6:11 PM · Sep 12, 2022:
It's sad to read what Medvedev writes because we're dealing with the human drama of irrelevance. He is an angry old man with a drinking problem who authors lampoons and has zero to look forward to. He capitulated a long time ago and will be soon forgotten.

Michael McFaul McFaul | 6:51 PM · Sep 12, 2022:
Medvedev has indeed become a very pathetic figure.

Will Vernon @BBCWillVernon | 3:20 AM · Sep 13, 2022:
Senior journalist, BBC News Moscow Bureau

Moscow confirms Russian teachers in Ukr's Kharkiv Region have been arrested by advancing Ukr forces. The teachers had been reportedly sent by Moscow to teach a Rus curriculum in schools in occupied Ukr territory. When Rus forces retreated, it seems the teachers were left behind.

The Kremlin has denied that any Russian teachers were in Kharkiv Region. The earlier statement by the Investigative Committee makes reference to “teachers who were giving lessons under the Russian curriculum on the territory of Kharkiv Oblast.”

The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 8:11 AM · Sep 13, 2022:
Independent English-language journalism in Ukraine.

⚡️Ukrainian intelligence: Russian occupiers begin leaving Crimea, southern Ukraine with their families.

An “urgent evacuation” of Russian proxies, intelligence officers, and military commanders is taking place, the Main Intelligence Directorate said.

The developments are a direct result of successful Ukrainian counteroffensives, the report said.

Well I never liked communists, don't like em now.Fought them up close, I'm wondering if you guys were supporting us Americans when we fought Stalin, Mao,Ho,CHe, Castro,Ortega,NK, Saint Gorby, and Putin. Now we just sent Mr Green T fortyfive billion some of us ask if sending this former comic who performed in videos wearing women's under wear, even one skit simulating playing the piano with his private member. A video making its way around shows big time partying going on in Kiev night clubs. well dressed kids ah well maybe its their last harrah before getting sent to the front I mean is this guy minding the store...AMDG...

143 Who is "you guys" in your question? (On further thought, I realized it doesn't matter.)

Somewhat randomly, I feel this thread needs a link to the LibraryThing List of the Month from this past March: https://www.librarything.com/list/43524/all/A-Ukraine-Reading-List

Mark Hertling @MarkHertling | 11:06 AM · Sep 13, 2022:
Retired soldier. Loves family, dedicated to nation. Studies leadership, nat’l security & healthcare. Commissioner, @usabmc
.
https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1569704142167506944

Ukraine's Army was likely as surprised as so many others with the speed & success of their Kharkiv offensive over the last five days. It is & continues to be brilliant.
But as one who saw both success & failure in combat, I have some concerns...
Here a 🧵on some thoughts. 1/

Like others, I'm euphoric about UA's advance in Kharkiv & Kherson & their continued active defense on the Donbas front.
A brilliant advance resulting from a solid maneuver plan, deception, technologically advanced weapons, use of intelligence, leadership & morale...

But there's lots of fighting remaining.
-RU forces fled dozens of villages in Kharkiv Oblast (an 12k sq mile area, 1/2 of West Virginia), & have relocated to Belgorod in Russia or Luhansk (about 10K sq mi, size of Vermont). 4/

RU commanders will likely try to defend the key logistics hub of Kupyansk on the Donets River.
Map ( https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1569704157233221632/photo/1 )

To the south (in northern Donetsk), RU forces are likely shoring defenses and probing with artillery near Sloviansk, Spirne, Mykolaivka, & other cities, believing the UA might continue their advance...while RU military & their families leave those locations. 5/

In Kherson Oblast (size of Maryland), there's not as much attention, but UA continues offensive operations there.
Remember, RU forces that moved there are now fighting & sustaining casualties in an attrition fight.
I still see mass RU POWs in the future. 6/

So, what are my concerns?
Three things:
Tempo, fatigue, black swans.

First, tempo. 7/
Tempo is defined in US Army doctrine (ADP 3-90) as "the rate of speed & rhythm of military operations with respect to the enemy's activities."... "Don't go too far, too fast, without thinking about everyone that's trying to keep up (artillery, intelligence, fuel, ammo, supplies)." 9/...

2d Item: Fatigue..."Fatigue makes cowards of us all."
Forces in the attack can attack for about 4-5 days without breaking down.
That's not equipment, that's human beings. 12/
...units will begin to fail if they aren't rested on day 5 of an offensive.
...commanders/leaders start making really bad decisions after 3 days of little/no sleep. 13/
...UA forces are whipped right now. Not just caused by movement & lack of sleep, but emotions associated with fighting. I anticipate some needed "pauses." 14/

Finally, "black swans."
"An unpredictable event beyond what is normally expected in a situation that may have severe consequences. Black swans are characterized by unpredictability, rarity, severe effects & the widespread insistence they were obvious in hindsight." 15/

-What are the effects of Putin targeting power infrastructure in many UKR cities?
-What are effects of damage to Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station?
-How will UA handle the capture of thousands of RU POWs?
-What is the status of UKR economy, labor market...& grain shipments? 16/
-Will there be a coup at the Kremlin? Who might succeed Putin, and what will it mean?
-Will UKR attempt to recover Crimea?
-What has become of UKR citizens (and children) who have been shipped to camps and unknown RU locations?
-What if RU uses WMD? 17/

All are Issues that have "severe consequences" that require thought, as we all cheer UA's actions on the battlefield...I'm thankful for those in Ukraine who continue to fight for their sovereignty against an illegal invasion...and those who support them! 18/18

Amazingly strong support for Ukraine From German leader facing a cold winter!

