Vitaliy N. Katsenelson

The author suggests that sideways markets will be a main feature of the coming decade. At first it appears that he only bases his opinion on the historic record, since from 1900 onwards markets have mostly gone sideways for a number of years after periods of fast growth and high valuation.

However, from chapter 15 he provides a useful macroeconomic section that bolsters his argument with a reflection on the world's 2nd and 3rd largest ecomomies (China and Japan) with regard to growth and debt. Basically he is saying that debt levels are very high everywhere (particularly Japanese government debt) and that we have now reached a global limit in new debt issuance. For here onwards debt is either reduced (deflation) or paid back in devalued currency (inflation) but whichever route is taken he foresees a bumpy ride, hence the sideways market.

The book covers at some length the techniques of value investing to provide protection in most economic environments and in this respect is similar to Anthony Bolton's book "Investing Against the Tide". The author doesn't attach much importance to interviewing management but does agree with strong balance sheets and a defensible competitive advantage.

Overall an excellent new book portraying the risks of extrapolating data.… (plus d'informations)