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Chargement... The Fourth Turning Is Here: What the Seasons of History Tell Us about How and When This Crisis Will End (édition 2023)par Neil Howe (Auteur)
Information sur l'oeuvreThe Fourth Turning Is Here: What the Seasons of History Tell Us about How and When This Crisis Will End par Neil Howe
   Aucun Actuellement, il n'y a pas de discussions au sujet de ce livre.  waldhaus1 | May 2, 2024 |   ritaer | Nov 21, 2023 | On a more personal level, its both depressing and reassuring in this exact moment in acknowledging that we are in a dire moment historically that is far more likely to get worse than better over the next 5-10 years -- but that regardless of what happens in the near term, it should start to get better about a decade out. The original from the 90s was a book I've given away many copies of over the years -- and I expect to do the same with this one. (2023 Review 7) (  )1  bohannon | Oct 15, 2023 | 1 cakecop | Aug 27, 2023 | aucune critique | ajouter une critique
History.
Politics.
Sociology.
Nonfiction.
HTML:The visionary behind the bestselling phenomenon The Fourth Turning looks once again to America's past to predict our future in this startling and hopeful prophecy for how our present era of civil unrest will resolve over the next ten yearsâ??and what our lives will look like once it has. Twenty-five years ago, Neil Howe and the late William Strauss dazzled the world with a provocative new theory of American history. Looking back at the last 500 years, they'd uncovered a distinct pattern: modern history moves in cycles, each one lasting roughly eighty to one hundred years, the length of a long human life, with each cycle composed of four erasâ??or "turnings"â??that always arrive in the same order and each last about twenty years. The last of these erasâ??the fourth turningâ??was always the most perilous, a period of civic upheaval and national mobilization as traumatic and transformative as the New Deal and World War II, the Civil War, or the American Revolution. Now, right on schedule, our own fourth turning has arrived. And so Neil Howe has returned with an extraordinary new prediction. What we see all around usâ??the polarization, the growing threat of civil conflict and global warâ??will culminate by the early 2030s in a climax that poses great danger and yet also holds great promise, perhaps even bringing on America's next golden age. Every generation alive today will play a vital role in determining how this crisis is resolved, for good or ill. Illuminating, sobering, yet ultimately empowering, The Fourth Turning Is Here takes you back into history and deep into the collective personality of each living generation to make sense of our current crisis, explore how all of us will be differently affected by the political, social, and economic challenges we'll face in the decade to come, and reveal how our country, our communities, and our families can best prepare to meet thes Aucune description trouvée dans une bibliothèque |
Discussion en coursAucunCouvertures populaires
 Google Books — Chargement...GenresClassification décimale de Melvil (CDD)303.4973Social sciences Social Sciences; Sociology and anthropology Social Processes Social change Social forecastsClassification de la Bibliothèque du CongrèsÉvaluationMoyenne: (4.86)
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What I found hardest in all this reading was having a clear sense of the differences between generations. While he describes them, and names them also for the eras they live through and typify (such as Boomers for the baby boom generation.). I found myself trying to establish a clear expectation for any named generation.
He of course admits that each named generation has a spectrum of personalities. He says the event that forms a generation is the younger generation distinguishing itself from its parents along with the constellation of social problems it deals with.
Crisis eras are defined by the major wars associated with them and accord about every 80 to 90 years. He refers to a secular which is just less than a century and is defined by the length of a long human lifetime.
The fourth turning is the time when the unraveling turns to a crisis and is likely to include a major war. How the Prophet generation and Hero generation that are the leaders for that time deal with that challenge determine the historical outcome.
The US has been fortunate in that with the possible exception of the civil war all its fourth turnings have been associated with wars that ultimately result in improved living standards and a more united society. He believes we are in a Fourth turning now and it will end in the early 2030s. He hopes for a constructive outcome but his main point is it will be a time of crisis and unrest.
Certainly the picturing history as a sequence of seasons helps to form a coherent picture of events. It helps the historical story hang together.
There is always the danger is that his belief in the season hypothesis colors the way he emphasizes various historical events to support the theory of turning. Sort of a self fulfilling prophecy. Still it is true we certainly identify social generations.: Boomers, Xers, and Millennials to name the major contemporary generations. The GI generation was the generation that spent its youth in World War 2, and the silent generation the generation of the Great Depression.
If a Fourth turning requires a season of awakening and redefining of national purpose, and if we are at that point now perhaps that is why we are on hold waiting for new younger leaders. I am not sure any of his definitions are tight enough to allow for the possibility of refutation as time passes and the time of a new generation arises. Still it offers an interesting insight into past and current events. (