The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 2:19 PM · Sep 13, 2022:
⚡️German government: Scholz told Putin to withdraw troops from Ukraine.

According to the German government, during a phone call on Sept. 13, Scholz urged Putin to reach a diplomatic solution based on respect for Ukraine's territorial integrity and sovereignty.

“The Russians are in trouble,” U.S. official says of latest war analysis

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/09/12/ukraine-russia-retre...

The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 10:53 AM · Sep 13, 2022:
⚡️Financial Times: US, allies discuss providing Ukraine with fighter aircraft.

The U.S. and its allies have been discussing Ukraine’s longer-term needs, such as air defenses, the Financial Times reported, citing an anonymous senior U.S. defense official.

They are also discussing whether to provide Ukraine with fighter aircraft in the “medium to longer-term” perspective.

The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 5:04 PM · Sep 13, 2022:
⚡️Deputy Prime Minister: Russia asked Ukraine for negotiations amid counteroffensive.

Olga Stefanishyna told France24 that Russian officials had reached out to Ukraine to negotiate in recent days, a move she believes is aimed at stopping the rapid Ukrainian advance.
_______________________________________________________

The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 3:54 PM · Sep 13, 2022:
⚡️Mayor: Russian forces retreating from occupied Melitopol to Crimea.

Ivan Fedorov, the mayor of Melitopol city in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, said that columns of Russian military hardware were detected further south in Chonhar, a village in Kherson Oblast at the entrance to Crimea.
_______________________________________________________

The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 8:09 PM · Sep 13, 2022:
⚡️Ukraine’s military strikes Kakhovka bridge in Kherson again, halting Russian forces' repairs.

Ukraine's Southern Operational Command reported on Sept. 12 that they also struck nine Russian positions and three groupings of personnel and equipment.

The command also said it destroyed one Russian Mil Mi-8 helicopter, one Su-24 aircraft, and one pontoon crossing in Darivka in Kherson Oblast.

Tristan Snell @TristanSnell | 5:33 PM · Sep 13, 2022:
Lawyer, founder http://MainStreet.law repping small/mid-size businesses, entrepreneurs, creators. Prosecuted Trump University @ NY AG. Commentator MSNBC CNN.

BREAKING: Russia funneled over $300 million into political parties and candidates around the world — including the US — since 2014, according to a new US intelligence review.

Brexit, Trump, Bolsonaro, Orban, Le Pen — there’s a reason for the rising tide of fascism: the Kremlin.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/09/13/united-states-russia...

And so it begins...the most dangerous times.

Dmitri @wartranslated | 6:51 AM · Sep 14, 2022:
Zelensky's visit to Izyum is not only morale-boosting but also a great PR move. You can see it in the reactions of Russians asking why is this allowed at all.
Text English
Text Russian
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Kremlin TV Airs Call for Russia to Admit ‘Serious Defeat’
‘HUMILIATING’
Julia Davis | Sep. 13, 2022

Even the most war-happy Putin loyalists are now pushing for the recognition of recent “failures” Russia has suffered in Ukraine.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/russian-state-tv-declares-its-time-to-admit-seriou...
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Mark MacKinnon markmackinnon | 10:40 AM · Sep 14, 2022:
Senior International Correspondent for The Globe and Mail. Now based in London, after stops in Moscow, the Middle East, and Beijing.

Azerbaijan's attack on Armenia is a nightmare scenario for Putin. His forces are already overstretched and on the retreat in Ukraine, now he has to find some troops to send to Armenia's aid - or the CSTO, Russia's answer to NATO, will be exposed as a paper tiger...

Quote Tweet
Neil Hauer @NeilPHauer | 6h
Russia, Ukraine & Caucasus: Armenia, Georgia, Chechnya etc. Stories CNN, CBC, @NYMag, guardian, @AJEnglish etc. 🇨🇦

❗Armenian PM Pashinyan says Armenia has invoked article 4 of the CSTO charter, the alliance's mutual defence clause, in order to evict Azeri troops from Armenia's territory and restore territorial integrity. First time CSTO article 4 has been invoked
https://news.am/arm/news/720173.html
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Dmitri @wartranslated | 6:30 AM · Sep 14, 2022:
There are reports of clashes/artillery shelling at the border of Ukraine and Russia near Belgorod. "Belgorod Informer" channel claims the Russian border patrol at "Verigovka" checkpoint has "retreated".

Likely to be a one-off, however.
Map ( https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1569997039869599744/photo/1 )

ian bremmer @ianbremmer | 11:01 AM · Sep 14, 2022:
political scientist, author, teach at columbia sipa, columnist at time, president @eurasiagroup
, @gzeromedia

for those keeping track at home, 12 “threw himself from window/shot himself 7 times in the head” russian oligarch deaths this year so far

Table ( https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1570065155089645568/photo/1 )